Dynamics of Sub-Seasonal Variability of Macro-Monsoon Circulations

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This research project will address several outstanding questions concerning the weather and climate dynamics of the monsoon regions of the world - Asia, Africa and South America. One is a better understanding of the dynamics of tropical rainfall variability, with the aim of establishing a firm basis for increased prediction. Of particular interest is the variability on bi-weekly (12-16 days) and intraseasonal (30-50 days) time scales. The PI will examine how the bi-weekly variability develops in the upper atmosphere over Northern Asia and influences monsoon rainfall. These basic dynamical studies will be extend to the other monsoon regions of South America, Indonesia/North Australia, West Africa and North America. The funded research project will examine interaction between the large-scale Asian monsoon circulation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. These two phenomena are clearly related but the manner of their interaction has not been coherently established. The project will use a blend of data analysis, theoretical fluid dynamics and models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.This improved understanding will be applied to improving precipitation forecasts for these regions, which are faced with rapidly increasing population and increasing need for water and attendant stresses on the food supply. The research findings will be disseminated to scientific societies as well as the general public. This funded project will support PI and his research team to work with the World Bank and apply their monsoon research to forecast products that are being used in South Asia to help build more resilient societies and foster sustaionability. In collaboration with Climate Forecast Applications Network, the PI will apply this research to improved prediction products for South Asia and South America.