Interactive Ensembles: A New Strategy for Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Predictability Research

交互式集成：海洋-大气耦合可预测性研究的新策略

• 批准号: 0122859
• 负责人: Benjamin Kirtman
• 金额: $ 40万
• 依托单位: Institute of Global Environment and Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-15 至 2005-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0122859&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Interactive; Ensembles; New; Strategy; Coupled

This project will test a new idea related to the prediction of seasonal to interannual climate using coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AGCM and OGCM, respectively). The methodology builds on the notion that ensembles of AGCM realizations (probabilistic predictions) can be used to reduce the model "noise" or non-meaningful signal in the predicted fields, and isolate and improve the climate signal at the air-sea interface. The multiple realizations, or solutions, of a particular AGCM, or multiple realizations from different AGCMs, will be coupled to a single OGCM and the ensemble mean atmospheric fluxes will be used to drive the ocean model and make the coupled climate probabilistic predictions. If successful, this project could significantly improve climate predictions at extended range to interannual time scales.

该项目将测试一种新的想法，即利用大气-海洋环流耦合模式（分别为AGCM和OGCM）预测季节到年际气候。 该方法建立在这样的概念上，即AGCM实现的集合（概率预测）可用于减少预测领域中的模型“噪音”或无意义的信号，并隔离和改善海气界面的气候信号。 特定AGCM的多个实现或解决方案，或来自不同AGCM的多个实现，将耦合到单个OGCM，并且集合平均大气通量将用于驱动海洋模式并进行耦合气候概率预测。 如果成功的话，这个项目可以大大改善气候预测在扩展范围到年际时间尺度。