Collaborative Research: Strategic Redistricting and Its Political Consequences

这项合作研究旨在了解重新划分选区对立法选举的影响。 标准观点认为，选区重新划分对选举的影响微乎其微。对党派利益产生微小变化，或者在保护现任者方面几乎没有采取任何行动。 尽管对这个问题进行了大量研究，但研究人员认为，之前的工作对影响的建模不正确。 使用战略性选区重新划分的正式模型，PI 表明，从州立法者到州法官等各种行为者对如何划分重新划分界限具有重要影响。 虽然这是众所周知的，但它们也表明了它们的战略行为将对党派利益和现有优势产生影响的条件。 研究人员通过检查 20 世纪 60 年代发生的一系列选区重新划分变化来测试他们模型的关键特征。 这是美国政治的关键时期，通常与现任优势的崛起联系在一起。 研究人员发现，选区重新划分是改变党派优势和保护现任者的重要战略工具。

This collaborative research is concerned with understanding the impact of redistricting on legislative elections. The standard wisdom holds that redistricting has only a minimal effect on elections; producing tiny changes in partisan gain or doing little to protect incumbents. While a great deal of research has been undertaken on this problem, the researchers argue that previous work has improperly modeled the effects. Using a formal model of strategic redistricting, the PIs show that a variety of actors, ranging from state legislators to state judges have important effects on how redistricting lines are drawn. While this is well known, they also show the conditions under when their strategic behavior will have an impact on partisan gains and incumbent advantage. The researchers test crucial features of their model by examining the array of redistricting changes that occurred in the 1960's. This was a key period in American politics and has often been associated with the rise of an incumbency advantage. The researchers find that redistricting is an important strategic tool to change partisan advantage and to protect incumbents.