ITR/AP(Geo): Collaborative Proposal For First Generation Model And Data Assimilation System To Reduce Volcanic Hazards

0130602康纳这笔赠款由NSF/信息技术研究-小额赠款计划和美国国家科学基金会/仪器和设施计划的资金支持，将使第一代火山灾害评估数据和模型同化系统的开发成为可能。 从本质上讲，该系统将使用贝叶斯预测技术来构建灾害估计，其中包括先前的地质信息和近实时数据类型。主要目标是通过应用信息技术方法，表明即使在火山危机期间，也可以顺利地将这些不同的地质数据类型结合起来，以改进对灾害和风险的估计。重点将放在与火山熔岩（火山灰）的扩散和积累有关的危害上，这既是因为这种火山危害的重要性，也是因为我们以前在预测火山熔岩危害方面的经验。 模型将用于将几个火山（科利马、塞罗内格罗、蒙特塞拉特、波波卡特普塔尔）观测到的火山灰层与一系列输入参数联系起来，包括喷发持续时间、初始气体含量和气象条件。 我们计划探索几种技术（反演，简化模型，数据库开发），直接与火山灰沉降模型中使用的参数估计观测到的火山变形模式。该系统将使用并行算法来构建，以利用廉价和广泛可用的PC集群。 通过ITR赠款的支持，我们计划首次清楚地展示通过系统地将地质记录、过程模型和近实时监测结果联系起来所实现的巨大优势。对于火山灰积累的危害，这种方法将进一步导致一个清晰的认识之间的联系变形，岩浆过程，火山灰分散和积累的基本参数。在这个意义上，这里所提倡的系统方法的结果将为最有可能减少火山灾害的火山学研究提供指导。 这项研究将作为迈阿密大学、南佛罗里达大学和西南研究所（非营利组织）之间的合作提案进行。此外，与布里斯托大学的国际合作将为该项目带来火山喷发扩散建模方面的专门知识和蒙特塞拉特重要喷发的数据。学生将为项目的各个阶段做出贡献，包括地质研究，模型开发和软件开发。经过适当的测试后，我们计划通过开放代码和向火山学界提供PC集群实施方面的援助，使该项目的结果广为人知。***

0130602ConnorThis grant, supported through funds from the NSF/Information Technology Research - Small Grants Program and the EAR/Instrumentation and Facilities Program, will enable the development of a first-generation data and model assimilation system for volcanic hazard assessment. Essentially, this system will use Bayesian forecasting techniques to construct hazard estimates that incorporate both prior geologic information and near-real-time data types. The primary goal is to demonstrate, through the application of information technology methodologies, that such disparate geologic data types can be combined smoothly, even during volcanic crises, to yield improved estimates of hazard and risk. The focus will be on hazards associated with the dispersion and accumulation of volcanic tephra (volcanic ash), both because of the importance of this volcanic hazard and our previous experience in forecasting tephra hazards. Models will be used to relate observed tephra-stratigraphies at several volcanoes (Colima, Cerro Negro, Montserrat, Popocateptal) to sets of input parameters, including eruption duration, initial gas content, and meteorological conditions. We plan to explore several techniques (inversion, simplified models, database development) to relate observed patterns of volcano deformation directly to the parameter estimates used in tephra fallout models. The system will be constructed using parallel algorithms to exploit inexpensive and widely available PC clusters. Through the auspices of an ITR grant, we plan to clearly demonstrate the huge advantages realized by, for the first time, systematically linking the geologic record, process models, and near-real time monitoring results. For tephra accumulation hazards specifically, this approach will further lead to a clear understanding of the links between deformation, magma processes, and the fundamental parameters governing tephra dispersion and accumulation. In this sense, the results of the systematic approach advocated here will provide guidance about the volcanological research most likely to results in volcanic hazard reduction. This research will be conducted as a collaborative proposal between the University of Miami, the University of South Florida, and Southwest Research Institute (nonprofit). In addition, international collaboration with the University of Bristol will bring expertise on tephra dispersion modeling and data on the important Montserrat eruptions to the project. Students will contribute to all phases of the project, including geological research, model development, and software development. After appropriate testing, we plan to make the results of this project widely available by open-sourcing the codes and providing assistance in implementation of PC clusters to the volcanological community. ***