Hazards SEES Type 1: Persistent Volcanic Crises in the USA: From Precursors to Resilience

该项目汇集了一个新的研究团队，以：1)量化和减少美国活火山物理和社会/行为数据集中的不确定性；2)分析火山危机期间复杂的决策过程；3)利用贝叶斯方法处理这些事件期间决策过程中不完整的、有时相互矛盾的投入。这个项目将开始美国地质调查局火山灾害项目和七个学术机构之间的一项新的大型合作。该项目的目标是改善与美国不稳定的、具有潜在危险的活火山的关系。中等到大型火山喷发是罕见的，但后果严重，持续时间长，具有多种危险。它们携带着大量的火山、工程、数学、社会、规划和经济问题，以及所有类型数据中非常高的不确定性。在大型地质灾害中，它们几乎是独一无二的，因为在它们之前有几周或几个月的明显可识别的前兆，这为成功的早期干预提供了可能性。因此，火山喷发的影响应该是所有重大自然灾害中最容易减轻的影响之一。然而，火山灾害造成的损失往往与母体喷发的规模不成比例。

This project brings together a new research team to: 1) quantify and reduce uncertainties in physical and social/behavioral data sets for our active United States volcanoes; 2) analyze the complex processes of decision-making during volcanic crises, and 3) utilize Bayesian approaches to cope with incomplete, sometimes contradictory inputs into decision-making during these events. This project will begin a new, large collaboration between the Volcanic Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey and seven academic institutions.The goal of this project is to improve the relationship with restless, potentially dangerous active volcanoes in the United States. Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent but high-consequence events of long duration and with multiple hazards. They carry a host of volcanological, engineering, mathematical, societal, planning, and economic problems, along with very high levels of uncertainty in all types of data. Amongst large geological hazards, they are almost unique in being preceded by weeks or months of clearly recognizable precursors which offer the potential for successful early interventions. The impacts of volcanic eruptions should be, for this reason, amongst the easiest to mitigate of all the great natural hazards. Nevertheless, the costs of volcanic disasters are often out of proportion to the magnitude of the parent eruptions.