PECASE: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgment and Choice

提案题目：PECASE：情绪对判断和选择的特定影响模型机构：卡内基梅隆大学曾经是一个完全的认知企业，对判断和决策的研究越来越多地关注情绪的强大影响。最近的研究表明，即使是偶然的情绪——通常与手头的判断/决定无关的情绪——也会对判断和选择产生重大影响。这一传统的大多数研究都是基于价值的方法，对比积极情绪和消极情绪对判断和选择的影响。但越来越多的证据表明，相同效价的特定情绪可以引发相反的感知和判断。例如，在9-11恐怖袭击之后，在一项全国性的实地实验中，在美国公民的风险估计和政策偏好方面，实验引起的恐惧与愤怒产生了相反的效果（Lerner, Gonzalez, Small, & Fischhoff, in press）。从理论的角度来看，这些发现表明，除效价外，情绪维度也是决策模型中重要的组成部分。从应用的角度来看，他们展示了如何以及为什么受到愤怒刺激的公民会支持与受到恐惧刺激的公民截然不同的政策。本研究的目的是发展和测试一个简洁但强大的理论，全面预测特定情绪和判断/选择结果之间的关系。本研究将扩展Lerner和Keltner（2000; 2001）的评价倾向框架（ATF）。ATF预测，每种情绪都会激活一种内隐的认知倾向——一种“评估倾向”——根据触发这种情绪的中心评估维度来评估未来事件。这样的评价，虽然是为了帮助个人对引起这种情绪的事件作出反应而量身定制的，但在引发这种情绪的情况下，这种评价仍然存在，成为解释后续情况的内隐感知透镜。评价倾向方法为发展一系列关于情感、判断和决策的可测试假设提供了一个灵活而具体的框架。本研究将检验关于情绪对三个基本认知过程的影响的假设：概率评估、评价和归因。选择概率评估、估值和归因进行研究是因为它们是日常生活中无数判断和决定的基础。事实上，前两个过程也构成了不确定性下决策的主导理论模型的基础：期望实用新型。在某种程度上，偶然的情绪影响主观效用和/或概率估计，它将对经典决策理论和当代修订产生影响。由于归因在社会认知、心理健康、身体健康和正义的基础理论中起着核心作用，因此偶然情绪对归因过程的影响也将具有多方面的含义。该项目还旨在向更广泛的学生、公众和政策制定者传播有关情绪对判断和决策的影响的知识，以及有关行为决策研究（BDR）这一更大领域的知识。传播BDR的见解尤其重要，因为它对公共政策和私人决策都有明显的实际影响。该领域的知识将通过卡内基梅隆大学（Carnegie Mellon）新的跨学科本科决策科学专业传播给更广泛的受众；通过向政策制定者介绍情况和接受媒体采访；并通过发展可持续的基础设施，与美国国家科学院公众理解办公室合作，传播BDR研究

Proposal Title: PECASE: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences onJudgment and ChoiceInstitution: Carnegie-Mellon UniversityOnce an exclusively cognitive enterprise, research on judgment and decision making increasingly addresses the powerful influence of emotion. Recent research has shown that even incidental emotion - emotion that is normatively unrelated to the judgment/decision at hand - can have a significant impact on judgment and choice. The majority of studies in this tradition have been motivated by a valence-based approach, contrasting the effects of positive versus negative emotions on judgment and choice. But there is growing evidence that specific emotions of the same valence can trigger opposing perceptions and judgments. For example, in the wake of the terrorist attacks of 9-11, experimentally induced fear produced opposite effects from anger on both risk estimates and policy preferences among U.S. citizens in a nationwide field experiment (Lerner, Gonzalez, Small, & Fischhoff, in press). From a theoretical perspective, these findings demonstrate that dimensions of emotions other than valence are also important components to include in decision models. From an applied perspective, they demonstrate how and why citizens primed for anger will endorse rather different policies than will citizens primed for fear.The purpose of the proposed research is to develop and test a parsimonious yet powerful theory that comprehensively predicts relations among specific emotions and judgment/choice outcomes. The proposed research will expand Lerner and Keltner's (2000; 2001) appraisal-tendency framework (ATF). The ATF predicts that each emotion activates an implicit cognitive predisposition - an "appraisal tendency" - to appraise future events in line with the central appraisal dimensions that triggered the emotion. Such appraisals, although tailored to help the individual respond to the event that evoked the emotion, persist beyond the eliciting situation - becoming an implicit perceptual lens for interpreting subsequent situations. The appraisal-tendency approach provides a flexible yet specific framework for developing a host of testable hypotheses concerning emotion, judgment, and decision making. The proposed research will test hypotheses concerning the effects of emotion on three fundamental cognitive processes: probability assessment, valuation, and attribution. Probability assessment, valuation, and attribution are chosen for study because they underlie countless judgments and decisions in daily life. Indeed, the first two processes also form the basis for the dominant theoretical model for decision making under uncertainty: the expected utility model. To the extent that incidental emotion influences subjective utility and/or probability estimates, it will have implications for classical decision theories and contemporary revisions. To the extent that incidental emotion influences attribution processes, it, too, will have manifold implications because attribution plays a central role in foundational theories of social cognition, mental health, physical health, and justice. The project also aims to disseminate knowledge about the effect of emotion on judgment and decision making, and about the larger field of behavioral decision research (BDR), to broader audiences of students, the public, and policymakers. Dissemination of the insights of BDR is especially important because it has clear practical implications for both public policy and private decisions. Knowledge of the field will be circulated to wider audiences through a new, interdisciplinary undergraduate major in Decision Science at Carnegie Mellon; through briefings for policymakers and interviews with the press; and through the development of a sustainable infrastructure for disseminating BDR research in concert with the National Academy of Science's Office for the Public Understand