Empirical and experimental analysis of land rental rates and farmland prices

我们将继续并扩展SP1以前的工作。这个分项目的总目标是从经验和实验上分析租金和农田价格。该子项目包括四个工作包，工作包1将在时空维度上扩展萨克森州县级租金价格比的研究。研究农地租价比的完全分配问题。因此，农业普查的农场一级数据（包括地租）和土地评估专家委员会收集的土地价格数据在空间网格上合并。使用位置、形状和规模的地理可加性广义模型来模拟当地农业结构对租金价格比分布均值和规模的影响。空间依赖性由结构化的高斯马尔可夫随机场项和非结构化的空间随机效应项建模。在第二个工作包中，我们将运行一个离散选择实验，以调查农民购买而不是租赁农田的偏好。模型估计中包含的协变量包括农场-田间距离或田间大小等。从政策的角度来看，我们将研究限制性更强的土地管理法以及对投入品使用的额外限制对农民购买和租赁农田的意愿的影响。此外，我们将开发一个真实的期权方法基准，并测试该理论是否能够解释实验观察到的租赁和购买决策比净现值模型更好。第三个工作包将与次级方案2联合开展，建立一个理论框架，调查农民在农业土地市场上的投资行为。具体来说，我们的目标是应用真实的期权理论，解开农地市场的供应动态，通过推导触发价格，启动农场的决定出售农田。调查农用土地的供应情况特别重要，因为它可被视为说明农用土地市场流动性的一个指标。在此过程中，我们仔细研究了流动性对农业土地市场有效运作的作用。最后，我们与SP2合作，旨在了解租户和土地所有者对土地租金价格的议价能力。这里的目的是研究价格差额的谈判过程，这是由于租户的支付意愿和土地所有者的接受意愿之间的差距，这可能会出现在薄的市场。为此，将采用博弈论模型，这些模型能够捕捉讨价还价过程的基本逻辑。对谈判过程的理论建模和实证分析将有助于理解农地市场上的市场力量。

We will continue and extend on the previous work of SP1. The general objective of this subproject is to empirically and experimentally analyse rental rates and farmland prices. The subproject comprises of four work packages.In work package 1 we will expand the study on the rent-price ratio on the county level in Lower Saxony in the spatio-temporal dimension. We study the full distribution of the rent-price ratio of agricultural land. Therefore, farm level data from the agricultural census (including land rents) and land price data gathered by expert committees for land evaluation are merged on a spatial grid. A geo-additive generalised model for location, shape and scale is used to model the effects of the local farming structure on both the mean and the scale of the rent-price ratio distribution. Spatial dependencies are modelled by structured Gaussian-Markov-Random-Field-terms and unstructured spatial random effect terms. In a second work package, we will run a Discrete Choice Experiment to investigate farmers’ preferences for buying instead of renting farmland. Covariates that will be included in the model estimation encompass, for example, the farm-field-distance or the field size. From a policy perspective, we will investigate the impact of a more restrictive Land Regulation Act, as well as additional restrictions regarding the use of inputs on farmers’ willingness to pay for buying and renting farmland. Furthermore, we will develop a real options approach benchmark and test if the theory is able to explain experimentally observed renting and buying decisions better than the net present value model. The third work package, which will be jointly carried out with SP2, sets up a theoretical framework to investigate farmer’s (dis)investment behaviour on agricultural land markets. Specifically, our objective is to apply the real options theory to unravel supply dynamics on agricultural land markets by deriving triggers in prices that initiate a farm’s decision to sell farmland. Investigating the supply of agricultural land is particularly relevant as it can be regarded as an indicator describing the liquidity of agricultural land markets. In doing so, we scrutinise the role of liquidity for agricultural land markets to work efficiently.Finally, in collaboration with SP2, we aim to understand both tenants and landowners bargaining power over land rental prices. The objective here is to examine the bargaining process over a price margin, which results from a gap between tenant’s willingness to pay and landowner’s willingness to accept, which may arise in thin markets. For this purpose, game theory models will be adopted, which are able to capture the underlying logic of bargaining processes. The theoretical modelling and empirical analysis of bargaining processes will contribute to the understanding of market power on agricultural land markets.