PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: More resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopy

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：通过对城市冠层极端风的多尺度建模，增强沿海城市的复原力和更好的飓风预报

基本信息

批准号：
1663947
负责人：
David Nolan
金额：
$ 51.08万
依托单位：
University of Miami
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-01 至 2022-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1663947&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Collaborative Research More

项目摘要

PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative ResearchMore resilient coastal cities and better hurricane forecasts through multi-scale modeling of extreme winds in the urban canopyAward 1663978When a hurricane arrives at the coast, what happens to wind near the ground depends on what is covering the ground. Whether that covering is grass, trees, pavement, a scattering of small houses, or a densely packed cluster of skyscrapers will affect the wind?s speed, direction, and gustiness. Such effects can vary from one part of a city to another, even from one side of a building to another. Experts do not understand such variations as well as they would like. Computer models used to forecast weather have become more accurate and detailed over the decades but provide little information about how wind speeds and wind gusts vary across city and suburban landscapes. The goal of this project is to use state-of-the-art computer models to learn more about and to improve our ability to predict how buildings disrupt and modify the wind beneath landfalling hurricanes, from just above the ground to near the tops of buildings. Results will foster better ways to design and locate buildings and other infrastructure near coasts, better ways to forecast hurricane-force winds, better ways to protect lives and property in the face of impending landfall, and better ways to respond immediately afterward. The project will include 1 graduate student to help provide for the next generation of researchers in this area. Through computer simulations during the project?s first phase, a range of standard building types in different layouts will be subjected to strikes from archetypal hurricanes. The simulations will reveal the most important, fundamental physical processes at play on scales that are usually invisible to typical weather forecast models yet are critical to the variation of wind in urban and suburban landscapes. Armed with the knowledge gained in that first phase, during phase II researchers will then improve the components of the industry-standard Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model that are most directly responsible for predicting wind in developed areas. Those components were designed to work best for the lower wind speeds typical of most weather, not for hurricane-force winds. The improved WRF Model from phase II of the project will then be used in phase III to simulate the actual landfall of at least one historical hurricane. Researchers will retrieve records of the hurricane?s weather observations and wind damage to validate the improved model, evaluating how its representation of hurricane-force winds in urban and suburban areas has been enhanced. In phase IV, researchers will review more past hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. and Mexico to select a subset of storms for additional simulations. Conditions will be perturbed to change the characteristics of those actual storms, generating a collection, often called an ensemble, of synthetic hurricanes that spans a realistically wide range of types. Finally, in phase V of the project, results from phase IV will be combined with socioeconomic information and mathematical equations for wind damage to create maps of how the vulnerability to high winds in hurricanes varies within the cities selected in phase IV.

预先探索曲目2：通过对城市Canopyaward 1663978中极风的多尺度建模，飓风到达沿海地区时，合作研究的沿海城市和更好的飓风预测，在沿海地区到达，在地面附近发生的风在地面附近发生了什么取决于地面覆盖地面的东西。覆盖物是草，树木，人行道，小房子的散射，还是密集的摩天大楼簇会影响风的速度，方向和阵风。从城市的一个部分到另一部分，甚至从建筑物的一侧到另一侧，这种效果可能会有所不同。专家不像他们想要的那样了解这种变化。在过去的几十年中，用于预测天气的计算机模型已经变得更加准确和详细，但几乎没有提供有关风速和风阵的信息在整个城市和郊区景观中的变化。该项目的目的是使用最先进的计算机模型来了解更多有关并提高我们预测建筑物如何破坏和修改登陆飓风下方的风的能力，从地面上方到建筑物顶部附近。结果将培养更好的方法来设计和定位海岸附近建筑物和其他基础设施，更好的方法来预测飓风风，更好地保护生命和财产的方法，以面对即将到来的登陆，以及随后立即反应的更好方法。该项目将包括1名研究生，以帮助为该领域的下一代研究人员提供。通过在项目的第一阶段中，通过计算机模拟，一系列不同布局的标准建筑类型将受到原型飓风的罢工。模拟将揭示通常在典型天气预测模型上看不见的尺度上最重要的基本物理过程，但对于城市和郊区风景的风变化至关重要。在第一阶段获得的知识的武装中，在第二阶段的研究人员将改善行业标准的天气研究和预测模型（WRF）模型的组成部分，这些模型最直接负责预测发达区域的风。这些组件的设计最适合大多数天气中典型的较低风速，而不是飓风风。然后，将在项目的第二阶段进行改进的WRF模型，然后在第三阶段使用，以模拟至少一项历史飓风的实际登陆。研究人员将检索飓风的天气观察记录和风损伤，以验证改进的模型，以评估其在城市和郊区飓风中的代表如何增强。在第四阶段，研究人员将审查更多的过去飓风，这些飓风在美国和墨西哥登陆，以选择一部分风暴以进行其他模拟。条件将受到干扰，以改变那些实际风暴的特征，从而产生合成飓风的集合（通常称为合奏），这些飓风涵盖了跨越广泛的类型。最后，在项目的V阶段，IV期的结果将与社会经济信息和数学方程相结合，以创建图中飓风中对飓风中大风的脆弱性在IV期选择的城市中如何变化的地图。