Dynamics of Low Frequency Phenomena

这个项目将调查热带大气和海洋的低频变异性。研究活动可分为三大领域。第一，伴随亚洲季风的季节内变化的可预测性。早期的工作表明，季风降雨的变化可能会导致南亚严重的洪水和重大的农业影响，这些变化是可以预测的，而这项资助下的工作将构建和测试这种季节内变化的预测方法。(2)以大尺度大气对流和降水为特征的太平洋最大海温区西太平洋暖池大小的热力和动力过程。近30年来，暖池面积急剧增加，而大尺度对流面积保持不变。这里进行的工作旨在确定控制暖池和对流区大小的因素，并确定它们的年际变率和长期长期变化。第三，亚洲季风年际变化的潜在动力。这项工作将集中在印度季风降雨极度缺乏和极度过剩的年份可能是可预测的。这项工作的更广泛影响超出了了解热带气候动力学的科学目标，因为季风降雨的波动对南亚和东南亚的人口产生了严重影响。这项研究非常强调发展具有相当实用价值的预测方法。此外，研究基金将为两名研究生和两名博士后提供培训、教育和支持。

This project will investigate the low-frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere and oceans. Research activities fall into three broad areas. First, predictability of intraseasonal variability accompanying the Asian monsoon. Earlier work suggests variations in monsoon rainfall which can cause severe flooding and substantial agricultural impacts in South Asia may be predictable, and work under this grant will construct and test forecasting methods for this intraseasonal variability. Second, the thermodynamic and dynamic processes which determine the size of the western Pacific warm pool, the region of largest sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific ocean, which is characterized by large-scale atmospheric convection and precipitation. The area of the warm pool has increased dramatically over the last 30 years, yet the area of large-scale convection has remained constant. Work conducted here seeks to determine the factors which control the size of the warm pool and convecting region and determine their year-to-year variability and long-term secular change. Third, the underlying dynamics of the year-to-year variability of the Asian monsoon. The work will focus on the possibility that years of extremely deficient and extremely excessive monsoon rainfall in India may be predictable.The broader impacts of the work go beyond the scientific goals of understanding tropical climate dynamics, since fluctuations in monsoon rainfall have severe effects on the populations of South and Southeast Asia. The research has a strong emphasis on developing forecast methodologies which could be of considerable practical value. In addition, research funds will provide training, education, and support for two graduate students and two postdoctoral scholars.