Equipment Replacement Under Continuous and Discontinuous Technological Change

这项拨款为包括连续和非连续技术变革在内的设备更换问题的建模和解决方案的研究提供资金。持续的技术变革是指随着时间的推移，可供替换的资产逐渐改善。这通常与制造商定期发布新车型相吻合，新车型比以前的车型更高效。不连续的技术变革指的是技术上的突破，与以前的模式相比，往往伴随着生产力的飞跃。我们假设突破定义了一个新的资产年份，在同一年份的后续模型版本中逐渐改进。在这两种情况下，这项技术的经济影响可能在它到来之前还不为人所知。随机动态规划将用于解决在技术、资金预算约束和多个供应商的各种情况下的这一问题。由于系统的大状态空间，将使用近似技术来允许解决更长的视界问题，确保（接近）最优时间零决策。这项工作的预期好处在于能够为技术资产的消费者（如医院）确定最佳或接近最佳的政策。为了验证这些见解，利哈伊谷医院提供了超过2.4万件医疗设备的数据。这些信息将允许开发的模型的应用。这项工作的延伸将更密切地研究如何影响消费者对技术变革的选择。例如，制造商可能提供维修合同或专门担保，以吸引购买，同时分担使用新技术的风险，政府可能为制造商提供激励措施，以增加投资采用新技术。这些策略可以通过分析不同条件下的最优替代策略来检验。这些分析的好处将在于设计促进资本投资和技术创新的方法（政策和合同）。

This grant provides funding for research into the modeling and solution of equipment replacement problems that incorporate both continuous and discontinuous technological change. Continuous technological change refers to the gradual improvement in assets available over time for replacement. These generally coincide with the manufacturer periodically releasing new models, which are more efficient than previous models. Discontinuous technological change refers to breakthroughs in technology, often accompanied by jumps in productivity when compared to previous models. We assume breakthroughs define a new vintage of asset that gradually improves in subsequent model releases of the same vintage. In either case, the economic impact of the technology may not be known until it arrives. Stochastic dynamic programming is will be used to solve this problem under various scenarios of technological, capital budgeting constraints, and multiple suppliers. Due to the large state space of the system, approximation techniques will be used to allow for the solution of longer horizon problems, ensuring (near) optimal time zero decisions.The expected benefits of this work lie in the ability to determine optimal or near optimal policies for consumers of technological assets, such as hospitals. To verify these insights, Lehigh Valley Hospital has offered data on over 24,000 pieces of medical equipment. This information will allow for the application of the developed models. Extensions of this work will more closely examine how to influence consumers' choices concerning technological change. For example, manufacturers may offer maintenance contracts or specialized warranties in order to entice purchases while sharing the risk of using newer technologies and governments may offer incentives for manufacturers to adopt newer technologies with greater investment. These policies can be examined by analyzing the optimal replacement policies under differing conditions. The benefits of these analyses will be in designing methods (policies and contracts) that foster capital investment and technological innovation.