Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Resources IX

Haimes 0091627关于基于风险的决策的第九届工程基金会会议代表了该领域的自然发展，以及水资源风险评估和管理以及自然和人为灾害的理论，方法和应用的高潮。 最引人注目的观察是，1980年9月在加州阿西洛马举行的第一次会议提出的反对意见和目标，以及1980年会议记录序言中提出的问题，在今天和当时一样相关和及时，我们过去的会议继续加强苏格拉底文化，这种文化在过去15年的会议中不断发展。 虽然有些文件涉及以前提出的专题，但讨论的实质性内容更丰富、更深入。 方法与理论的关系更加密切，与此同时，方法的应用与新出现的自然和人为灾害的相关性变得更强，更有说服力。 数据、模型和预测中的不确定性及其对风险分析的影响等主题在某种意义上有其永恒的生命力; 1997年10月12-17日在加州的圣巴巴拉举行的第八届（最后一届）基于风险的决策工程基金会会议，扩大了关于政策问题的技术讨论，以及最近的立法倡议对风险评估的影响。 这次会议试图解决新兴趋势和思想之间的联系，如我们的环境管理，物质基础设施，应对可能的气候变化，希望在更广泛的意义上接受可持续发展的概念，以及通信机会的爆炸及其对知情决策的影响。

Haimes0091627The proposed ninth Engineering Foundation Conference on risk-based decision-making represents the natural growth of the field and the culmination of the theory, methodology, and applications in risk assessment and management of water resources and natural and man-made hazards. The most striking observations is that the objection and goals set forth for the first conference in September 1980 in Asilomar, California, and the issues raised in the preface of the 1980 proceedings are as relevant and as timely today as they were then.Our past conferences continued to reinforce the Socratic culture that has evolved over the last decade-and-a-half in these meetings. Although some of the papers covered topics presented previously, the discussions were more substantive and in greater depth. Methodologies were more closely related to theory, and at the same time the relevance of their applications to emerging natural and man-made hazards became stronger and more convincing. Such topics as uncertainties in data, models, and forecasts and their influence oin risk analysis have, in some sense, an eternal life of their own; yet, the level of discussion epitomized the growth and maturity in the field.The eighth (last) Engineering Foundation Conference on Risk-Based Decision-Making, held October 12-17, 1997 in Santa Barbara, California, augmented the technical discussion with policy issues and the implications of recent legislation initiatives in risk assessment. This conference attempted to address the connectedness among emerging trends and ideas as the management of our environment, physical infrastructure, response to possible climate change, the desire to embrace the concept of sustainable development in its broader sense, and the explosion of communications opportunities and their impact on informed decision making.