Strengthening the Micro-Foundations of Price Adjustment in New Keynsian Macroeconomic Models

强化新凯恩斯宏观经济模型中价格调整的微观基础

• 批准号: 0648545
• 负责人: John Leahy
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-01-15 至 2011-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0648545&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Strengthening; Micro; Foundations; Price; Adjustment

Understanding price adjustment is central for understanding how monetary policy interacts with the business cycle. The primary goal of the project is to develop a framework that allows for the analysis aggregate output and inflation dynamics in a setting that is consistent with the microeconomic evidence on price adjustment. The first challenge is to simultaneously explain both the vast heterogeneity in price dynamics at the microeconomic level and the seeming sluggishness in the response of the aggregate price level. The second challenge is to develop a model in which firms are allowed to adjust their prices whenever they want, and not to assume sluggishness at the microeconomic level by assuming that prices are changed only at given points of time. To this end, the project develops a simple structural model of inflation and output dynamics that is both analytically tractable and endogenizes pricing decisions. At the microeconomic level, firms face idiosyncratic shocks and fixed costs of adjusting prices. The research cuts through the usual difficulties in solving and aggregating such models by placing restrictions on the distribution of idiosyncratic shocks and also by focusing on a local approximation around a zero-inflation steady state. The resulting Phillips curve is similar in form to the standard New Keynesian Phillips curve expect up to a parameter that reflects the fact that when firms are free to adjust their prices when they want, the firms that adjust their prices tend to be the firms with the most to gain. With the inclusion of idiosyncratic shocks, the model is able to match microeconomic data on the size and frequency of price adjustment. For a given frequency of price adjustment, the model illustrates how allowing prices to adjust endogenously introduces greater nominal flexibility than a corresponding time-dependent framework. The analytic simplicity of the model, however, allows the introduction of complex general equilibrium interactions that have been found to enhance the effects of monetary policy. The research shows that with the introduction of these interactions, the model is capable generating considerable nominal stickiness in the aggregate price level and therefore substantial effects of money on output, all the while maintaining its ability to match the microeconomic evidence on price adjustment. The project proceeds to refine the framework to better match and explain additional features of the data. The equilibrium interactions that help the model explain aggregate price stickiness lead to higher than credible volatility in firm's sales. The project shows how the introduction of demand shocks can better match the evidence in this dimension. The baseline model also has difficulty generating inflation rates that are as persistent as those observed in the data. The project explores extensions of the baseline model that help it to account well for inflation dynamics. Markdowns appear different than other price changes, leading many researchers to analyze data that excludes temporary price cuts. A project element makes clear when this practice is justified and when it is not.

理解价格调整对于理解货币政策如何与商业周期相互作用至关重要。该项目的主要目标是制定一个框架，以便在与关于价格调整的微观经济证据相一致的情况下分析总产出和通货膨胀动态。第一个挑战是同时解释微观经济层面价格动态的巨大异质性和总价格水平的反应似乎迟缓。第二个挑战是开发一种模型，允许企业随时调整价格，而不是假设价格只在给定的时间点变化，从而在微观经济层面上假设价格低迷。为此，该项目开发了一个简单的通胀和产出动态结构模型，该模型在分析上是容易处理的，并使定价决策内生。在微观经济层面，企业面临着特殊的冲击和调整价格的固定成本。这项研究通过对特殊冲击的分布施加限制，并专注于零通胀稳态附近的局部近似，克服了求解和聚合此类模型的通常困难。由此产生的菲利普斯曲线在形式上类似于标准的新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线，预计最高可达一个参数，该参数反映了这样一个事实，即当公司可以在他们想要的时候自由调整价格时，调整价格的公司往往是收益最大的公司。由于计入了特殊冲击，该模型能够在价格调整的规模和频率方面匹配微观经济数据。对于给定的价格调整频率，该模型说明了允许价格内生调整比相应的时间依赖框架带来更大的名义灵活性。然而，该模型的分析简单性允许引入复杂的一般均衡相互作用，这些相互作用已被发现可以增强货币政策的效果。研究表明，随着这些相互作用的引入，该模型能够在总价格水平上产生相当大的名义粘性，从而产生货币对产出的实质性影响，同时保持其与价格调整的微观经济证据相匹配的能力。该项目继续完善框架，以便更好地匹配和解释数据的其他特点。有助于模型解释总价格粘性的均衡交互作用导致公司销售的波动性高于可信的波动率。该项目表明，引入需求冲击可以更好地匹配这一方面的证据。基准模型也很难产生与数据中观察到的通胀率一样持久的通胀率。该项目探索了基线模型的扩展，以帮助其很好地解释通胀动态。降价似乎不同于其他价格变化，导致许多研究人员分析不包括临时降价的数据。项目元素清楚地说明了这种做法何时合理，何时不合理。