Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Industrial Policies

这项研究继续了调查者关于劳动力和产业政策的宏观经济影响的工作。先前的研究发展了一个多部门动态一般均衡内部/外部人模型，并使用该模型定量评估了20世纪30年代罗斯福总统的卡特尔和劳动力市场政策对宏观经济的影响。我之前的研究的主要发现是，这些新政政策是大萧条延续到第二次世界大战的关键因素。新的研究在两个重要方面扩大和扩展了这项工作，并通过这样做解决了之前工作中发现的一些关键谜题。首先，它建立了一个带有“持有”的动态一般均衡内部人/外部人模型：工人从资本那里攫取租金的能力。这是对前人工作中从滞留中抽象出来的模型的实质性理论创新。从理论上讲，该模型将早先动态的通用电气内部/外部模型与阻碍摩擦结合在一起，因为工人可以从公司和工人讨价还价之前进行的公司投资中夺取租金。该项目展示了如何描述均衡，以及如何计算均衡，即使考虑到特定行业资本产生的额外复杂性。这一模型对政府政策允许劳动力持有资本的历史事件具有实质性的量化影响。这个模型被用来研究国家劳动关系法案(NLRA)的宏观经济效应，该法案赋予劳工显著的支撑企业的能力。该模型的规范捕获了新政政策的一些关键方面。这个具有滞后性的模型有助于解决我在早期工作中强调的两个关键问题：(1)NLRA通过后经济进一步恶化，以及(2)投资水平极低。搁置模型预测，在采用NLRA后，产出和就业将进一步下降，实际工资将进一步上升，这与数据一致。该模型还预测的投资水平远低于早期模型预测的投资水平，从而使理论与数据更接近。这一发现表明，“抢租”是在新政期间保持低投资的一个关键因素。该提案还概述了这一模式在欧洲的应用。其次，通过研究影响劳动力供应的失业保险政策，拓宽了过去的工作。发展了一个动态一般均衡模型来研究一些历史萧条的宏观经济影响，在这些萧条中，国家采取了非常慷慨的失业救济金制度。这项研究表明，英国的失业保险制度--连同巨大的、针对特定行业的负面冲击--是导致经济萧条的关键因素。这项新的研究开发了一个完全明确的模型，以定量评估二战期间英国和其他历史时期失业救济金对宏观经济的影响。这项研究与现有的分析两次世界大战期间英国经济萧条的大量文献有很大不同。它大量使用了动态一般均衡理论，并不完全专注于用户界面。事实上，这项研究讨论了为什么UI不能成为故事的全部，因为二战后的就业人数比两次世界大战之间的就业人数高得多，尽管福利水平相当。这项研究聚焦于这样一个事实，即英国在第一次世界大战后遭受了巨大的负面部门冲击，但在第二次世界大战之后没有。这项研究建议对两次世界大战之间和二战后的情况进行统一的核算。它开发了一个多部门模型，其中包括就业方面的寻找摩擦，并考虑了与部门转移和失业时期相关的人力资本下降。鉴于英国慷慨的VI制度，这样的模型能够评估巨大的部门冲击对英国两次世界大战期间失业的影响。该模型被用于研究20世纪80年代的欧洲。许多研究人员提出，欧洲在这段时期经历的问题源于慷慨的失业救济金、高度的劳动力讨价还价能力和巨大的行业冲击。最后，该项目建立了一个关于两次世界大战期间经济的综合跨国数据库，以帮助促进对两次世界大战期间的更多研究。这将是这一时期唯一完整记录的、可供下载的数据库。

This research continues work by the investigator on the macroeconomic effects of labor and industrial policies. The prior research developed a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium insider/outsider model and used that model to quantitatively evaluate the macroeconomic impact of President Roosevelt's cartelization and labor market policies in the 1930s. The main finding of my previous research is that these New Deal policies were a key factor in the continuation of the Great Depression until World War II. The new research broadens and extends this work in two significant ways and so in doing resolves some key puzzles identified in the previous work. First, it develops a dynamic general equilibrium insider/outsider model with "hold-up": the ability of workers to grab rents from capital. This is a substantial theoretical innovation over the model in the previous work, which abstracted from hold-up. Theoretically, the model merges the earlier dynamic GE insider/outsider model with a hold-up friction in that workers can grab rents from firm investments made prior to the time that firms and workers bargain. The project shows how the equilibrium can be characterized and how it can be computed even with the additional complexity arising from industry-specific capital. This model has substantive quantitative implications for historical episodes in which government policies permitted labor to hold up capital. This model is used to study the macroeconomic effects of the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), which gave labor a significant ability to hold up firms. The specification of the model captures some key aspects of New Deal policies. The model with hold-up helps resolve two key puzzles highlighted in my earlier work: (1) the further deterioration of the economy after the NLRA was passed, and (2) the extraordinary low level of investment. The hold-up model predicts a further drop in output and employment and a further increase in the real wage after the NLRA was adopted, which is consistent with the data. The model also predicts a much lower level of investment than predicted by the earlier model without hold-up, and thus brings the theory closer in line with data. This finding suggests that "rent-grabbing" was a key factor that kept investment low during the New Deal. The proposal also outlines the application of this model to Europe. Second, past work is broadened by studying unemployment insurance policies that affect labor supply. A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed to study the macroeconomic implications of some historical depressions in which countries have adopted very generous unemployment benefits systems. This work indicated that Britain's unemployment insurance system -in conjunction with large, negative sector-specific shocks - was a key contributing factor to the depression. The new research develops a fully articulated model to quantitatively evaluate the macroeconomic impact of unemployment benefits during interwar Britain and during other historical episodes. This research differs considerably from the large existing literature that has analyzed the interwar British depression. It makes considerable use of dynamic general equilibrium theory, and it does not exclusively focus on UI. In fact, the research discusses how UI cannot be the whole story, because post-World War II employment was considerably higher than interwar employment, despite comparable levels of benefits. By focusing on the fact that Britain suffered large, negative sectoral shocks after World War I, but not after World War II, the research suggests a unified accounting of interwar and post-World War II. It develops a multi-sector model that includes a search friction on employment and takes into account the drop in human capital associated with sectoral shifts and spells of unemployment. Such a model is capable of assessing the impact of the large sectoral shocks on Britain's interwar unemployment given its generous VI system. The model is used to study Europe in 1980s. A number of researchers have suggested that the problems Europe experienced during this period arose from a combination of generous unemployment benefits, high degrees of labor bargaining power and large sectoral shocks. Finally, the project constructs a comprehensive cross-country database on interwar economies to help foster additional research on the interwar period. This will be the only fully documented, downloadable database on this period available.