Dynamics of Low Frequency Phenomena

背景资料：热带气候预测中的一些主要问题是：（1）如何确定造成季风季节内变率的过程，（2）为什么数值模式在模拟和预测季节内变率方面做得不好，（3）如何对数值模式进行经验调整以改善预测，以及（4）我们是否已经进入一个新的气候制度，可能与全球变暖和气候变化有关。为了解决这些研究问题，我们将对季节内、年际和年代际变化进行诊断、理论和模拟研究。（1）研究热带大尺度环流和热力学方面，（2）研究热带季节内变率及其年际变率的预报，（3）研究热带地区长期关系的变异性。更广泛的影响：热带气候变异性对大多数人口的生活和福祉有着深远的影响。这项研究的结果将有助于进一步了解热带地区的大尺度和低频现象，并将改善气候预测。将培训两名研究生和两名研究生。

Background: Some of the major issues in tropical climate prediction are: (1) how to determine the processes that create monsoon intraseasonal variability, (2) why numerical models do not do well in simulating and predicting intraseasonal variability, (3) how to implement empirical adjustments to numerical models to improve forecasts, and (4) whether or not we have entered into a new climate regime, possibly related to global warming and climate change. To address these research questions several diagnostic, theoretical, and modeling studies of intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal variability will be performed.Intellectual Merit: The PI will: (1) investigate the large-scale circulation and thermodynamic aspects of the tropics, (2) study the prediction of tropical intraseasonal variability and its interannual variability, and (3) study the variability of long-term relationships in the tropics.Broader Impacts: Tropical climate variability has a profound impact on the lives and well being of the majority of the population. The outcome from the research will lead to further understanding of large scale and low frequency phenomena in the tropics and will improve climate prediction. Two postgraduate and two graduate students will be trained.