Modeling Refugee and Internally Displaced Flows

难民和境内流离失所者流建模

• 批准号: 0099313
• 负责人: Will Moore
• 金额: $ 4.9万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-05-01 至 2002-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0099313&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Refugee; Internally; Displaced; Flows

What events might transpire that would lead someone to consider abandoning her/his home and possessions, and take flight to seek refuge elsewhere, either within or outside of her/his country? People who, owing to a reasonable fear of persecution, take such action and seek refuge abroad are recognized under international law as refugees. Those who seek refuge in mountains, forests, or with relatives within their own borders are recognized as internally displaced persons. The project explores the etiology of flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.The project addresses four questions:I) What characteristics make a country likely to produce refugees and internally displaced persons? 2) How can we distinguish countries that produce greater numbers of internally displaced persons from those that produce greater numbers of refugees? 3) What can explain greater flows of refugees to one bordering country rather than another? 4) Are the factors and processes that produce `voluntary migrant' flows distinguishable from those that produce `forced migration' flows? That is, do economic factors influence refugee and internally displaced person (R-IDP) flows?The literature on this topic is interdisciplinary, and thus suffers from limited communication across disciplinary boundaries. As such, no comprehensive study exists that seeks to explore the usefulness of the many hypotheses scattered throughout the literature. In addition, the work on this topic is largely idiographic and descriptive: there are few comparative case studies, a relatively limited number of theoretically driven studies, and very few large-n, statistical analyses. This investigation makes a significant contribution by creating a comprehensive, theoretically driven set of hypotheses, and examining them using a global data set.Like many scholars who work on migration, the investigator employs a simple cost-benefit framework for studying these flows. The major argument with respect to the first question is that countries where people feel that their lives are threatened by violence have a greater likelihood of producing refugees than countries where this is not the case. This is not a novel argument, nor is it particularly surprising. Yet, what is surprising is that few analyses of the etiology of refugee and internally displaced person flows do not move on to ask the additional questions listed above, and none of them have sought to test hypothetical answers. With respect to the second question, the investigator argues that policies toward both emigration and immigration, the level of violence in surrounding countries, and the border terrain will separate those countries that produce a high level of internally displaced relative to refugees from those that produce a high level of refugees relative to internally displaced. These same variables, save emigration policy, should help determine which country refugees seek asylum in. Finally, by including measures of relative wages in the regressions that address questions two and three, the investigator will be able to address question four.The investigator assembles a dataset for a global sample covering the period 1965-1998. Attention is given to both validity and reliability issues. Finally, the hypotheses are examined using relevant statistical techniques.This project enhances our understanding of the topic and produces a dataset that will be of use to numerous scholars interested in the topic.

哪些事件可能会导致某人考虑放弃自己的房屋和财产，并乘飞机在她/他的国家内部或外部寻求庇护？由于对迫害的合理恐惧，采取这种行动并在国外寻求避难所的人们被认为是难民。那些在山区，森林或与亲戚之间寻求庇护的人被认为是内部流离失所者。该项目探讨了难民和内部流离失所者的流量的病因。该项目解决了四个问题：i）哪些特征使一个国家可能产生难民和内部流离失所者？ 2）我们如何区分产生更多内部流离失所者与产生更多难民的国家？ 3）什么能解释到一个越来越多的国家而不是另一个国家的难民流动？ 4）是否会产生“自愿移民”流的因素和过程与产生“强迫移民”流动的因素和过程？也就是说，经济因素会影响难民和内部流离失所者（R-IDP）流动吗？有关该主题的文献是跨学科的，因此跨学科界限的沟通有限。因此，没有任何综合研究试图探索散布在整个文献中的许多假设的有用性。此外，关于该主题的工作在很大程度上是印度和描述性的：比较案例研究很少，理论上驱动的研究数量相对有限，并且很少有大N统计分析。这项调查通过创建一组全面的，理论上驱动的假设并使用全球数据集对其进行检查，从而做出了重大贡献。就像许多从事迁移的学者一样，研究人员采用了一个简单的成本效益框架来研究这些流。关于第一个问题的主要论点是，人们认为自己的生命受到暴力的威胁的国家比事实并非如此的国家更有可能产生难民。这不是一个新颖的论点，也不是尤其令人惊讶。然而，令人惊讶的是，很少有对难民和内部流离失所者流动的病因的分析并没有继续提出上面列出的其他问题，而且它们都没有试图检验假设的答案。关于第二个问题，调查人员认为，对移民和移民的政策，周围国家的暴力水平以及边境地形将分开那些在内部流离失所的国家，相对于难民，那些相对于内部流离失所者而产生高水平的难民。这些相同的变量（除了移民政策）应有助于确定哪个国家难民寻求庇护。最后，通过在解决问题第二和第三的回归中包括相对工资的衡量标准，研究人员将能够解决问题四。研究人员为涵盖1965 - 1998年期间的全球样本组装了一个数据集。注意有效性和可靠性问题。最后，使用相关的统计技术对假设进行了研究。该项目增强了我们对主题的理解，并产生了一个数据集，该数据集将用于对该主题感兴趣的众多学者。