Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Resources IX

即将召开的第九届基于风险决策的工程基金会会议代表了该领域的自然发展，也是水资源和自然、人为灾害风险评估与管理的理论、方法和应用的高潮。最引人注目的观察是，1980年9月在加利福尼亚州阿西洛马举行的第一次会议提出的反对意见和目标，以及1980年会议纪要序言中提出的问题，在今天和当时一样具有相关性和及时性。我们过去的会议继续强化了在过去15年的会议中形成的苏格拉底文化。虽然有些文件涉及以前提出的题目，但讨论更有实质性和更深入。方法与理论的关系更加密切，同时，它们的应用与新出现的自然和人为危害的相关性变得更强，更有说服力。从某种意义上说，数据、模型和预测中的不确定性及其对风险分析的影响等主题具有自己的永恒生命；然而，讨论的水平体现了该领域的成长和成熟。第八届（最后一届）基于风险的决策工程基金会会议于1997年10月12日至17日在加利福尼亚州的圣巴巴拉举行，会议扩大了对政策问题和风险评估中最近立法倡议的影响的技术讨论。本次会议试图探讨新兴趋势和理念之间的联系，如环境管理、物质基础设施、应对可能发生的气候变化、接受更广泛意义上的可持续发展概念的愿望，以及通信机会的爆炸式增长及其对知情决策的影响。

Haimes0091627The proposed ninth Engineering Foundation Conference on risk-based decision-making represents the natural growth of the field and the culmination of the theory, methodology, and applications in risk assessment and management of water resources and natural and man-made hazards. The most striking observations is that the objection and goals set forth for the first conference in September 1980 in Asilomar, California, and the issues raised in the preface of the 1980 proceedings are as relevant and as timely today as they were then.Our past conferences continued to reinforce the Socratic culture that has evolved over the last decade-and-a-half in these meetings. Although some of the papers covered topics presented previously, the discussions were more substantive and in greater depth. Methodologies were more closely related to theory, and at the same time the relevance of their applications to emerging natural and man-made hazards became stronger and more convincing. Such topics as uncertainties in data, models, and forecasts and their influence oin risk analysis have, in some sense, an eternal life of their own; yet, the level of discussion epitomized the growth and maturity in the field.The eighth (last) Engineering Foundation Conference on Risk-Based Decision-Making, held October 12-17, 1997 in Santa Barbara, California, augmented the technical discussion with policy issues and the implications of recent legislation initiatives in risk assessment. This conference attempted to address the connectedness among emerging trends and ideas as the management of our environment, physical infrastructure, response to possible climate change, the desire to embrace the concept of sustainable development in its broader sense, and the explosion of communications opportunities and their impact on informed decision making.