Modeling Refugee and Internally Displaced Flows

难民和境内流离失所者流建模

• 批准号: 0099313
• 负责人: Will Moore
• 金额: $ 4.9万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-05-01 至 2002-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0099313&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Refugee; Internally; Displaced; Flows

What events might transpire that would lead someone to consider abandoning her/his home and possessions, and take flight to seek refuge elsewhere, either within or outside of her/his country? People who, owing to a reasonable fear of persecution, take such action and seek refuge abroad are recognized under international law as refugees. Those who seek refuge in mountains, forests, or with relatives within their own borders are recognized as internally displaced persons. The project explores the etiology of flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.The project addresses four questions:I) What characteristics make a country likely to produce refugees and internally displaced persons? 2) How can we distinguish countries that produce greater numbers of internally displaced persons from those that produce greater numbers of refugees? 3) What can explain greater flows of refugees to one bordering country rather than another? 4) Are the factors and processes that produce `voluntary migrant' flows distinguishable from those that produce `forced migration' flows? That is, do economic factors influence refugee and internally displaced person (R-IDP) flows?The literature on this topic is interdisciplinary, and thus suffers from limited communication across disciplinary boundaries. As such, no comprehensive study exists that seeks to explore the usefulness of the many hypotheses scattered throughout the literature. In addition, the work on this topic is largely idiographic and descriptive: there are few comparative case studies, a relatively limited number of theoretically driven studies, and very few large-n, statistical analyses. This investigation makes a significant contribution by creating a comprehensive, theoretically driven set of hypotheses, and examining them using a global data set.Like many scholars who work on migration, the investigator employs a simple cost-benefit framework for studying these flows. The major argument with respect to the first question is that countries where people feel that their lives are threatened by violence have a greater likelihood of producing refugees than countries where this is not the case. This is not a novel argument, nor is it particularly surprising. Yet, what is surprising is that few analyses of the etiology of refugee and internally displaced person flows do not move on to ask the additional questions listed above, and none of them have sought to test hypothetical answers. With respect to the second question, the investigator argues that policies toward both emigration and immigration, the level of violence in surrounding countries, and the border terrain will separate those countries that produce a high level of internally displaced relative to refugees from those that produce a high level of refugees relative to internally displaced. These same variables, save emigration policy, should help determine which country refugees seek asylum in. Finally, by including measures of relative wages in the regressions that address questions two and three, the investigator will be able to address question four.The investigator assembles a dataset for a global sample covering the period 1965-1998. Attention is given to both validity and reliability issues. Finally, the hypotheses are examined using relevant statistical techniques.This project enhances our understanding of the topic and produces a dataset that will be of use to numerous scholars interested in the topic.

可能发生的事件会导致某人考虑放弃其家园和财产，并逃往国内或国外其他地方寻求庇护？根据国际法，出于对迫害的合理恐惧而采取这种行动并在国外寻求庇护的人被承认为难民。那些在山区、森林中或在本国境内的亲戚家中寻求庇护的人被视为境内流离失所者。该项目探讨了难民和国内流离失所者流动的根源，并解决了四个问题：一）一个国家有哪些特点可能产生难民和国内流离失所者？2)我们如何区分产生更多境内流离失所者的国家和产生更多难民的国家？3)什么可以解释更多的难民流向一个邻国而不是另一个？4)产生“自愿移民”流动的因素和过程与产生“被迫移民”流动的因素和过程是否有区别？也就是说，经济因素是否影响难民和国内流离失所者的流动？关于这一主题的文献是跨学科的，因此跨学科界限的交流有限。因此，没有全面的研究存在，试图探索分散在文献中的许多假设的有用性。此外，关于这一主题的工作在很大程度上是具体的和描述性的：很少有比较案例研究，理论驱动的研究数量相对有限，很少有大n的统计分析。这项调查作出了重大贡献，创造了一个全面的，理论驱动的一套假设，并检查他们使用的全球数据集。像许多学者谁在移民工作，调查员采用了一个简单的成本效益框架来研究这些流动。关于第一个问题的主要论点是，人民感到其生命受到暴力威胁的国家产生难民的可能性比不存在这种情况的国家更大。这并不是一个新颖的论点，也不是特别令人惊讶。然而，令人惊讶的是，对难民和境内流离失所者流动的原因进行的分析很少不进一步提出上述其他问题，而且没有一项分析试图检验假设的答案。关于第二个问题，调查员认为，移民和迁出移民政策、周边国家的暴力程度以及边界地形将把国内流离失所者人数相对于难民人数较多的国家与难民人数相对于国内流离失所者人数较多的国家区分开来。除了移民政策之外，这些同样的变量应该有助于决定难民在哪个国家寻求庇护。最后，通过在解决问题二和问题三的回归中纳入相对工资的计量，调查人员将能够解决问题四，调查人员收集了1965-1998年期间全球抽样的数据集。注意有效性和可靠性问题。最后，使用相关的统计技术对假设进行检验。该项目增强了我们对该主题的理解，并产生了一个数据集，可供众多对此主题感兴趣的学者使用。