Space Weather: Short-term Prediction of Solar Flares and Geoeffectiveness of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections

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Quantitative parameters for short-term (24-48 hours) forecasts of solar activity will be computed from high-resolution vector magnetographs obtained at the Big Bear and Huairou solar observatories. These parameters include the power-law index b of the longitudinal magnetic field structure functions (i.e., two-point correlation functions), and the cancellation exponent k of the electric-current helicity. Data from a four-station global Ha network will be used to identify solar flares for comparison analyses with changes in active region magnetic fields. Extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetic fields will permit inferences of the field orientation in active region filaments, which in turn may be used to forecast filament eruptions and their geoeffectiveness.