An experimental analysis of the disposition effect in farmer’s selling behaviour

关于大规模经济后果的决定往往是在不确定的情况下做出的。在农业背景下，经济销售时间的决策就是这类决策的一个例子。虽然经济因素对最佳销售时间的影响已经在文献中进行了讨论，但对非货币影响因素的分析只进行了简要的讨论。首先，可以从金融部门得出有关行为经济方面相关性的评论。在这一领域，处置效应在投资者的行为中被认为是一种稳健的认知扭曲，可能带来强烈的负面财务后果。到目前为止，农业部门还没有对这种影响进行详细研究。此外，目前还不清楚哪些决定因素会引起和影响处置效应的程度。这些研究差距将在这个项目中得到检验。将在农民中进行经济试验，农民将出售储存的收获产品。他们的营销决策将根据处置效应的存在进行审查。为了使项目目标具体化，必须问以下问题：1.处置效应是否影响营销行为？2.如何解释处置效应的程度？以下因素是否发挥了作用：a)损失厌恶，b)后悔和骄傲等情绪，和/或c)社会人口统计和操作变量？3.倾向效应的程度可以通过轻推的方式来降低吗？该项目的结果是，产生了对农民决策行为的关键见解，允许农业利益攸关方采取建议行动是他们提高收入的目标。此外，影响处置效果的这些措施/行动的结果将用于政治影响评估。

Decisions regarding large-scale economic consequences have to be often met under uncertainty. In the agricultural context, the decision of economic time of sales is an example for a decision of this kind. While the influence of economic aspects regarding the optimal time of sale has already been discussed in literature, the analysis of non-monetary influence factors has only been discussed briefly. First remarks for the relevance of behaviour economic aspects can be derived from the finance sector. In this sector the disposition effect has been identified in the behaviour of investors as a robust, cognitive distortion, which can bring strong negative financial consequences with it. This effect has not been examined in detail in the agricultural sector so far. Furthermore, it is not yet known which determinants cause and influence the extent of the disposition effect. These research gaps are to be examined in this project. An economic experiment will be conducted with farmers, where farmers will sell stored harvest products. Their marketing decisions will be examined as regards of the disposition effects existence.The following questions have to be asked to concretise the aims of the project: 1. Is the marketing behaviour influenced by a disposition effect?2. How can the extent of the disposition effect be explained? Do the following play a role: a) Loss aversion, b) emotions such as regret and pride and/or c) socio-demographic & operational variables?3. Can the extent of the disposition effect be reduced by means of nudging? As a result of the project, key insights into farmer’s decision behaviour are generated, allowing the agricultural stakeholders recommended action is their aim in order to improve their income. Furthermore, the results regarding these measures/actions, which influence the disposition effect, are to be used for political impact assessment.