The Horizontal and Vertical Structure of Tropical Cyclones: Theory, Observations, and Idealized Modeling

热带气旋的水平和垂直结构：理论、观测和理想化建模

• 批准号: 0756308
• 负责人: David Nolan
• 金额: $ 37.14万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-06-15 至 2012-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0756308&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Horizontal; Vertical; Structure; Tropical; Cyclones

Intellectual content of the proposal: The accurate prediction of the size and intensity of tropical cyclones remains one of the prominent challenges in modern meteorology. In this project, two distinct but complementary tools will be used together to understand what processes control and modulate both the horizontal and vertical structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. These tools will be: 1) high-resolution simulations using a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) which has been modified to support tropical cyclone simulations in highly idealized and controlled environments, and 2) a linear but sophisticated model of asymmetric and symmetric vortex dynamics that has been developed and used by the Principal Investigator (PI) over the last six years, known as Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analysis and Simulation (3DVPAS). Since pioneering work of Kerry Emanuel in the 1980s on the theory of the vertical structure of a mature hurricane, little attention has been paid to the role that vertical structure plays in controlling current intensity and future intensity changes. The PI will use the WRF model to simulate cyclones with a variety of vertical and horizontal structures, embedded in environments with controlled mean flow and mean shear speeds. 3DVPAS will be used to assess the implications of these structure changes for future intensification, and to analyze the roles of convective asymmetries (such as spiral bands) in changing the vertical and horizontal structure of the symmetric wind field. Results from both methods of study will be compared and validated against radar observations of the hurricane wind field, obtained from NOAA/HRD and during the Rainband Intensity Experiment (RAINEX). Broader impacts of the proposal: The broader impacts of this work will be to increase understanding of the evolution of the size and structure of the hurricane wind field. This potentially will lead to better forecasting of not only track and intensity, but also of the appropriate sizes for the watch and warning zones for landfalling storms, which have enormous cost impacts for the affected areas. Further development and eventual dissemination of the idealized modeling system will benefit the research community.

提案的智力内容：对热带气旋的规模和强度的准确预测仍然是现代气象学中的杰出挑战之一。 在这个项目中，将共同使用两个不同但互补的工具，以了解哪些过程控制了哪些过程，并调节了热带气旋风场的水平和垂直结构。这些工具将是：1）使用天气研究和预测模型（WRF）的高分辨率模拟，已修改以支持高度理想化和受控环境中的热带气旋模拟，以及2）一种线性但复杂的非对称和对称涡流的线性模型，该模型已开发出来，该模型已开发出来，该模型已开发并使用了六年的pi（PI），并在上一年（pi）进行了三年，并且是三个年级的范围（PI），并在三年中进行了三年的研究。仿真（3DVPA）。自1980年代克里·伊曼纽尔（Kerry Emanuel）关于成熟飓风垂直结构理论的开创性工作以来，很少关注垂直结构在控制当前强度和未来强度变化中所扮演的角色。 PI将使用WRF模型模拟具有多种垂直和水平结构的旋风，嵌入具有控制平均流量和平均剪切速度的环境中。 3DVPA将用于评估这些结构变化对未来强化的影响，并分析对流不对称（例如螺旋带）在改变对称风场的垂直和水平结构中的作用。两种研究方法的结果将得到比较和验证，并与飓风风场的雷达观察结果进行比较，从NOAA/HRD获得以及雨带强度实验（Rainex）。该提案的更广泛的影响：这项工作的更广泛影响是增加对飓风风场大小和结构的演变的理解。这可能会导致更好地预测轨道和强度，而且还可以预测降落区的适当尺寸，并警告登陆风暴，这对受影响的地区产生了巨大的成本影响。理想化的建模系统的进一步发展和最终传播将使研究社区受益。