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PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: More resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopy

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：通过对城市冠层极端风的多尺度建模，增强沿海城市的复原力和更好的飓风预报

基本信息

批准号：
1663947
负责人：
David Nolan
金额：
$ 51.08万
依托单位：
University of Miami
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-01 至 2022-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1663947&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Collaborative Research More

项目摘要

PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative ResearchMore resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopyAward 1663978When a hurricane arrives at the coast, what happens to wind near the ground depends on what is covering the ground. Whether that covering is grass, trees, pavement, a scattering of small houses, or a densely packed cluster of skyscrapers will affect the wind?s speed, direction, and gustiness. Such effects can vary from one part of a city to another, even from one side of a building to another. Experts do not understand such variations as well as they would like. Computer models used to forecast weather have become more accurate and detailed over the decades but provide little information about how wind speeds and wind gusts vary across city and suburban landscapes. The goal of this project is to use state-of-the-art computer models to learn more about and to improve our ability to predict how buildings disrupt and modify the wind beneath landfalling hurricanes, from just above the ground to near the tops of buildings. Results will foster better ways to design and locate buildings and other infrastructure near coasts, better ways to forecast hurricane-force winds, better ways to protect lives and property in the face of impending landfall, and better ways to respond immediately afterward. The project will include 1 graduate student to help provide for the next generation of researchers in this area. Through computer simulations during the project?s first phase, a range of standard building types in different layouts will be subjected to strikes from archetypal hurricanes. The simulations will reveal the most important, fundamental physical processes at play on scales that are usually invisible to typical weather forecast models yet are critical to the variation of wind in urban and suburban landscapes. Armed with the knowledge gained in that first phase, during phase II researchers will then improve the components of the industry-standard Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model that are most directly responsible for predicting wind in developed areas. Those components were designed to work best for the lower wind speeds typical of most weather, not for hurricane-force winds. The improved WRF Model from phase II of the project will then be used in phase III to simulate the actual landfall of at least one historical hurricane. Researchers will retrieve records of the hurricane?s weather observations and wind damage to validate the improved model, evaluating how its representation of hurricane-force winds in urban and suburban areas has been enhanced. In phase IV, researchers will review more past hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. and Mexico to select a subset of storms for additional simulations. Conditions will be perturbed to change the characteristics of those actual storms, generating a collection, often called an ensemble, of synthetic hurricanes that spans a realistically wide range of types. Finally, in phase V of the project, results from phase IV will be combined with socioeconomic information and mathematical equations for wind damage to create maps of how the vulnerability to high winds in hurricanes varies within the cities selected in phase IV.

专题2：合作研究通过对城市冠层极端风的多尺度建模，增强沿海城市的弹性和更好的飓风预报当飓风到达海岸时，地面附近的风发生了什么取决于覆盖地面的东西。无论是草地、树木、人行道、零星的小房子，还是密密麻麻的摩天大楼，都会对风产生影响？S的速度、方向和强度。这种影响在城市的不同地区，甚至在建筑物的不同侧面都是不同的。专家们并不像他们所希望的那样了解这些变化。几十年来，用于预测天气的计算机模型变得更加准确和详细，但对于城市和郊区的风速和阵风如何变化，几乎没有提供任何信息。该项目的目标是使用最先进的计算机模型来了解和提高我们预测建筑物如何破坏和改变飓风登陆下的风的能力，从地面上方到建筑物顶部附近。研究结果将有助于找到更好的方法来设计和定位靠近海岸的建筑物和其他基础设施，更好的方法来预测飓风强度，更好的方法来面对即将到来的登陆保护生命和财产，以及更好的方法在登陆后立即做出反应。该项目将包括一名研究生，以帮助为该领域的下一代研究人员提供帮助。在项目中通过计算机模拟吗？在第一阶段，一系列不同布局的标准建筑类型将受到原型飓风的袭击。模拟将揭示最重要、最基本的物理过程，这些过程在典型的天气预报模型中通常是看不见的，但对城市和郊区景观的风的变化至关重要。有了在第一阶段获得的知识，在第二阶段，研究人员将改进工业标准的天气研究和预报（WRF）模型的组成部分，这些部分最直接负责预测发达地区的风力。这些组件的设计是为了在大多数天气中典型的较低风速下发挥最佳作用，而不是飓风级别的强风。项目第二阶段改进的WRF模型将在第三阶段使用，以模拟历史上至少一次飓风的实际登陆。研究人员将检索飓风的记录。以验证改进的模型，评估其对城市和郊区飓风强度的表征如何得到增强。在第四阶段，研究人员将回顾更多过去在美国和墨西哥登陆的飓风，选择一个风暴子集进行额外的模拟。条件会受到干扰，从而改变那些实际风暴的特征，形成一个通常被称为集合的合成飓风集合，这些飓风涵盖了各种各样的类型。最后，在项目的第五阶段，第四阶段的结果将与社会经济信息和风力损害的数学方程相结合，以创建第四阶段所选城市在飓风中对强风的脆弱性如何变化的地图。