Space Weather: Short-term Prediction of Solar Flares and Geoeffectiveness of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections

短期(24-48小时)太阳活动预报的定量参数将根据大熊和怀柔太阳天文台获得的高分辨率矢量磁图计算出来。这些参数包括纵向磁场结构函数(即两点关联函数)的幂指数b和电流螺旋度的抵消指数k。来自四个站点的全球Ha网络的数据将用于识别太阳耀斑，以便与活动区磁场的变化进行比较分析。对观测到的光球磁场的外推将允许推断活动区域灯丝的磁场方向，这反过来又可以用来预测灯丝喷发及其地质有效性。

Quantitative parameters for short-term (24-48 hours) forecasts of solar activity will be computed from high-resolution vector magnetographs obtained at the Big Bear and Huairou solar observatories. These parameters include the power-law index b of the longitudinal magnetic field structure functions (i.e., two-point correlation functions), and the cancellation exponent k of the electric-current helicity. Data from a four-station global Ha network will be used to identify solar flares for comparison analyses with changes in active region magnetic fields. Extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetic fields will permit inferences of the field orientation in active region filaments, which in turn may be used to forecast filament eruptions and their geoeffectiveness.