Adaptive Systems-Based Prioritization of Bridge Infrastructure Maintenance: Integrated Modeling of Technical, Socio-Economic, and Normative Dimensions

基于自适应系统的桥梁基础设施维护优先级：技术、社会经济和规范维度的集成建模

• 批准号: 0928550
• 负责人: Yacov Haimes
• 金额: $ 55.3万
• 依托单位: University of Virginia Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0928550&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Adaptive; Systems; Based; Prioritization; Bridge

The research objective of this project is to develop a methodology for integrating multiple models and databases with which to understand decisions of large-scale physical infrastructure systems, and to propose frameworks for decisions that would improve system-wide maintenance allocations. The engine for such methodology is termed Phantom System Models (PSM)--a real and virtual modeling laboratory, comprising an array of models that will enhance modeling and understanding of the emergent multiscale bridge systems. The research initiatives are focused on an over-arching case study of the Hampton Road Planning District in the Southeast of Virginia, a regional emergent system with 522 bridge assets. Three major perspectives of models and corresponding data needs are addressed: Technical Bridge-System Engineering, wherein currently available engineering-based assessment models are enhanced with systems-driven probabilistic and extreme event analyses; Socio-economic Analysis, which develops models to estimate cascading impacts of bridge maintenance decisions and potential failures through econometric and agent-based models; and Normative Dimension Analysis, which seeks to expand policy analysis through an understanding of the embedded technical, programmatic, and socioeconomic dimensions associated with the bridge system as well as the competing risks, costs, and benefits among all of the system's stakeholders. This effort results in a framework for exploring factors that have significantly influenced prioritization decisions in the past and the development of new prioritization methods for maintenance allocation stemming from the integration of current engineering-based practices with the above contributions in new data analysis and modeling approaches.Decisions involving large-scale physical infrastructure systems are complex and are influenced by a myriad of technical, socio-economic, and normative dimensions. The broader impact of the proposed research will be in understanding decisions that have been made and making science-based recommendations to support the formulation of bridge maintenance and maintainability policies at the local, state, and federal levels. A symposium will be organized to disseminate new knowledge and lessons learned with practicing engineers and policymakers from academic institutions, government agencies, and the private sector. This research will engage students (especially under-represented students) at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Students pursuing graduate degrees will be involved in the development of the theoretical and methodological aspects of this integrative and multi-disciplined systems project. It is expected that this work will improve our understanding of how decisions are made regarding large-scale physical infrastructure systems and provide a clear targeted improvement path for adopting decision processes for better maintenance of our interconnected regional bridge systems.

该项目的研究目标是制定一种方法，将多种模型和数据库结合起来，以便了解大规模有形基础设施系统的决定，并提出决策框架，改善全系统的维修拨款。这种方法的引擎被称为幻影系统模型（PSM）-一个真实的和虚拟的建模实验室，包括一系列的模型，将加强建模和理解的新兴多尺度桥梁系统。研究计划的重点是在弗吉尼亚州东南部的汉普顿道路规划区，一个区域性的紧急系统，522桥梁资产的过度膨胀的案例研究。模型和相应的数据需求的三个主要方面进行了讨论：技术桥梁系统工程，其中目前可用的基于工程的评估模型与系统驱动的概率和极端事件分析增强;社会经济分析，开发模型，以估计级联影响的桥梁维修决策和潜在的故障，通过计量经济学和代理人为基础的模型;规范性维度分析，旨在通过理解与桥梁系统相关的嵌入式技术，计划和社会经济维度以及系统所有利益相关者之间的竞争风险，成本和收益来扩展政策分析。这一努力的结果是一个框架，用于探索过去对优先级决策有重大影响的因素，并开发新的优先级方法，用于维护分配，该方法源于将当前基于工程的实践与新数据分析和建模方法中的上述贡献相结合。涉及大型物理基础设施系统的决策是复杂的，受到无数技术，社会经济和规范层面。拟议研究的更广泛的影响将是理解已经做出的决定，并提出基于科学的建议，以支持在地方、州和联邦各级制定桥梁维护和可维护性政策。将组织一次研讨会，与来自学术机构、政府机构和私营部门的执业工程师和决策者一起传播新知识和经验教训。这项研究将吸引本科和研究生层次的学生（特别是代表性不足的学生）。攻读研究生学位的学生将参与这个综合性和多学科系统项目的理论和方法方面的发展。预计这项工作将提高我们对大型物理基础设施系统决策方式的理解，并为采用决策流程提供明确的目标改进路径，以更好地维护我们相互连接的区域桥梁系统。