Adaptive Systems-Based Prioritization of Bridge Infrastructure Maintenance: Integrated Modeling of Technical, Socio-Economic, and Normative Dimensions

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The research objective of this project is to develop a methodology for integrating multiple models and databases with which to understand decisions of large-scale physical infrastructure systems, and to propose frameworks for decisions that would improve system-wide maintenance allocations. The engine for such methodology is termed Phantom System Models (PSM)--a real and virtual modeling laboratory, comprising an array of models that will enhance modeling and understanding of the emergent multiscale bridge systems. The research initiatives are focused on an over-arching case study of the Hampton Road Planning District in the Southeast of Virginia, a regional emergent system with 522 bridge assets. Three major perspectives of models and corresponding data needs are addressed: Technical Bridge-System Engineering, wherein currently available engineering-based assessment models are enhanced with systems-driven probabilistic and extreme event analyses; Socio-economic Analysis, which develops models to estimate cascading impacts of bridge maintenance decisions and potential failures through econometric and agent-based models; and Normative Dimension Analysis, which seeks to expand policy analysis through an understanding of the embedded technical, programmatic, and socioeconomic dimensions associated with the bridge system as well as the competing risks, costs, and benefits among all of the system's stakeholders. This effort results in a framework for exploring factors that have significantly influenced prioritization decisions in the past and the development of new prioritization methods for maintenance allocation stemming from the integration of current engineering-based practices with the above contributions in new data analysis and modeling approaches.Decisions involving large-scale physical infrastructure systems are complex and are influenced by a myriad of technical, socio-economic, and normative dimensions. The broader impact of the proposed research will be in understanding decisions that have been made and making science-based recommendations to support the formulation of bridge maintenance and maintainability policies at the local, state, and federal levels. A symposium will be organized to disseminate new knowledge and lessons learned with practicing engineers and policymakers from academic institutions, government agencies, and the private sector. This research will engage students (especially under-represented students) at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Students pursuing graduate degrees will be involved in the development of the theoretical and methodological aspects of this integrative and multi-disciplined systems project. It is expected that this work will improve our understanding of how decisions are made regarding large-scale physical infrastructure systems and provide a clear targeted improvement path for adopting decision processes for better maintenance of our interconnected regional bridge systems.