Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Resources IX

Haimes0091627拟议的第九届基于风险的决策工程基金会会议代表着该领域的自然增长，以及水资源和自然和人为灾害的风险评估和管理中的理论、方法和应用的顶峰。最引人注目的是，1980年9月在加利福尼亚州阿西洛马市举行的第一次会议提出的反对意见和目标，以及1980年会议序文中提出的问题，在今天和当时一样具有相关性和及时性。我们过去的会议继续加强在过去15年里在这些会议上发展起来的苏格拉底文化。虽然有些文件涵盖了以前提出的主题，但讨论更为实质性和深入。方法论与理论的联系更加密切，同时，方法论应用于新出现的自然和人为危害的相关性变得更强和更有说服力。数据、模型和预测中的不确定性及其对风险分析的影响等话题，从某种意义上讲，它们本身就是永恒的；然而，讨论的水平是该领域发展和成熟的缩影。第八次(最后)工程基金会基于风险的决策会议于1997年10月12-17日在加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉举行，以政策问题和最近立法倡议在风险评估中的影响为技术讨论增添了内容。本次会议试图讨论环境管理、有形基础设施、应对可能的气候变化、在更广泛意义上接受可持续发展概念的愿望、以及通信机会的爆炸性及其对知情决策的影响等新兴趋势和理念之间的关联性。

Haimes0091627The proposed ninth Engineering Foundation Conference on risk-based decision-making represents the natural growth of the field and the culmination of the theory, methodology, and applications in risk assessment and management of water resources and natural and man-made hazards. The most striking observations is that the objection and goals set forth for the first conference in September 1980 in Asilomar, California, and the issues raised in the preface of the 1980 proceedings are as relevant and as timely today as they were then.Our past conferences continued to reinforce the Socratic culture that has evolved over the last decade-and-a-half in these meetings. Although some of the papers covered topics presented previously, the discussions were more substantive and in greater depth. Methodologies were more closely related to theory, and at the same time the relevance of their applications to emerging natural and man-made hazards became stronger and more convincing. Such topics as uncertainties in data, models, and forecasts and their influence oin risk analysis have, in some sense, an eternal life of their own; yet, the level of discussion epitomized the growth and maturity in the field.The eighth (last) Engineering Foundation Conference on Risk-Based Decision-Making, held October 12-17, 1997 in Santa Barbara, California, augmented the technical discussion with policy issues and the implications of recent legislation initiatives in risk assessment. This conference attempted to address the connectedness among emerging trends and ideas as the management of our environment, physical infrastructure, response to possible climate change, the desire to embrace the concept of sustainable development in its broader sense, and the explosion of communications opportunities and their impact on informed decision making.