Unifying Models of Gene Flow at Multiple Scales in a Well-Studied Vertebrate

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This project will produce (1) a high-resolution portrait of genetic population structure for a federally Threatened bird, the Florida Scrub Jay and (2) detailed models of how genetic material moves within and among populations via dispersal by individual jays. Two independent genetic marker systems (microsatellites and single-nucleotide polymorphisms) will be used to measure genetic similarities and differences among populations, using blood samples drawn from 3,000 individual birds across Florida and analyzed in the DNA-sequencing facilities at the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. Statistical models will predict the level of genetic divergence between any two populations based on their current and historic geographic relationships, and a simulation model will predict the genetic fate of a focal population following its isolation from other populations.Rapidly declining throughout its remaining range, the Florida Scrub-Jay is much-loved by the general public and a key "umbrella" species within a dwindling ecosystem. Public agencies, land managers, and conservation organizations are eager for results from this project to help select those "habitat islands" that are critical for continued dispersal and genetic health of the species. The study has unique value for basic research as well, for it will be the first to integrate theoretical models of gene flow, field measurements of dispersal, quantitative estimates of population structure, and a detailed landscape model. Gene flow models will be refined and tested for application to numerous other species, including those much less easily studied.