Equipment Replacement Under Continuous and Discontinuous Technological Change

这笔赠款为包括连续和不连续技术变化的设备更换问题的建模和解决问题的研究提供资金。持续的技术变化是指随着时间的推移，可供替换的资产逐渐改善。这些通常与制造商定期发布新机型不谋而合，新机型比以前的机型效率更高。不连续的技术变革是指技术上的突破，与以前的模式相比，往往伴随着生产率的跃升。我们假设突破定义了一种新的年份的资产，在相同年份的后续模型发布中逐渐改进。在任何一种情况下，这项技术的经济影响可能都要等到它到来时才能知道。随机动态规划被用来解决在技术、资金预算约束和多供应商情况下的这一问题。由于系统的状态空间很大，将使用近似技术来解决更长时间段的问题，确保(接近)最优的时间零决策。这项工作的预期好处在于能够为医院等技术资产的消费者确定最优或接近最优的政策。为了验证这些见解，利哈伊谷医院提供了超过2.4万件医疗设备的数据。这些信息将使所开发的模型得以应用。此外，这项工作的扩展将更密切地研究如何影响消费者对技术变化的选择。例如，制造商可能会提供维护合同或专门的保修，以便在分担使用新技术的风险的同时吸引购买。此外，政府可能会鼓励制造商以更大的投资采用更新的技术。这些政策可以通过分析不同条件下的最优替代政策来审查。这些分析的好处将在于设计促进资本投资和技术创新的方法(政策和合同)。

This grant provides funding for research into the modeling and solution of equipment replacement problems that incorporate both continuous and discontinuous technological change. Continuous technological change refers to the gradual improvement in assets available over time for replacement. These generally coincide with the manufacturer periodically releasing new models, which are more efficient than previous models. Discontinuous technological change refers to breakthroughs in technology, often accompanied by jumps in productivity when compared to previous models. We assume breakthroughs define a new vintage of asset that gradually improves in subsequent model releases of the same vintage. In either case, the economic impact of the technology may not be known until it arrives. Stochastic dynamic programming is proposed to solve this problem under various scenarios of technological, capital budgeting constraints, and multiple suppliers. Due to the large state space of the system, approximation techniques will be used to allow for the solution of longer horizon problems, ensuring (near) optimal time zero decisions. The expected benefits of this work lie in the ability to determine optimal or near optimal policies for consumers of technological assets, such as hospitals. To verify these insights, Lehigh Valley Hospital has offered data on over 24,000 pieces of medical equipment. This information will allow for the application of the developed models.Furthermore, extensions of this work will more closely examine how to influence consumers' choices concerning technological change. For example, manufacturers may offer maintenance contracts or pecialized warranties in order to entice purchases while sharing the risk of using newer technologies. Furthermore, governments may offer incentives for manufacturers to adopt newer technologies with greater investment.These policies can be examined by analyzing the optimal replacement policies under differing conditions. The benefits of these analyses will be in designing methods (policies and contracts) that foster capital investment and technological innovation.