Vulnerability of the carbon and water cycles in primary rainforest and agroforestry ecosystems in Indonesia to Climate Change

当前和未来的气候变化正在影响印度尼西亚自然生态系统和管理的生态系统的运作，改变了能量平衡以及水和温室气体的流动，从而影响了生态系统的生产力。土地使用的变化，例如从自然生态系统到管理的生态系统，可能在所有空间尺度上对地表特性，特别是水循环产生重要的气候反馈。该提案的主要目标是：（a）量化与环境驱动因素有关的原始雨林和可可种植园的生态系统-大气能量、水和CO2通量交换;（B）利用稳定的水同位素确定大气水的来源和再循环（18 O和2 H），以及（c）评估土地利用变化对区域气候强迫和水循环的反馈。在方法上，我们将结合联合收割机涡度相关测量的能量，水和CO2通量在苏拉威西岛的两个站点与新的在线测量18 O和2 H的水蒸气，使用激光光谱学和区域尺度气候模拟。将两个塔址和气象站网络测得的新数据与区域气候建模相结合，将评估碳和水循环对全球变化的脆弱性，从而有助于确定世纪土地利用的高风险地区。

Current and future climatic changes are affecting the functioning of natural and managed ecosystems in Indonesia by altering the energy balance and fluxes of water and greenhouse gases and consequently the productivity of the ecosystems. Land use changes e.g. from natural to managed ecosystems may results in important climatic feedbacks at all spatial scales in terms of surface properties and particularly in the water cycle. The main objectives of the proposal are (a) to quantify the ecosystem – atmosphere exchange of energy, water and CO2 fluxes over a primary rainforest and a cacao plantation in relation to environmental drivers, (b) to determine the origin and recycling of atmospheric water using stable water isotopes (18O and 2H), and (c) to assess the feedbacks of changing land use on regional climate forcing and the water cycle. Methodologically, we will combine eddy covariance measurements of energy, water, and CO2 fluxes at two sites on the Sulawesi Island with novel online measurements of 18O and 2H in water vapor using laser spectroscopy, and regional scale climate modeling. Combining new data measured at the two tower sites and a meteo-station network with regional climate modeling will provide an assessment of the vulnerability of the carbon and water cycle to global change and thus help to identify high risk areas for land use during the 21st century.