Precontact Population Decline and Coalescence in the Southern Southwest

在欧洲疾病传入之前的世纪，西南南部的4万人是如何消失的？这个问题困扰了考古学家和广大公众超过世纪。方法和理论的进步以及数据的积累使这成为重新考虑这一问题的适当时机。在美国国家科学基金会的支持下，该项目将在该地区的四个关键研究领域研究这种下降的原因，克里思和空间变化。沙漠考古中心（CDA）的联合社区定居数据库表明，这种人口减少是在公元1300年至1450年期间逐渐发生的。这一结论得到了最近CDA在亚利桑那州东南部的下圣佩德罗山谷的研究的支持，那里的人口下降是一个复杂的过程与长距离迁移和人口聚集。经过几十年的人口逐渐流失，社会群体之间的界限慢慢消失，各群体继续联合起来维持灌溉系统和社交网络。到公元1450年，圣佩德罗山谷被当地和移民群体的后裔组成的残余人口占领。这些人口要么在此后不久就离开了该地区，要么成为“考古学上看不见的人”。“这个模型将在四个额外的研究领域进行评估，这些研究领域突出了西南部的变化：凤凰城盆地、托托盆地、佩里梅萨和萨福德盆地。每个领域都提供了对这些过程的独特视角。一个复杂的问题需要多种分析策略。为了在每个研究区域测试拟议的模型，我们将使用现有的收集和进行有限的表面收集，以：提高考古遗址的时间分辨率，使用修订后的史前晚期陶器测年方案评估每个研究区域的移民发生和规模，通过定居和陶瓷交换模式研究每个研究区域不同社会群体之间的贸易和冲突，通过黑曜石交换模式在GIS中重建环境和农业变量，包括地形，耕地，径流和温度审查现有埋葬人口的骨骼学数据，以获得营养压力，疾病，创伤的证据，这些不同线索的证据将由一个研究小组综合，该研究小组将对世纪以来的地区和与解决我们的中心问题有关的专题经验。此外，学生将在数据收集和分析过程中担任研究助理，并将项目成果广泛传播给专业界和公众。该项目的综合成果将以几种形式提交给专业界，包括独立研究人员会议、在国家会议上的介绍以及在专业期刊上发表文章。该项目的成果将在《西南考古学》（CDA的季刊杂志）和外联讲座中向公众展示，突出保护考古学在图森、凤凰城和南部较小社区的重要性。最后，将向部落政府和美洲原住民群体的文化资源专家进行介绍。史前晚期的遗址特别受到掠夺者和城市发展的威胁，加强保护是该项目的另一个好处。CDA将使用该项目的信息来扩大我们的网站购买和保护地役权保护计划。项目成果将改善两个以考古资源为重点的大型新国家纪念碑的解释和管理政策。最后，这些结果将有利于国家政策制定者扩大亚利桑那州历史保护计划。

How did 40,000 people vanish from the southern Southwest a century before the introduction of European diseases? This question has intrigued and vexed archaeologists and the broader public for more than a century. Advances in method and theory, and data accumulation make this an opportune time to reconsider this question. With National Science Foundation support, this project will examine the causes, tempo, and spatial variability of this decline in four key study areas within the region.The Center for Desert Archaeology's (CDA) Coalescent Communities settlement database indicates that this population reduction occurred gradually during the interval from A.D. 1300 to 1450. This conclusion is supported by recent CDA research in the lower San Pedro valley in southeastern Arizona, where demographic decline was a complex process associated with long distance migration and population aggregation. After decades of gradual population loss, boundaries between social groups slowly dissolved as groups continued to coalesce to maintain irrigation systems and social networks. By A.D. 1450, the San Pedro valley was occupied by a remnant population comprised of descendants of both local and migrant groups. This population either abandoned the region shortly thereafter or became "archaeologically invisible."This model will be evaluated in four additional study areas that highlight the variation in the southern Southwest: the Phoenix Basin, Tonto Basin, Perry Mesa, and Safford Basin. Each area provides a unique perspective on these processes. A complex problem requires multiple analytical strategies. To test the proposed model in each study area we will use existing collections and conduct limited surface collections to: enhance the temporal resolution of archaeological sites using a revised scheme for dating late prehistoric pottery assess the occurrence and scale of migration in each study region examine trade and conflict between different social groups in each study area through settlement and ceramic exchange patterns examine interaction on a larger scale through obsidian exchange patterns reconstruct environmental and agricultural variables in a GIS, including terrain, arable land, streamflow, and temperature review osteological data from existing burial populations for evidence of nutritional stress, disease, trauma, and changes in fertility and mortality ratesThese various threads of evidence will be synthesized by a research team with over a century of combined regional and topical experience relevant to resolution of our central question. In addition, students will further their education as research assistants during the data collection and analysis process.Project results will be broadly disseminated to the professional community and the general public. Synthetic results of this project will be presented to the professional community in several formats, including a conference of independent researchers, presentations at national meetings, and articles in professional journals. The project results will be presented to the general public in an issue of Archaeology Southwest (CDA's quarterly magazine) and outreach lectures, highlighting the importance of preservation archaeology, in Tucson, Phoenix, and smaller communities in southern. Finally, presentations will be made to tribal governments and cultural resource specialists of Native American groups.Sites from the late prehistoric period are particularly threatened by looters and urban development, and enhanced preservation is another benefit of this project. CDA will use information from this project to expand our site purchase and conservation easement preservation program. Project results will improve interpretation and management policy at two large new National Monuments that focus on archaeological resources. Finally, these results will benefit state policymakers by augmenting the Arizona State Historic Preservation Plan.