The Horizontal and Vertical Structure of Tropical Cyclones: Theory, Observations, and Idealized Modeling

建议的智力内容：准确预测热带气旋的大小和强度仍然是现代气象学中的突出挑战之一。在这个项目中，两个不同但互补的工具将一起使用，以了解什么过程控制和调制热带气旋风场的水平和垂直结构。这些工具将是：1)使用天气研究和预报模式(WRF)的一个版本进行高分辨率模拟，该模式经过修改以支持在高度理想化和受控环境中的热带气旋模拟；以及2)由首席调查员(PI)在过去六年中开发和使用的非对称和对称涡旋动力学的线性但复杂的模式，称为三维涡旋扰动分析和模拟(3DVPAS)。自从20世纪80年代凯里·伊曼纽尔提出成熟飓风的垂直结构理论以来，很少有人注意到垂直结构在控制当前强度和未来强度变化中所起的作用。PI将使用WRF模型来模拟具有各种垂直和水平结构的气旋，嵌入在平均流动和平均剪切速度受控制的环境中。3DVPAS将被用来评估这些结构变化对未来加强的影响，并分析对流不对称(如螺旋带)在改变对称风场的垂直和水平结构中的作用。这两种研究方法的结果将与从NOAA/HRD和雨带强度实验(RAINEX)获得的飓风风场的雷达观测进行比较和验证。提议的更广泛的影响：这项工作的更广泛的影响将是增加对飓风风场大小和结构演变的了解。这不仅可能导致对路径和强度的更好预测，而且还将导致对登陆风暴的监视和警戒区的适当大小的预测，这对受影响地区造成巨大的成本影响。理想化建模系统的进一步开发和最终传播将使研究界受益。

Intellectual content of the proposal: The accurate prediction of the size and intensity of tropical cyclones remains one of the prominent challenges in modern meteorology. In this project, two distinct but complementary tools will be used together to understand what processes control and modulate both the horizontal and vertical structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. These tools will be: 1) high-resolution simulations using a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) which has been modified to support tropical cyclone simulations in highly idealized and controlled environments, and 2) a linear but sophisticated model of asymmetric and symmetric vortex dynamics that has been developed and used by the Principal Investigator (PI) over the last six years, known as Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analysis and Simulation (3DVPAS). Since pioneering work of Kerry Emanuel in the 1980s on the theory of the vertical structure of a mature hurricane, little attention has been paid to the role that vertical structure plays in controlling current intensity and future intensity changes. The PI will use the WRF model to simulate cyclones with a variety of vertical and horizontal structures, embedded in environments with controlled mean flow and mean shear speeds. 3DVPAS will be used to assess the implications of these structure changes for future intensification, and to analyze the roles of convective asymmetries (such as spiral bands) in changing the vertical and horizontal structure of the symmetric wind field. Results from both methods of study will be compared and validated against radar observations of the hurricane wind field, obtained from NOAA/HRD and during the Rainband Intensity Experiment (RAINEX). Broader impacts of the proposal: The broader impacts of this work will be to increase understanding of the evolution of the size and structure of the hurricane wind field. This potentially will lead to better forecasting of not only track and intensity, but also of the appropriate sizes for the watch and warning zones for landfalling storms, which have enormous cost impacts for the affected areas. Further development and eventual dissemination of the idealized modeling system will benefit the research community.