PECASE: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgment and Choice

提案标题：PECASE：对判断和选择的特定影响的模型：麦基-梅隆大学曾经是一个专门的认知企业，对判断和决策的研究越来越多地涉及情感的强大影响。最近的研究表明，即使是偶然的情绪--与手头的判断/决定无关的情绪--也会对判断和选择产生重大影响。这一传统中的大多数研究都是基于效价的方法，对比了积极情绪和消极情绪对判断和选择的影响。但越来越多的证据表明，相同效价的特定情绪可以引发相反的感知和判断。例如，在9-11恐怖袭击之后，在一项全国性的实地实验中，实验诱导的恐惧对美国公民的风险估计和政策偏好产生了与愤怒相反的影响（Lerner，Gonzalez，Small，Fischhoff，出版中）。从理论的角度来看，这些研究结果表明，其他维度的情绪效价也是重要的组成部分，包括在决策模型。从应用的角度来看，他们展示了如何以及为什么公民准备愤怒会赞同不同的政策，而不是公民准备为fear.The拟议的研究的目的是开发和测试一个简约而强大的理论，全面预测特定的情绪和判断/选择结果之间的关系。本研究将扩展Lerner和Keltner（2000; 2001）的评价趋势框架（ATF）。ATF预测，每一种情绪都会激活一种内隐的认知倾向--一种“评价倾向”--根据触发这种情绪的中心评价维度来评价未来的事件。这种评价虽然是为了帮助个体对引发情绪的事件做出反应而量身定做的，但却在引发情绪的情境之外持续存在--成为解释后续情境的一个隐含的知觉透镜。评价倾向方法提供了一个灵活而具体的框架，用于发展一系列关于情绪、判断和决策的可检验假设。这项研究将检验关于情绪对三个基本认知过程的影响的假设：概率评估、评价和归因。选择概率评估、估值和归因进行研究，是因为它们是日常生活中无数判断和决策的基础。事实上，前两个过程也构成了不确定性下决策的主要理论模型的基础：预期效用模型。在一定程度上，附带情绪影响主观效用和/或概率估计，它将对经典决策理论和当代修订的影响。在一定程度上，附带情绪影响归因过程，它也将有多方面的影响，因为归因在社会认知、心理健康、身体健康和正义的基础理论中起着核心作用。该项目还旨在向更广泛的学生、公众和政策制定者传播有关情绪对判断和决策的影响以及行为决策研究（BDR）更大领域的知识。传播《巴西发展报告》的见解尤为重要，因为它对公共政策和私人决策都有明确的实际影响。该领域的知识将通过以下方式传播给更广泛的受众：在卡内基梅隆大学开设一个新的、跨学科的决策科学本科专业;为决策者举办简报会和接受媒体采访;以及与国家科学院公众理解办公室合作，开发一个可持续的基础设施，传播巴西减灾研究成果

Proposal Title: PECASE: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences onJudgment and ChoiceInstitution: Carnegie-Mellon UniversityOnce an exclusively cognitive enterprise, research on judgment and decision making increasingly addresses the powerful influence of emotion. Recent research has shown that even incidental emotion - emotion that is normatively unrelated to the judgment/decision at hand - can have a significant impact on judgment and choice. The majority of studies in this tradition have been motivated by a valence-based approach, contrasting the effects of positive versus negative emotions on judgment and choice. But there is growing evidence that specific emotions of the same valence can trigger opposing perceptions and judgments. For example, in the wake of the terrorist attacks of 9-11, experimentally induced fear produced opposite effects from anger on both risk estimates and policy preferences among U.S. citizens in a nationwide field experiment (Lerner, Gonzalez, Small, & Fischhoff, in press). From a theoretical perspective, these findings demonstrate that dimensions of emotions other than valence are also important components to include in decision models. From an applied perspective, they demonstrate how and why citizens primed for anger will endorse rather different policies than will citizens primed for fear.The purpose of the proposed research is to develop and test a parsimonious yet powerful theory that comprehensively predicts relations among specific emotions and judgment/choice outcomes. The proposed research will expand Lerner and Keltner's (2000; 2001) appraisal-tendency framework (ATF). The ATF predicts that each emotion activates an implicit cognitive predisposition - an "appraisal tendency" - to appraise future events in line with the central appraisal dimensions that triggered the emotion. Such appraisals, although tailored to help the individual respond to the event that evoked the emotion, persist beyond the eliciting situation - becoming an implicit perceptual lens for interpreting subsequent situations. The appraisal-tendency approach provides a flexible yet specific framework for developing a host of testable hypotheses concerning emotion, judgment, and decision making. The proposed research will test hypotheses concerning the effects of emotion on three fundamental cognitive processes: probability assessment, valuation, and attribution. Probability assessment, valuation, and attribution are chosen for study because they underlie countless judgments and decisions in daily life. Indeed, the first two processes also form the basis for the dominant theoretical model for decision making under uncertainty: the expected utility model. To the extent that incidental emotion influences subjective utility and/or probability estimates, it will have implications for classical decision theories and contemporary revisions. To the extent that incidental emotion influences attribution processes, it, too, will have manifold implications because attribution plays a central role in foundational theories of social cognition, mental health, physical health, and justice. The project also aims to disseminate knowledge about the effect of emotion on judgment and decision making, and about the larger field of behavioral decision research (BDR), to broader audiences of students, the public, and policymakers. Dissemination of the insights of BDR is especially important because it has clear practical implications for both public policy and private decisions. Knowledge of the field will be circulated to wider audiences through a new, interdisciplinary undergraduate major in Decision Science at Carnegie Mellon; through briefings for policymakers and interviews with the press; and through the development of a sustainable infrastructure for disseminating BDR research in concert with the National Academy of Science's Office for the Public Understand