An experimental analysis of the disposition effect in farmer’s selling behaviour

农户销售行为处置效应的实验分析

• 批准号: 400920441
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Oliver Mußhoff
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/400920441?language=en
• 关键词: experimental; analysis; disposition; effect; farmer

Decisions regarding large-scale economic consequences have to be often met under uncertainty. In the agricultural context, the decision of economic time of sales is an example for a decision of this kind. While the influence of economic aspects regarding the optimal time of sale has already been discussed in literature, the analysis of non-monetary influence factors has only been discussed briefly. First remarks for the relevance of behaviour economic aspects can be derived from the finance sector. In this sector the disposition effect has been identified in the behaviour of investors as a robust, cognitive distortion, which can bring strong negative financial consequences with it. This effect has not been examined in detail in the agricultural sector so far. Furthermore, it is not yet known which determinants cause and influence the extent of the disposition effect. These research gaps are to be examined in this project. An economic experiment will be conducted with farmers, where farmers will sell stored harvest products. Their marketing decisions will be examined as regards of the disposition effects existence.The following questions have to be asked to concretise the aims of the project: 1. Is the marketing behaviour influenced by a disposition effect?2. How can the extent of the disposition effect be explained? Do the following play a role: a) Loss aversion, b) emotions such as regret and pride and/or c) socio-demographic & operational variables?3. Can the extent of the disposition effect be reduced by means of nudging? As a result of the project, key insights into farmer’s decision behaviour are generated, allowing the agricultural stakeholders recommended action is their aim in order to improve their income. Furthermore, the results regarding these measures/actions, which influence the disposition effect, are to be used for political impact assessment.

关于大规模经济后果的决定往往必须在不确定的情况下作出。在农业背景下，经济销售时间的决策就是这类决策的一个例子。虽然经济方面对最佳销售时间的影响已经在文献中进行了讨论，但对非货币影响因素的分析仅进行了简要讨论。首先，行为经济方面的相关性可以从金融部门得到说明。在这个领域，处置效应在投资者的行为中被认为是一种强大的认知扭曲，它会带来强烈的负面财务后果。到目前为止，这种影响尚未在农业部门得到详细研究。此外，尚不清楚哪些决定因素导致并影响处置效应的程度。这些研究空白将在本项目中进行检查。将与农民一起进行经济实验，农民将出售储存的收获产品。他们的营销决策将根据处置效应的存在进行审查。为了使项目的目标具体化，必须提出以下问题：营销行为是否受到处置效应的影响？处置效应的程度如何解释？以下因素是否起作用：a)损失厌恶，b)后悔和骄傲等情绪和/或c)社会人口统计学和操作变量？倾向效应的程度可以通过轻推的方式来降低吗？该项目的结果是，对农民的决策行为产生了关键的见解，使农业利益相关者的建议行动成为他们的目标，以提高他们的收入。此外，这些影响处置效果的措施/行动的结果将用于政治影响评估。