The role of credit scoring models, weather index-based insurance, and asymmetric information in agricultural microfinance

许多研究表明，以现金流分析为基础的小额融资办法对信贷申请者的信贷违约风险的评估既耗时又费钱。相比之下，信用评分模型需要自动识别信用违约风险，可能会降低(农业)小额信贷的成本。此外，将天气变量纳入特定于农业的评分模型似乎是一种很有前途的方法，可以特别为这类客户设计信用评分模型。事实上，近年来被广泛讨论的基于天气指数的保险可以降低农业小额信贷与天气相关的相对较高的信用违约风险。最后，小额信贷的另一个重要问题仍然是防止信息不对称。然而，信息不对称对信用违约的影响从来没有被直接研究过。考虑到目前关于信用评分模型、基于指数的保险和农业小额信贷中信息不对称的研究很少，本项目追求以下目标：1.评估信用评分模型(包括天气风险)在农业小额信贷中的潜力。分析天气变量对农业小额信贷中信贷发放和信用违约风险的影响，以及天气指数保险的相关风险降低潜力。衡量信息不对称对信用违约的影响因此，该研究项目为农业企业小额信贷的进一步发展提供了重要的发现，尤其是为发展中国家农村地区迄今发展不佳的金融系统提供了重要的发现。

Many studies have shown that the microfinance approach based on cash-flow analyses is a time-consuming and thus cost-intensive assessment of the credit default risks of credit applicants. In contrast, credit scoring models, which entail automated identification of credit default risks, may reduce the costs of (agricultural) microfinance. In addition, the inclusion of weather variables into an agriculture-specific scoring model seems like a promising approach to devise credit scoring models for this clientele in particular. Indeed, weather index-based insurance, which has been intensively discussed in recent years, can diminish the comparably high weather-related credit default risk of agricultural microfinance. Lastly, another important issue in microfinance remains the prevention of asymmetric information. Yet, the effect of asymmetric information on credit default has never been investigated directly.Bearing in mind that there exist only few studies on credit scoring models, index-based insurance and asymmetric information in agricultural microfinance, the project pursues the following objectives:1. Evaluating the potential of credit scoring models (including weather risks) in agricultural microfinance2. Analyzing the influence of weather variables on credit granting and credit default risk in agricultural microfinance, as well as the related risk-reducing potential of weather index-based insurance3. Measuring the effect of asymmetric information on credit defaultThus, the research project provides important findings for the further development of microcredit for agricultural enterprises, and more particularly for the so far poor development of the financial system in the rural areas of developing countries.