Proximity to Extreme Events: The Effect of Katrina-Rita on Optimistic Bias in Gulf Coast Counties

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There is a surprising lack of scientific understanding of how individuals in hurricane-prone areas perceive hurricane risk. One enduring problem with respect to human settlement and natural hazards in general is the tendency of individuals to underestimate the risk associated with where they live. One way to possibly understand this is optimistic bias, which occurs when individuals see themselves as being less likely than others to be harmed by events in the future. Optimistic bias is well documented for risky health behaviors (e.g., smoking) and has also been observed in a variety of natural hazard contexts, including floods and earthquakes. This study will look at how individuals in Gulf Coast counties perceive hurricane risk in the wake of the Katrina-Rita extreme event: two major hurricanes making landfall within 25 days and approximately 300 miles of each other. The study will examine optimistic bias for hurricane risk as a function of distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall zone to see if the proximity of such an extreme event has any effect on the degree of optimistic bias for hurricane risk. The hypothesis is that higher levels of optimistic bias for hurricane risk will be seen at greater distances from the extreme event. We will conduct a mail survey of individuals in counties that lie immediately on the Gulf Coast (excluding the area of extreme destruction from Katrina-Rita). This 70-mile wide strip of land has maximum hurricane risk and is home to nearly 7 million people, with an average of 300 persons per square mile. The sampling strategy will result in a dataset of approximately 800 responses distributed randomly around the Gulf. A better understanding of how people orient toward hurricane risk is of increasing urgency given the continued growth of the coastal population, the role of coastal development in the economic impact of hurricanes, and a trend toward stronger hurricanes in the future. Coastal communities, states, and the federal government are beginning to reassess their hurricane emergency planning. Community planners also face difficult questions with respect to coastal development, as does the insurance industry. This study will provide insight into individuals' orientation toward hurricane risk and will inform the development and implementation of risk communications designed to best inform individuals about both impending and long-term hurricane risks.