PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: More resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopy

第二轨道：协作研究通过对城市冠层中的极端风进行多尺度建模，增强沿海城市的抵御能力，并更好地进行飓风预报Award 1663978当飓风抵达海岸时，地面附近的风会发生什么变化取决于覆盖地面的东西。 无论覆盖物是草、树、人行道、分散的小房子，还是密集的摩天大楼群，都会影响风？速度、方向和阵风。 这种影响可能因城市的不同而不同，甚至从建筑物的一侧到另一侧也是如此。 专家们并不像他们所希望的那样了解这些变化。 几十年来，用于预测天气的计算机模型变得更加准确和详细，但几乎没有提供关于风速和阵风在城市和郊区景观中如何变化的信息。该项目的目标是使用最先进的计算机模型来了解更多信息，并提高我们预测建筑物如何破坏和改变登陆飓风下的风的能力，从地面上方到建筑物顶部附近。 研究结果将促进更好的方法来设计和定位沿海建筑物和其他基础设施，更好的方法来预测飓风，更好的方法来保护生命和财产在即将到来的登陆，以及更好的方法来立即响应。 该项目将包括1名研究生，以帮助为这一领域的下一代研究人员提供帮助。在项目期间通过计算机模拟？在第一阶段，一系列不同布局的标准建筑类型将受到典型飓风的袭击。 这些模拟将揭示在典型天气预报模型通常不可见的尺度上发挥作用的最重要，最基本的物理过程，但对城市和郊区景观中的风的变化至关重要。 利用第一阶段获得的知识，在第二阶段，研究人员将改进行业标准天气研究和预报（WRF）模型的组件，这些组件最直接负责预测发达地区的风。 这些组件的设计最适合大多数天气的典型低风速，而不是飓风。 项目第二阶段改进的WRF模型将用于第三阶段，以模拟至少一次历史飓风的实际登陆。 研究人员将检索飓风的记录？的天气观测和风灾，以验证改进后的模型，评估其代表性的飓风风力在城市和郊区地区已得到加强。 在第四阶段，研究人员将审查更多过去在美国和墨西哥登陆的飓风，以选择风暴的子集进行额外的模拟。 条件将被扰动，以改变这些实际风暴的特征，产生一个集合，通常称为集合，合成飓风，跨越现实的广泛类型。 最后，在该项目的第五阶段，将把第四阶段的结果与社会经济信息和风灾数学方程结合起来，绘制出第四阶段选定城市内易受飓风大风影响程度的变化图。

PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative ResearchMore resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopyAward 1663978When a hurricane arrives at the coast, what happens to wind near the ground depends on what is covering the ground. Whether that covering is grass, trees, pavement, a scattering of small houses, or a densely packed cluster of skyscrapers will affect the wind?s speed, direction, and gustiness. Such effects can vary from one part of a city to another, even from one side of a building to another. Experts do not understand such variations as well as they would like. Computer models used to forecast weather have become more accurate and detailed over the decades but provide little information about how wind speeds and wind gusts vary across city and suburban landscapes. The goal of this project is to use state-of-the-art computer models to learn more about and to improve our ability to predict how buildings disrupt and modify the wind beneath landfalling hurricanes, from just above the ground to near the tops of buildings. Results will foster better ways to design and locate buildings and other infrastructure near coasts, better ways to forecast hurricane-force winds, better ways to protect lives and property in the face of impending landfall, and better ways to respond immediately afterward. The project will include 1 graduate student to help provide for the next generation of researchers in this area. Through computer simulations during the project?s first phase, a range of standard building types in different layouts will be subjected to strikes from archetypal hurricanes. The simulations will reveal the most important, fundamental physical processes at play on scales that are usually invisible to typical weather forecast models yet are critical to the variation of wind in urban and suburban landscapes. Armed with the knowledge gained in that first phase, during phase II researchers will then improve the components of the industry-standard Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model that are most directly responsible for predicting wind in developed areas. Those components were designed to work best for the lower wind speeds typical of most weather, not for hurricane-force winds. The improved WRF Model from phase II of the project will then be used in phase III to simulate the actual landfall of at least one historical hurricane. Researchers will retrieve records of the hurricane?s weather observations and wind damage to validate the improved model, evaluating how its representation of hurricane-force winds in urban and suburban areas has been enhanced. In phase IV, researchers will review more past hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. and Mexico to select a subset of storms for additional simulations. Conditions will be perturbed to change the characteristics of those actual storms, generating a collection, often called an ensemble, of synthetic hurricanes that spans a realistically wide range of types. Finally, in phase V of the project, results from phase IV will be combined with socioeconomic information and mathematical equations for wind damage to create maps of how the vulnerability to high winds in hurricanes varies within the cities selected in phase IV.