BIOCOMPLEXITY INCUBATION ACTIVITY: How Physical-Biological Coupling in the Western Arctic Ocean Influences Marine Mammal Abundance and Native Subsistence Harvests

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Abstract: Biocomplexity-Incubation Activity: How Physical-Biological Coupling in theWestern Arctic Ocean Influences Marine Mammal Abundance and NativeSubsistence HarvestsMarine mammal distribution, relative abundance and availability to Native subsistence hunters in the Western Arctic likely are influenced by oceanographic variability resulting from interannual variation in both weather patterns in the Arctic and longer-term global climate fluctuations. This variability influences the development of localized "hot spots" at which elevated concentrations of marine mammal plankton prey, and aggregations of marine mammals, are found. Indigenous knowledge demonstrates that such "hot spots" are favorable hunting locations. To investigate Biocomplexity in the Arctic marine environment, this effort will develop a five-year research program to examine trophic cascades from the "bottom up" (i.e., from physical -biological interactions to human consumption of marine mammals). The central hypothesis is: Marine mammal distribution, relative abundance and availability to Native subsistence hunters can be modeled in relation to variability in plankton production and food web structure which are linked to physical conditions in the Western Arctic. This is a one-year Incubation Activity (IA) to support the development of a research plan that effectively addresses this question. The IA will be collaborative and includes physical and biological oceanographers, modelers, marine mammalogists and Alaska Native representatives. Incubation activities will include: 1) identification of existing relevant data as background for our modeling and field work; 2) assembling a team of scientists and Native representatives with relevant expertise and knowledge; and 3) the conduct of two planning workshops with this team to develop a comprehensive research program to focused on the central hypothesis.