Collaborative Research: Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone Activity
合作研究:热带气旋活动的环境控制
基本信息
- 批准号:0851021
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 42.46万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2009
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2009-06-15 至 2012-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Recent research has established that much and perhaps most of the interannual to interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone activity integrated over ocean basins is controlled by the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environment in which the storms develop. Statistical and model-based hindcasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity capture as much as 65% of the interannual variance of tropical cyclone frequency, despite taking little or no account of potential initiating disturbances, such as African easterly waves. These same techniques, however, produce greatly divergent results when applied to global warming scenarios. This highlights the need for a better physical understanding of the link between tropical cyclones and climate. This project will seek such an understanding using several different, but complementary, approaches. The first is an investigation, using a cloud-scale model, of the formation, or failure to form, of tropical cyclones from seed cyclonic disturbances in large-scale environments of radiative-convective equilibrium with shear. Previous results with this method will be extended to a wider range of wind profiles that include speed and directional shear, allowing for a careful study of cyclogenesis (or failure) in realistic environments that still can be systematically adjusted and compared. A second approach builds on the success of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI), which, when applied to historical data, has been shown to explain much of the interannual variance and long-term trend in tropical cyclone activity. Here it will be used to understand the physical factors responsible for predicted variations in the GPI in climate models simulating the response to global warming. The index will be improved using results from the cloud-resolving model simulations. Finally, one or two cases of genesis in the cloud-resolving model will be analyzed in some depth, in an attempt to test the hypothesis that tropical cyclones can develop only in mesoscale patches that are nearly saturated through most of the troposphere.Broader impacts are in advancing understanding of the relationships between tropical climate and tropical cyclone activity. This could lead to better and more useful assessments of how tropical cyclone activity may or may not change with a changing climate. This work may also yield a more fundamental understanding of the process of tropical cyclone formation, ultimately leading to better short-term forecasts of the formation of tropical depressions and storms. The project will support the training of a young scientist or post-doc and a graduate student and will contribute to further development of a flexible idealized hurricane modeling system based on the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法》(公法111-5)资助的。最近的研究表明,海洋流域综合的热带气旋活动的年际至年代际变化的很大一部分甚至大部分是由风暴形成的大尺度大气和海洋环境控制的。大西洋热带气旋活动的统计和基于模型的事后预测捕捉了热带气旋频率年际变化的65%,尽管很少或根本没有考虑到潜在的启动扰动,如非洲东风波。然而,这些同样的技术在应用于全球变暖情景时产生了截然不同的结果。这突出表明需要更好地了解热带气旋与气候之间的联系。该项目将使用几种不同但互补的方法寻求这样的理解。第一个是利用云尺度模式,研究在具有切变的辐射-对流平衡的大尺度环境中,热带气旋由种子气旋扰动形成或未能形成的情况。这种方法以前的结果将扩展到更广泛的风廓线,包括速度和方向切变,从而允许仔细研究现实环境中的气旋生成(或失败),这些环境仍然可以进行系统调整和比较。第二种方法建立在创世潜力指数(GPI)成功的基础上,当应用于历史数据时,该指数已被证明解释了热带气旋活动的大部分年际变化和长期趋势。在这里,它将被用来理解在模拟全球变暖反应的气候模型中,导致GPI预测变化的物理因素。该指数将使用云解析模型模拟的结果进行改进。最后,将对云解析模式中的一到两个成因进行一些深入的分析,试图检验热带气旋只能在几乎饱和于对流层大部分的中尺度斑块中发展的假设。更广泛的影响是促进对热带气候和热带气旋活动之间关系的理解。这可能导致对热带气旋活动可能或不会随着气候变化而变化的更好和更有用的评估。这项工作还可能产生对热带气旋形成过程的更基本的理解,最终导致对热带低气压和风暴形成的更好的短期预测。该项目将支持对一名年轻科学家或博士后和一名研究生的培训,并将有助于在广泛使用的天气研究和预报(WRF)模型的基础上进一步开发灵活的理想化飓风建模系统。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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David Nolan其他文献
Understanding the deformation gradient in Abaqus and key guidelines for anisotropic hyperelastic user material subroutines (UMATs).
