Topics on Inequality: The Changing Household Composition and Implications for Policy Coordination

不平等话题：家庭结构的变化及其对政策协调的影响

• 批准号: 0079504
• 负责人: Jose-Victor Rios-Rull
• 金额: $ 23.63万
• 依托单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-08-15 至 2004-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0079504&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Topics; Inequality; Changing; Household; Composition

This project consists of two parts concerned with the determinants as well as the implications of inequality both between people and across countries. The first part studies recent rather dramatic changes in the composition of U.S. households. Between the mid seventies and the beginning of the nineties the share of non-married females grew dramatically in the U.S. (from 17% to 30% in the 30 to 44 age group). At the same time that people are living less as married couples. there has been a steady increase in out of wedlock child-raising that increased the share of single mothers from 12%o to 17% of the total female population, while total fertility remained constant over the same period. There has been another major change in the sane time period: the structure of wages is much different now than twenty five years ago. There has been a modest increase in average wages. together with fairly large increases in the ratio of wages of college to non-college educated and in the ratio of women's to men's wages. This project investigates the contribution of the changes in wages to the aforementioned demographic changes. To this end, a model is constructed where agents differ in age. sex, education. wages, and in the type of family they live. Agents search for a mate, make marital status and fertility decisions and invest in their children's education. The model is calibrated so that it replicates the economic and demographic characteristics of the mid seventies. Next, the model is studied with only changes in wages, absolute and relative (across sexes and education levels) to see how much of the changes in the type of family that people live in can be traced back to changes in wages. The project may have far reaching implications. The findings of a recent body of empirical literature indicate that factors that happen early in life. before age 16, account for most of the differences in lifelong achievements of people. Moreover, it seems that the type of family where children grow up contributes significantly to shape those achievements: the presence of both parents yields more successful children than one parent alone. This implies that a change in household structure of the magnitude observed can shape the characteristics of the next generation of Americans, not only in terms of their average achievements, but probably and in a more dramatic fashion, for the characteristics of inequality. Understanding the mechanisms that generate the changes in family type seems to be a very important task.The second part of the project attempts to understand how differences in the wealth and productivity of nations affect the type of taxing policies that they choose. How do taxes of poorer countries compare to those of richer countries? Why does the U.S. tax capital more intensively than Europe? To answer these questions the investigator develops a model where governments are benevolent towards their own citizens, and choose how to best collect revenue thorough different forms of taxation (corporate taxation, and personal labor income and capital taxation) at different rates. Moreover, these governments cannot commit to future policies, they can always change their mind. In this model government policies of rich and poor countries are interrelated since capital can flow across countries. This part of the project might also shed some new light on the issue of whether it is a good idea that governments can coordinate their policies.

该项目包括两个部分，涉及人与人之间和国家之间不平等的决定因素和影响。 第一部分研究了美国家庭组成最近发生的相当戏剧性的变化。从70年代中期到90年代初，美国未婚女性的比例急剧上升（30至44岁年龄组的比例从17%上升到30%）。与此同时，人们的生活越来越少。非婚生子女的抚养稳步增加，使单身母亲在女性总人口中的比例从12%增加到17%，而同期的总生育率保持不变。在这段正常的时间里，还有另一个重大的变化：现在的工资结构与25年前大不相同。平均工资略有增加。大学生与非大学生的工资比例以及妇女与男子的工资比例都有较大幅度的提高。本项目调查工资变化对上述人口变化的影响。为此，构建了一个模型，其中代理人年龄不同。性教育工资，以及他们生活的家庭类型。代理人寻找配偶，决定婚姻状况和生育决定，并投资于子女的教育。该模型经过校准，以复制70年代中期的经济和人口特征。接下来，研究模型，只考虑工资的绝对和相对变化（跨性别和教育水平），以了解人们生活的家庭类型的变化在多大程度上可以追溯到工资的变化。 该项目可能具有深远的影响。最近的一系列实证文献的发现表明，生命早期发生的因素。16岁之前的差异是人们一生成就的主要差异。此外，儿童成长的家庭类型似乎对这些成就的形成有很大的贡献：父母双方都在场比父母一方单独在场更能培养出成功的孩子。这意味着，所观察到的家庭结构的巨大变化可以塑造下一代美国人的特征，不仅在他们的平均成就方面，而且可能以更戏剧性的方式塑造不平等的特征。 理解家庭类型变化的机制似乎是一个非常重要的任务。本项目的第二部分试图了解各国财富和生产率的差异如何影响他们选择的税收政策类型。较贫穷国家的税收与较富裕国家的税收相比如何？ 为什么美国对资本征税比欧洲更密集？ 为了回答这些问题，研究者开发了一个模型，政府对自己的公民是仁慈的，并选择如何最好地收集收入通过不同形式的税收（公司税，个人劳动收入和资本税）在不同的税率。 此外，这些政府不能承诺未来的政策，他们总是可以改变主意。 在这种模式中，富国和穷国的政府政策是相互关联的，因为资本可以在国家之间流动。该项目的这一部分也可能对政府协调政策是否是一个好主意的问题提供一些新的见解。