Input-Output Risk Model of Critical Infrastructure Systems

关键基础设施系统的投入产出风险模型

• 批准号: 0301553
• 负责人: Yacov Haimes
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Virginia Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-05-01 至 2007-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0301553&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Input; Output; Risk; Model; Critical

Abstract - Toward Improved Understanding of Warnings for Short-Fuse Weather EventsThe meteorological and hydrological sciences have shown dramatic improvements in offering increased lead-times, better long-term models and integrated real-time monitoring for short fuse weather events. At the same time the social science research necessary to translate the new knowledge into improved responses to short-fuse weather events is missing.This project challenges the current state of public perceptions of warnings for flash floods and tornadoes. A team of geographers and psychologists will work closely with forecasters and emergency managers in the two case study cities of Austin, TX and Denver, CO: cities with high growth rates, great diversity, and significant disaster potential. We have five objectives: 1) to develop an enhanced understanding of warnings by studying public and private sources of warning information; 2) to see how changing demography of the US influences public responses to warnings; 3) to evaluate the use and potential of new technologies for warning perceptions and responses; 4) to assess the construct of "false alarms" for short-fuse weather events; and, 5) to evaluate the applicability of social cognitive theory as a framework to understand the differences between how people respond to warnings. Results from this research will have broad implications for future warning procedures providing new directions for local and state emergency managers and for the federal agencies involved in warnings including the National Weather Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, FEMA, and the US Army Corps of Engineers.

摘要-为了更好地理解短引信天气事件的警告，气象和水文科学在提供更长的提前期、更好的长期模式和对短引信天气事件的综合实时监测方面取得了显著的进步。与此同时，将新知识转化为对短时天气事件的更好反应所需的社会科学研究也缺乏。该项目挑战了公众对山洪暴发和龙卷风警报的现状。一个由地理学家和心理学家组成的团队将与德克萨斯州奥斯汀和科罗拉多州丹佛市这两个案例研究城市的预报员和应急经理密切合作，这两个城市都是高增长率、多样性和重大灾难潜力的城市。我们有五个目标：1)通过研究公共和私人的警报信息来源，加深对警报的理解；2)了解美国人口结构的变化如何影响公众对警报的反应；3)评估新技术在警报感知和反应方面的使用和潜力；4)评估对短时天气事件的“虚假警报”的构建；以及5)评估社会认知理论的适用性，以此作为理解人们对警报的反应方式差异的框架。这项研究的结果将对未来的预警程序产生广泛的影响，为地方和州应急管理人员以及参与预警的联邦机构，包括国家气象局、垦荒局、联邦应急管理局和美国陆军工程兵团提供新的方向。