Modeling farm level structural change in a dynamic competitive environment

在动态竞争环境中对农场层面的结构变化进行建模

• 批准号: 183319919
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Oliver Mußhoff
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2009-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/183319919?language=en
• 关键词: Modeling; farm; level; structural; change

Agrarian structures are considered to be an important factor for the competitiveness of farming. Therefore, on the one hand, agricultural economists have been concerned for a long time with describing, analyzing and modeling structural change in agriculture. On the other hand, high political attention is devoted to the competitiveness of agricultural production and the income situation of farms; however, to adequately forecast structural change in agriculture in general and to analyze the effects of different political schemes in particular, a fundamental understanding of farm-level structural change, i.e., investment and disinvestment decisions of farmers, is necessary. In this subproject we develop a model in which uncertainty, dynamics and irreversibility inherent in many decision-making situations, together with the bounded rationality of decision-makers, can be taken into account. Another important issue deals with competition, i.e., interactions between different agents. The model will be developed using results from the first project phase. Finally, the results could be an important preliminary work for an improved assessment of the effects of different political schemes. Besides the methodical objective of this subproject, the improved investment and disinvestment model will be applied exemplarily to the dairy sector which shows a high (and further increasing) intensity of competition.

农业结构被认为是农业竞争力的一个重要因素。因此，一方面，农业经济学家长期以来一直关注农业结构变化的描述、分析和建模。另一方面，农业生产的竞争力和农场的收入状况在政治上受到高度关注;然而，为了充分预测一般农业的结构变化，特别是分析不同政治计划的影响，必须对农场一级的结构变化有一个基本的理解，即，农民的投资和撤资决定是必要的。在这个子项目中，我们开发了一个模型，其中的不确定性，动态性和不可逆性固有的许多决策的情况下，连同决策者的有限理性，可以考虑。另一个重要问题涉及竞争，即，不同代理人之间的互动。该模型将利用项目第一阶段的成果加以开发。最后，研究结果可以作为一项重要的初步工作，用于更好地评估不同政治计划的影响。除了这个子项目的系统目标之外，改进的投资和撤资模型将被示范性地应用于竞争强度很高（并进一步增加）的乳制品行业。