NSWP: Quantitative Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons

国家空间气象方案的一个主要目标是将科学研究的技术和知识转移到业务预报活动中，并提高目前预报和说明空间环境条件的能力。该项目将改进现有的预测模型，对地球L=3至L=8的电子辐射带进行定量实时预测和说明。本文提出了一个径向扩散模型，并成功地预测了地球同步轨道上的电子增强。然而，目前的模型只有有限的应用，因为该模型只产生在地球同步轨道上的每日平均电子通量。该项目将增强该模式，以便提前48小时对高能电子通量进行高时间分辨率（1小时）预报。它还将提供辐射带电子从L=3到L=8的规格为不同的本地时间。它还将检查加速电子的径向传输的有效性。这项工作将主要由一名研究生在首席研究员的监督下进行。预测和规格结果将在网上公布和存档，供公众访问，网站将具有互动性，使感兴趣的研究人员和工业合作伙伴能够在指定的时间和地点获得结果。

A major objective of National Space Weather Program (NSWP) is to transfer the techniques and knowledge from scientific research to the operational forecasting activities and to improve present capabilities in forecasting and specifying conditions in the space environment. This project will advance current prediction models to make quantitative real-time forecasts and specifications of the Earth's electron radiation belts from L=3 to L=8. A radial diffusion model has been developed and has achieved great success in predicting the electron enhancements at geosynchronous orbit. However, the current model has only limited application because the model only produces daily averaged electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit. This project will enhance the model to make high time resolution (1 hour) forecasts of energetic electron fluxes up to 48 hours in advance. It will also provide specifications of the radiation belt electrons from L=3 to L=8 for different local times. It will also examine the effectiveness of radial transport in accelerating electrons. The work will be mostly carried out by a graduate student under the supervision of the principal investigator. The forecast and specification results will be posted and archived on the web to be accessible to the public and the website will be made interactive to allow interested researchers and industrial partners to acquire the results at specified times and locations.