Modeling Refugee and Internally Displaced Flows

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What events might transpire that would lead someone to consider abandoning her/his home and possessions, and take flight to seek refuge elsewhere, either within or outside of her/his country? People who, owing to a reasonable fear of persecution, take such action and seek refuge abroad are recognized under international law as refugees. Those who seek refuge in mountains, forests, or with relatives within their own borders are recognized as internally displaced persons. The project explores the etiology of flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.The project addresses four questions:I) What characteristics make a country likely to produce refugees and internally displaced persons? 2) How can we distinguish countries that produce greater numbers of internally displaced persons from those that produce greater numbers of refugees? 3) What can explain greater flows of refugees to one bordering country rather than another? 4) Are the factors and processes that produce `voluntary migrant' flows distinguishable from those that produce `forced migration' flows? That is, do economic factors influence refugee and internally displaced person (R-IDP) flows?The literature on this topic is interdisciplinary, and thus suffers from limited communication across disciplinary boundaries. As such, no comprehensive study exists that seeks to explore the usefulness of the many hypotheses scattered throughout the literature. In addition, the work on this topic is largely idiographic and descriptive: there are few comparative case studies, a relatively limited number of theoretically driven studies, and very few large-n, statistical analyses. This investigation makes a significant contribution by creating a comprehensive, theoretically driven set of hypotheses, and examining them using a global data set.Like many scholars who work on migration, the investigator employs a simple cost-benefit framework for studying these flows. The major argument with respect to the first question is that countries where people feel that their lives are threatened by violence have a greater likelihood of producing refugees than countries where this is not the case. This is not a novel argument, nor is it particularly surprising. Yet, what is surprising is that few analyses of the etiology of refugee and internally displaced person flows do not move on to ask the additional questions listed above, and none of them have sought to test hypothetical answers. With respect to the second question, the investigator argues that policies toward both emigration and immigration, the level of violence in surrounding countries, and the border terrain will separate those countries that produce a high level of internally displaced relative to refugees from those that produce a high level of refugees relative to internally displaced. These same variables, save emigration policy, should help determine which country refugees seek asylum in. Finally, by including measures of relative wages in the regressions that address questions two and three, the investigator will be able to address question four.The investigator assembles a dataset for a global sample covering the period 1965-1998. Attention is given to both validity and reliability issues. Finally, the hypotheses are examined using relevant statistical techniques.This project enhances our understanding of the topic and produces a dataset that will be of use to numerous scholars interested in the topic.