Dynamics of Low Frequency Phenomena

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Background: Some of the major issues in tropical climate prediction are: (1) how to determine the processes that create monsoon intraseasonal variability, (2) why numerical models do not do well in simulating and predicting intraseasonal variability, (3) how to implement empirical adjustments to numerical models to improve forecasts, and (4) whether or not we have entered into a new climate regime, possibly related to global warming and climate change. To address these research questions several diagnostic, theoretical, and modeling studies of intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal variability will be performed.Intellectual Merit: The PI will: (1) investigate the large-scale circulation and thermodynamic aspects of the tropics, (2) study the prediction of tropical intraseasonal variability and its interannual variability, and (3) study the variability of long-term relationships in the tropics.Broader Impacts: Tropical climate variability has a profound impact on the lives and well being of the majority of the population. The outcome from the research will lead to further understanding of large scale and low frequency phenomena in the tropics and will improve climate prediction. Two postgraduate and two graduate students will be trained.