Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Politics of Structural Changes in Voter Turnout

政治学博士论文研究：选民投票率结构变化的政治

• 批准号: 0819491
• 负责人: Gary Cox
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-08-01 至 2010-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0819491&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

The question of how voter turnout influences political outcomes is critical for illuminating the meaning and consequence of elections. Despite the obvious positive and normative importance of the issue, central aspects of how turnout affects democratic outcomes remain contested. On one hand, a frequently voiced and plausible argument is that, because the pool of non-voters disproportionately consists of citizens who are poor, working-class, or members of minority groups, political outcomes are likely to reflect the preferences of the relatively advantaged members of society-precisely because they are more likely to show up at the polls. Thus, according to proponents of the "turnout matters" thesis, the candidates and policies of the left, which are presumed to favor the disadvantaged, should benefit when voter turnout is high.Despite the common-sense appeal of this argument, empirical studies of the relationship between turnout and the political fortunes of the left have overwhelmingly failed to support it. Those authors who conclude that "low turnout doesn't matter" have followed one of two main lines of argumentation: (1.) In terms of their stated policy preferences, if not their demographics, non-voting survey respondents look very much like voters (hence low turnout does not favor the right), or, (2.) Turnout rates show very little correlation with the electoral fortunes of the left, measured in terms of the vote share garnered by leftist parties, (hence low turnout does not favor the right).This project uses formal modeling and both quantitative and qualitative data to addresses the points of contention in the debate-in the specific context of large changes in turnout precipitated by changes in the law. Two instances of structural change in particular are examined: (1.) recent legal changes to election day registration requirements in a number of U.S. states that have increased a vote's "portability" across electoral districts and (2.) the U.S. Voting Rights Act of 1965 which removed structural impediments to voting by, among other things, removing literacy tests and poll taxes. These two cases form the basis for empirical tests of the competing claims made in the literature and some novel propositions advanced in the present work.By analyzing the repercussions of specific structural changes in turnout, this research will contribute to our understanding of the contentious and important issue of turnout's political implications. This is a topic of broad concern to citizens as well as policymakers who design or reform political institutions.

选民投票率如何影响政治结果的问题对于阐明选举的意义和后果至关重要。尽管这个问题具有明显的积极和规范的重要性，但投票率如何影响民主结果的核心方面仍然存在争议。一方面，一种经常被提及的貌似合理的论点是，由于不投票的人群不成比例地由穷人、工人阶级或少数群体组成，政治结果很可能反映出相对有利的社会成员的偏好——正是因为他们更有可能出现在投票站。因此，根据“投票率很重要”理论的支持者，当选民投票率高时，被认为有利于弱势群体的左翼候选人和政策应该受益。尽管这一观点具有常识性的吸引力，但对投票率与左翼政治命运之间关系的实证研究绝大多数都未能支持这一观点。那些得出“低投票率无关紧要”结论的作者遵循了两种主要论点之一：(1)就他们所陈述的政策偏好而言，如果不是他们的人口统计数据，不投票的调查受访者看起来非常像选民（因此低投票率不利于右翼），或者(2)。以左翼政党获得的选票份额来衡量，投票率与左翼的选举命运几乎没有关联（因此投票率低不利于右翼）。该项目使用正式建模以及定量和定性数据来解决辩论中的争论点——在法律变化导致投票率大幅变化的具体背景下。本文特别研究了两个结构性变化的例子：(1)最近在美国一些州对选举日登记要求进行了法律修改，增加了投票在各选区的“可移植性”；(2)1965年美国投票权法案，除其他外，通过取消识字测试和人头税，消除了投票的结构性障碍。这两个案例构成了对文献中提出的竞争性主张和本工作中提出的一些新命题进行实证检验的基础。通过分析具体结构变化对投票率的影响，本研究将有助于我们理解投票率的政治含义这一有争议的重要问题。这是公民以及设计或改革政治制度的决策者广泛关注的话题。