Input-Output Risk Model of Critical Infrastructure Systems

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Abstract - Toward Improved Understanding of Warnings for Short-Fuse Weather EventsThe meteorological and hydrological sciences have shown dramatic improvements in offering increased lead-times, better long-term models and integrated real-time monitoring for short fuse weather events. At the same time the social science research necessary to translate the new knowledge into improved responses to short-fuse weather events is missing.This project challenges the current state of public perceptions of warnings for flash floods and tornadoes. A team of geographers and psychologists will work closely with forecasters and emergency managers in the two case study cities of Austin, TX and Denver, CO: cities with high growth rates, great diversity, and significant disaster potential. We have five objectives: 1) to develop an enhanced understanding of warnings by studying public and private sources of warning information; 2) to see how changing demography of the US influences public responses to warnings; 3) to evaluate the use and potential of new technologies for warning perceptions and responses; 4) to assess the construct of "false alarms" for short-fuse weather events; and, 5) to evaluate the applicability of social cognitive theory as a framework to understand the differences between how people respond to warnings. Results from this research will have broad implications for future warning procedures providing new directions for local and state emergency managers and for the federal agencies involved in warnings including the National Weather Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, FEMA, and the US Army Corps of Engineers.