了解 Abaqus 中的变形梯度和各向异性超弹性用户材料子程序 (UMAT) 的关键指南。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.9
- 作者:
David Nolan;C. Lally;Patrick McGarry - 通讯作者:
Patrick McGarry
"Sit Up Straight": Time to Re-evaluate.
“坐直”:重新评估的时候了。
- DOI:
10.2519/jospt.2019.0610 - 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
D. Slater;V. Korakakis;P. O'Sullivan;David Nolan;K. O’Sullivan - 通讯作者:
K. O’Sullivan
DECISIVE MOMENTS AND DECISIVE CHANGE: VETERAN PHOTOJOURNALIST PERSPECTIVES ON CHANGES IN LEARNING AND PRACTICE
决定性时刻和决定性变化:资深摄影记者对学习和实践变化的看法
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2012 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
David Nolan - 通讯作者:
David Nolan
<strong>73.</strong> : A unique case of central nervous system immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome: Examination of antigen specific T cell immunity
- DOI:
10.1016/j.jocn.2014.06.087 - 发表时间:
2014-11-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Kevin D.J. O’Connor;Niamh M. Keane;David Nolan;Wai Leong;Mina John - 通讯作者:
Mina John
Detection and characterization of viruses of the genus Megalocytivirus in ornamental fish imported into an Australian border quarantine premises: an emerging risk to national biosecurity.
进口到澳大利亚边境检疫场所的观赏鱼中巨细胞病毒属病毒的检测和特征分析:国家生物安全面临的新风险。
- DOI:
10.1111/jfd.12222 - 发表时间:
2015 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.5
- 作者:
David Nolan;F. Stephens;M. Crockford;J. B. Jones;Michael Snow - 通讯作者:
Michael Snow
David Nolan的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('David Nolan', 18)}}的其他基金
Tropical Cyclones from 400 to 40 hPa
400 至 40 hPa 的热带气旋
- 批准号:
2334173 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Convective Gravity Waves in the Stratosphere (CGWaveS)
合作研究:平流层对流重力波(CGWaveS)
- 批准号:
2017319 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: More resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopy
预防事件轨道 2:协作研究:通过对城市冠层极端风的多尺度建模,增强沿海城市的复原力和更好的飓风预报
- 批准号:
1663947 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
The Spectrum of Gravity Waves Radiating from Tropical Cyclones with Observations, Simulations, and Theoretical Modeling
通过观测、模拟和理论建模研究热带气旋辐射的重力波频谱
- 批准号:
1654831 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Advancing Understanding of the Tornado Vortex through Numerical Simulations of Increasing Complexity and Evaluation of Observing Systems
通过增加复杂性的数值模拟和观测系统的评估来增进对龙卷风涡旋的理解
- 批准号:
1265899 - 财政年份:2013
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Tropical Waves and Intertropical Convergence Zones in Simulations with Explicit Convection
协作研究:显式对流模拟中的热带波和热带辐合带
- 批准号:
1146701 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Understanding Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Wind Shear through a Synthesis of Observational Data Sets and Idealized Simulations
合作研究:通过综合观测数据集和理想化模拟了解风切变中的热带气旋演化
- 批准号:
1132646 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
The Horizontal and Vertical Structure of Tropical Cyclones: Theory, Observations, and Idealized Modeling
热带气旋的水平和垂直结构:理论、观测和理想化建模
- 批准号:
0756308 - 财政年份:2008
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: Global Aspects of Tropical Cyclogenesis
合作研究:热带气旋发生的全球方面
- 批准号:
0630721 - 财政年份:2006
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Symmetric and Asymmetric Intensification Processes in Tropical Cyclones
热带气旋的对称和非对称强化过程
- 批准号:
0432551 - 财政年份:2005
- 资助金额:
$ 42.46万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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