HSD SGER Factors affecting behavioral response to natural warning signs of tsunami: the case study of the December 26, 2004 earthquake.

面临海啸风险的沿海社区往往容易受到两种海啸威胁的影响，它们的预警时间截然不同，与遥远的和当地的来源有关。深海海啸评估和报告(DART)浮标等探测和预警系统探测和报告海啸，但它们对远距离海啸的效用最大，对当地海啸的效用充其量也有限。地面震动和海平面变化等感知事件在历史海啸中起到了有效的警告信号作用，并可能提供当地海啸的第一次也是唯一一次警报(Gonzalez 1999，Dudley 1998，DaRienzo在新闻中)。因此，社区必须了解海啸的自然迹象，并有能力对两种截然不同的预警形式(官方预警和自然预警)作出反应。尽管在巴布亚新几内亚、日本和夏威夷对行为的观察很少说明其复杂性，但没有良好或系统的数据来应对自然警告信号。历史上的海啸表明，自然标志可以作为有效的预警信号，但也表明许多人故意进入海啸危险区域。这个研究小组将从泰国安达曼海岸受影响地区的人们那里收集短暂的社会数据，以了解人类对2004年12月26日事件的行为反应。数据将通过访谈问卷获得，并从类似研究(Gregg等人，2005，Lachman等人，1961)中进行修改，以反映当地文化和语言。这项研究将调查1)人们对海啸的自然警报信号的认识和反应，以及其他人提供的警告或对其他人行动的观察，2)决定受访者选择哪种反应的因素，3)受访者回想起来会影响他们采取不同行动的因素，4)使用Paton(2003)的模型措施在海啸影响前和影响后做好准备。该小组还将收集曾在灾区但后来被遣返的游客的数据。参与研究的人员包括一个由来自泰国、澳大利亚、新西兰和美国的物理学家、心理学家和研究生组成的多学科、多文化的研究团队。这项探索性研究对于帮助沿海社区建立社区韧性至关重要，因为即使是原始数据也可以用来构建所有处于危险中的社区的人类行为模型。这项研究将通过科学出版物和网络广泛传播，并将用于制定有效的外展教育计划，这些计划对于使社区做好准备，以应对远距离和本地海啸警报信息的独特需求至关重要。这项研究得到了人类与社会动力学(HSD)优先领域、国际科学与工程办公室(OISE)和地震工程模拟网络(NEES)计划的共同支持。

Coastal communities at risk from tsunamis are often vulnerable to two tsunami threats with drastically different warning times, linked to distant and local sources. Detection and warning systems such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys detect and report tsunamis, but their utility is greatest for distant tsunamis and at best limited for local tsunamis. Perceptional events such as ground shaking and sea-level changes have served as effective warning signals in historic tsunamis and may provide the first and only alert of local tsunamis (Gonzalez 1999, Dudley 1998, Darienzo in press). Communities thus must be aware of natural signs of tsunamis and possess a capacity to respond to two very different forms of warning (official and natural). No good or systematic data exists for response to natural warning signs, although scant observations of behavior in Papua New Guinea, Japan, and Hawai'i illustrate its complexity. Historic tsunamis illustrate that natural signs can serve as effective warning signals but also show many people intentionally enter tsunami danger zones. This research team will collect short-lived social data from people in affected areas of the Andaman coast, Thailand to understand human behavioral response to the events of December 26, 2004. Data will be obtained with interview questionnaires, modified from similar studies (Gregg et al., 2005, Lachman et al., 1961) to reflect the local culture and language. The research will investigate 1) people's awareness of, and response to, the natural warning signs of the tsunami, as well as warning provided by other people or observations of other people's actions, 2) the factors that determined which responses the respondent chose, 3) the factors that respondents retrospectively believe would have influenced them to act differently and 4) pre- and post-impact preparedness for tsunamis using model measures in Paton (2003). The team will also collect data from visitors who were in the disaster area but who have since repatriated. The researchers involved consist of a multidisciplinary and multicultural research team of physical scientists, psychologists, and graduate students, from Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and the US.This exploratory research is critical to help build community resilience in coastal communities because even the raw data can be used to frame models of human behavior in all communities at risk. The study will be widely disseminated through scientific publications and the Web and be used to frame effective outreach education programs that are essential to prepare communities to respond to the unique demands of warning messages for both distant and local tsunamis. This research is supported jointly by the Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) priority area, the Office of International Science and Engineering (OISE), and the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Program.