NSWP: Quantitative Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons

国家空间天气计划（NSWP）的一个主要目标是将科学研究的技术和知识转移到业务预报活动中，提高目前预测和确定空间环境条件的能力。该项目将推进现有的预测模型，对L=3至L=8的地球电子辐射带进行定量实时预测和规范。建立了一种径向扩散模型，在预测地球同步轨道上的电子增强方面取得了很大的成功。然而，目前的模型应用有限，因为该模型只产生地球同步轨道上的每日平均电子通量。该项目将增强模型，使其能够提前48小时进行高时间分辨率（1小时）的高能电子通量预报。它还将提供从L=3到L=8的辐射带电子在不同当地时间的规格。它还将检验加速电子的径向输运的有效性。这项工作将主要由一名研究生在首席研究员的指导下进行。预测和规格结果将在网上公布并存档，供公众查阅。该网站将提供互动服务，让有兴趣的研究人员和工业伙伴可在指定时间和地点获取结果。

A major objective of National Space Weather Program (NSWP) is to transfer the techniques and knowledge from scientific research to the operational forecasting activities and to improve present capabilities in forecasting and specifying conditions in the space environment. This project will advance current prediction models to make quantitative real-time forecasts and specifications of the Earth's electron radiation belts from L=3 to L=8. A radial diffusion model has been developed and has achieved great success in predicting the electron enhancements at geosynchronous orbit. However, the current model has only limited application because the model only produces daily averaged electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit. This project will enhance the model to make high time resolution (1 hour) forecasts of energetic electron fluxes up to 48 hours in advance. It will also provide specifications of the radiation belt electrons from L=3 to L=8 for different local times. It will also examine the effectiveness of radial transport in accelerating electrons. The work will be mostly carried out by a graduate student under the supervision of the principal investigator. The forecast and specification results will be posted and archived on the web to be accessible to the public and the website will be made interactive to allow interested researchers and industrial partners to acquire the results at specified times and locations.