Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Industrial Policies

本研究延续了劳动力和产业政策的宏观经济影响研究者的工作。先前的研究开发了一个多部门动态一般均衡内部人/外部人模型，并使用该模型来定量评估罗斯福总统的卡特尔化和劳动力市场政策在20世纪30年代的宏观经济影响。我以前的研究的主要发现是，这些新政政策是大萧条持续到第二次世界大战的关键因素。 新的研究以两种重要的方式拓宽和扩展了这项工作，从而解决了以前工作中确定的一些关键难题。首先，它建立了一个动态一般均衡的内部人/外部人模型，其中包含“套牢”：工人从资本中攫取租金的能力。这是对前人从滞留中抽象出来的模型的一个重大理论创新。从理论上讲，该模型将早期的动态通用电气内部人/外部人模型与拖延摩擦相结合，因为工人可以从公司和工人讨价还价之前的公司投资中获得租金。该项目展示了如何均衡可以被描述，以及如何计算，即使是在特定行业资本带来额外复杂性的情况下。这一模型对政府政策允许劳动力持有资本的历史事件具有实质性的定量影响。 这个模型被用来研究《国家劳动关系法》（NLRA）的宏观经济效应，该法案赋予了劳动者支撑企业的重要能力。该模型的规格说明抓住了新政政策的一些关键方面。 这个包含滞留的模型有助于解决我在早期研究中强调的两个关键问题：（1）《国家劳资关系法》通过后经济的进一步恶化，（2）投资水平异常低。滞留模型预测，在NLRA被采用后，产出和就业将进一步下降，真实的工资将进一步上升，这与数据一致。该模型还预测的投资水平远低于没有停滞的早期模型的预测，从而使理论更接近数据。这一发现表明，“抢租”是新政期间保持低投资的一个关键因素。该提案还概述了这一模式在欧洲的应用。第二，通过研究影响劳动力供给的失业保险政策，扩大了以往的工作。 一个动态的一般均衡模型被开发来研究一些历史萧条中的国家采取了非常慷慨的失业救济制度的宏观经济影响。 这项研究表明，英国的失业保险制度--加上大规模的、负面的部门冲击--是导致萧条的一个关键因素。 这项新的研究开发了一个完全清晰的模型，以定量评估英国两次世界大战期间和其他历史事件期间失业救济金的宏观经济影响。这项研究与分析两次世界大战之间英国抑郁症的大量现有文献有很大不同。它大量使用了动态一般均衡理论，而且它并不只关注UI。事实上，这项研究讨论了UI如何不能是整个故事，因为第二次世界大战后的就业率大大高于两次世界大战之间的就业率，尽管福利水平相当。通过关注英国在第一次世界大战后而不是在第二次世界大战后遭受了巨大的负面部门冲击这一事实，这项研究表明了对两次世界大战之间和第二次世界大战后的统一核算。 它开发了一个多部门模型，其中包括对就业的搜索摩擦，并考虑到与部门转移和失业有关的人力资本下降。这样一个模型是能够评估的影响，大部门的冲击，英国的两次世界大战之间的失业率鉴于其慷慨的VI系统。 该模型用于研究20世纪80年代的欧洲。许多研究人员认为，欧洲在这一时期经历的问题是慷慨的失业救济金、高度的劳动力议价能力和大的部门冲击的综合结果。最后，该项目建立了一个关于两次世界大战之间经济的综合性跨国数据库，以帮助促进对两次世界大战之间时期的更多研究。这将是关于这一时期的唯一完整记录和可下载的数据库。

This research continues work by the investigator on the macroeconomic effects of labor and industrial policies. The prior research developed a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium insider/outsider model and used that model to quantitatively evaluate the macroeconomic impact of President Roosevelt's cartelization and labor market policies in the 1930s. The main finding of my previous research is that these New Deal policies were a key factor in the continuation of the Great Depression until World War II. The new research broadens and extends this work in two significant ways and so in doing resolves some key puzzles identified in the previous work. First, it develops a dynamic general equilibrium insider/outsider model with "hold-up": the ability of workers to grab rents from capital. This is a substantial theoretical innovation over the model in the previous work, which abstracted from hold-up. Theoretically, the model merges the earlier dynamic GE insider/outsider model with a hold-up friction in that workers can grab rents from firm investments made prior to the time that firms and workers bargain. The project shows how the equilibrium can be characterized and how it can be computed even with the additional complexity arising from industry-specific capital. This model has substantive quantitative implications for historical episodes in which government policies permitted labor to hold up capital. This model is used to study the macroeconomic effects of the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), which gave labor a significant ability to hold up firms. The specification of the model captures some key aspects of New Deal policies. The model with hold-up helps resolve two key puzzles highlighted in my earlier work: (1) the further deterioration of the economy after the NLRA was passed, and (2) the extraordinary low level of investment. The hold-up model predicts a further drop in output and employment and a further increase in the real wage after the NLRA was adopted, which is consistent with the data. The model also predicts a much lower level of investment than predicted by the earlier model without hold-up, and thus brings the theory closer in line with data. This finding suggests that "rent-grabbing" was a key factor that kept investment low during the New Deal. The proposal also outlines the application of this model to Europe. Second, past work is broadened by studying unemployment insurance policies that affect labor supply. A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed to study the macroeconomic implications of some historical depressions in which countries have adopted very generous unemployment benefits systems. This work indicated that Britain's unemployment insurance system -in conjunction with large, negative sector-specific shocks - was a key contributing factor to the depression. The new research develops a fully articulated model to quantitatively evaluate the macroeconomic impact of unemployment benefits during interwar Britain and during other historical episodes. This research differs considerably from the large existing literature that has analyzed the interwar British depression. It makes considerable use of dynamic general equilibrium theory, and it does not exclusively focus on UI. In fact, the research discusses how UI cannot be the whole story, because post-World War II employment was considerably higher than interwar employment, despite comparable levels of benefits. By focusing on the fact that Britain suffered large, negative sectoral shocks after World War I, but not after World War II, the research suggests a unified accounting of interwar and post-World War II. It develops a multi-sector model that includes a search friction on employment and takes into account the drop in human capital associated with sectoral shifts and spells of unemployment. Such a model is capable of assessing the impact of the large sectoral shocks on Britain's interwar unemployment given its generous VI system. The model is used to study Europe in 1980s. A number of researchers have suggested that the problems Europe experienced during this period arose from a combination of generous unemployment benefits, high degrees of labor bargaining power and large sectoral shocks. Finally, the project constructs a comprehensive cross-country database on interwar economies to help foster additional research on the interwar period. This will be the only fully documented, downloadable database on this period available.