Urban Containment Programs and the Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Hazards: Are Cities Being Engineered to be Safe as Well as Smart?

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ABSTRACTProposal: CMS-0100012PI: Raymond BurbyInstitution: University of North Carolina at Chapel HillDate: July 10, 2001ABSTRACT: Urban Containment Programs and the Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Hazards: Are Cities Being Engineered to Be Safe as Well as "Smart" "Smart Growth" is now being advocated in the United States by federal agencies, industry, and professional associations in order to bring about more efficient, environmentally sensitive, and livable urban communities. One key tenet of smart growth is containment of urban sprawl through the use of regulatory growth boundaries, greenbelts, and curtailment of water and sewer extensions. Smart growth and urban containment, however, may have a serious unintended consequence: increased vulnerability of urban development and related civil infrastructure systems to natural hazards due to increased development pressure. In this interdisciplinary project (civil engineering and urban planning) we will document the dimensions of this threat and identify engineering and other measures that can be used to counter it. The study will focus on a paired sample of four metropolitan areas. Two metropolitan areas have had urban containment programs in place for twenty or more years: Portland, Oregon and San Diego, California. They will be paired with neighboring Vancouver/Clark County, Washington and Orange County, California, respectively, which do not have containment policies. Several hundred parcels within each metropolitan area will be randomly sampled to determine the change in the value of parcels and intensity of development before and after containment began. Data will also be collected on a range of other factors that can affect development (e.g., hazard mitigation and other infrastructure standards and development regulations, parcel size, soils and slopes, accessibility, public services, and nearby development trends). Regression models will be used to isolate the effects of containment while controlling statistically for other factors that can affect development and value. Then, using ratios of infrastructure (roads, bridges, water, sewerage, and electricity) to housing units of various types, the degree to which containment programs increase the potential for losses to civil infrastructure systems will be estimated. The development of engineering standards for the built environment and planning standards for contained urban growth will be explored through discussions with representatives of federal agencies, industry trade associations, and engineering and planning professional associations. The implications of the study findings for engineering urban growth will help to ensure that "smart growth" now being advocated widely is also "safe growth."