Proximity to Extreme Events: The Effect of Katrina-Rita on Optimistic Bias in Gulf Coast Counties

接近极端事件：卡特里娜-丽塔对墨西哥湾沿岸县乐观偏差的影响

• 批准号: 0554921
• 负责人: Craig Trumbo
• 金额: $ 7.41万
• 依托单位: University of Vermont & State Agricultural College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-11-15 至 2006-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0554921&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Proximity; Extreme; Events; Effect; Katrina

There is a surprising lack of scientific understanding of how individuals in hurricane-prone areas perceive hurricane risk. One enduring problem with respect to human settlement and natural hazards in general is the tendency of individuals to underestimate the risk associated with where they live. One way to possibly understand this is optimistic bias, which occurs when individuals see themselves as being less likely than others to be harmed by events in the future. Optimistic bias is well documented for risky health behaviors (e.g., smoking) and has also been observed in a variety of natural hazard contexts, including floods and earthquakes. This study will look at how individuals in Gulf Coast counties perceive hurricane risk in the wake of the Katrina-Rita extreme event: two major hurricanes making landfall within 25 days and approximately 300 miles of each other. The study will examine optimistic bias for hurricane risk as a function of distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall zone to see if the proximity of such an extreme event has any effect on the degree of optimistic bias for hurricane risk. The hypothesis is that higher levels of optimistic bias for hurricane risk will be seen at greater distances from the extreme event. We will conduct a mail survey of individuals in counties that lie immediately on the Gulf Coast (excluding the area of extreme destruction from Katrina-Rita). This 70-mile wide strip of land has maximum hurricane risk and is home to nearly 7 million people, with an average of 300 persons per square mile. The sampling strategy will result in a dataset of approximately 800 responses distributed randomly around the Gulf. A better understanding of how people orient toward hurricane risk is of increasing urgency given the continued growth of the coastal population, the role of coastal development in the economic impact of hurricanes, and a trend toward stronger hurricanes in the future. Coastal communities, states, and the federal government are beginning to reassess their hurricane emergency planning. Community planners also face difficult questions with respect to coastal development, as does the insurance industry. This study will provide insight into individuals' orientation toward hurricane risk and will inform the development and implementation of risk communications designed to best inform individuals about both impending and long-term hurricane risks.

令人惊讶的是，人们对飓风易发地区的个人如何看待飓风风险缺乏科学认识。人类住区和自然灾害方面的一个长期存在的问题是，人们往往低估与他们居住的地方有关的风险。一种可能理解这一点的方法是乐观偏见，当个人认为自己比其他人更不可能受到未来事件的伤害时，就会发生这种情况。乐观偏见是有据可查的危险健康行为（例如，吸烟），并已在各种自然灾害的情况下，包括洪水和地震中观察到。这项研究将研究墨西哥湾沿岸各县的个人如何看待卡特里娜-丽塔极端事件后的飓风风险：两个主要飓风在25天内登陆，彼此相距约300英里。该研究将研究飓风风险的乐观偏差作为与卡特里娜-丽塔登陆区距离的函数，看看这种极端事件的接近程度是否对飓风风险的乐观偏差程度有任何影响。假设是，在距离极端事件更远的地方，对飓风风险的乐观偏见程度更高。我们将对墨西哥湾沿岸各县的个人进行邮件调查（不包括卡特里娜飓风造成的极端破坏地区）。这片70英里宽的狭长地带有最大的飓风风险，是近700万人的家园，平均每平方英里300人。抽样战略将产生一个约800个随机分布在海湾周围的答复的数据集。考虑到沿海人口的持续增长、沿海发展在飓风经济影响中的作用以及未来更强飓风的趋势，更好地了解人们如何应对飓风风险变得越来越紧迫。沿海社区、各州和联邦政府开始重新评估他们的飓风应急计划。社区规划者也面临着沿海发展方面的难题，保险业也是如此。这项研究将深入了解个人对飓风风险的取向，并将为风险沟通的制定和实施提供信息，以最好地告知个人即将发生和长期的飓风风险。