Collaborative Research: Global Aspects of Tropical Cyclogenesis

合作研究：热带气旋发生的全球方面

• 批准号: 0630721
• 负责人: David Nolan
• 金额: $ 21.16万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-10-01 至 2009-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0630721&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Global; Aspects; Tropical

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) do not appear spontaneously in the tropical atmosphere; instead they must be triggered by a preexisting disturbance. It is hypothesized that these storms are subcritical instabilities of the tropical atmosphere. This implies that the strength of the disturbance necessary to trigger a hurricane depends on the background state of the tropical atmosphere and ocean, and that, at least in theory, hurricanes could appear spontaneously in a different climate, one with instability parameters that exceed a critical point.The hypothesis of subcritical instability will be explored using a high-resolution numerical model to map out the instability diagram for tropical cyclogenesis and to reveal physical processes underlying the structure of this diagram. Physical insights from these experiments, together with observational data and experiments with a more idealized model, will be used to develop and refine a cyclogenesis index. Ultimately such an index can provide information about the frequency with which hurricanes form in different climates.Broader impacts of this research include training a graduate student and a post-doctoral researcher, as well as developing understanding and tools that could lead to improved predictions of how tropical cyclone activity will change as climate changes, either naturally or due to human influence.

热带气旋（飓风）在热带气氛中不会自发出现；取而代之的是，它们必须由先前存在的干扰触发。假设这些风暴是热带气氛的亚临界不稳定性。这意味着触发飓风所必需的干扰的强度取决于热带大气和海洋的背景状态，至少在理论上，飓风可能在不同的气候下自发地出现，具有不稳定的参数超过关键点的不稳定性的过程。该图的结构的基础。这些实验的物理见解以及观察性数据和具有更理想化的模型的实验将用于开发和完善环生成指数。最终，这样的指数可以提供有关飓风在不同气候下形成的频率的信息。这项研究的影响包括培训研究生和博士后研究人员，以及开发理解和工具，这些理解和工具可以改善对热带气旋活动将如何随着气候变化而变化，或者由于人类的影响而变化。