Collaborative Research: Predictability of the Physical Climate System

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。海洋-陆地-大气研究中心（COLA）的研究将继续扩大对气候变化中的季节至年际可预测性的调查，重点是当前气候的可实现可预测性，包括全球变化——不断变化的温室气体浓度、气溶胶和土地利用——对海洋-大气-陆地相互作用的冰冻圈系统的影响。以信息论为基础的综合可预测性框架将进一步发展，以了解初始状态、高频和低频大气瞬变、气候系统成分耦合和全球变化对可预测性的贡献。将具体讨论陆地表面的作用及其与大气和海洋的耦合，厄尔尼诺Niño和南方涛动（ENSO）及其响应的可预测性，大西洋和印度洋的内在与外部强迫变化，全球水文循环，季风和北美干旱，以及天气和极端气候统计的可预测性。工作范围将扩大到调查年代际变化的可预测性，以确定(1)ENSO或一般季节性异常的概率分布的变化是否可以在年代际提前期预测，(2)年代际可预测性的极限，以及(3)全球变化的影响。自然变率模态的可预测性如何随全球变化而变化，这一问题与提供关于未来气候的区域特定信息特别相关，并严重依赖于气候模式的模拟能力。长期目标将是帮助建立动态年代际气候预测的科学基础。这项工作将采用由美国国家科学基金会、美国国家海洋和大气管理局和美国国家航空航天局支持的国家气候模型，包括社区气候系统模型（CCSM）、气候预报系统（CFS）、戈达德地球观测系统（GEOS）模型和GFDL模型，努力确定各个模型的优缺点，并将它们（先验和后验）最佳地结合起来。在这些全球模式中获得更高分辨率的前景至关重要。该研究还将包括与CMMAP合作，针对气候预测过程解析模型的初步努力，这既是为了可预测性/预测研究的目的，也是为了评估全球气候模型中解析云与参数化云的效果。将审查模式缺陷如何限制量化可预测性和实现熟练的气候预测的能力。将最大限度地利用每个模型的个人优势和独特性，包括其在国家气候建模议程中的位置，并将向每个建模小组提供科学和操作层面的反馈。更广泛的影响虽然COLA的主要重点是基础研究，但它作为国家中心的建立，其战略合作伙伴关系和开放政策使COLA成为国家资源。美国国家科学基金会支持大气科学战略指导委员会（2007年）发现，COLA在了解气候可预测性、在气候研究中提供国家领导地位和提供信息技术基础设施方面的努力，对美国实现全球气候变率和变化的多机构目标以及更好的气候预测服务做出了重要贡献。通过出版物、教育、研讨会和讲习班、咨询和审查小组以及软件和信息服务，COLA活动具有比基础研究更广泛的影响，在几个关键领域发挥作用；包括：o对政府间气候变化项目第四次评估报告的贡献；通过与乔治梅森大学的战略合作伙伴关系的博士项目以及高中实习项目培养下一代气候科学家；华盛顿特区科学家和学生参加的杰出科学讲座项目；以及COLA-CPC联合举办的“气候试验台（CPC）系列研讨会”；作为世界气候研究计划（WCRP）、美国国家科学基金会（NSF）、AGU、美国气候变率和可预测性计划（CLIIVAR）、全球能源和水循环实验（GEWEX）、NOAA应用研究中心（ARCs）和气候试验台（CTB）、CCSM的国家和国际小组的积极成员和领导，美国国家科学基金会STC大气过程多尺度模拟（CMMAP），国际理论物理中心（ICTP）和国家TeraGrido分发天气和气候软件和信息，包括梯度和GDS -免费，开源软件，完全由COLA （www.iges.org/grads/grads.html）支持。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Research by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) will continue andexpand the investigation of seasonal-to-interannual predictability in a changing climate, focusing on realizable predictability of the current climate, including the influence of global change - changing greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosols and land use - on the interactive ocean-atmosphere-landcryosphere system. A comprehensive predictability framework, grounded in information theory, will be further developed to understand the contributions to predictability from the initial state, the high and low frequency atmospheric transients, the coupling of climate system components, and global change. The role of the land surface and its couplings to the atmosphere and oceans, the predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ENSO response, intrinsic vs. externally-forced variations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, the global hydrologic cycle, monsoons and North American drought, and the predictability of the statistics of weather and climate extremes will be specifically addressed.The scope of work will be extended to investigate the predictability of decadal variations to determine (1) whether or not shifts in the probability distribution of ENSO, or of seasonal anomalies in general, are predictable at decadal lead times, (2) the limits of decadal predictability, and (3) the effects of global change. The question of how the predictability of the natural modes of variability may change in conjunction with the global change is particularly relevant for providing regionally specific informationon future climate and depends critically on the simulation capabilities of climate models. The long-term goal will be to help establish the scientific foundations for dynamic decadal climate prediction.This work will employ the national climate models supported by NSF, NOAA, and NASA, including the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and the GFDL models, with efforts to identify the strengths and weaknesses of individual models and to optimally combine them (both a priori and a posteriori). The prospect of much higher resolutions in these global models is of critical importance. The research will also include initial efforts directed toward process-resolving models for climate prediction incollaboration with CMMAP, both for the purposes of predictability/prediction studies and to evaluate the efficacy of resolved vs. parameterized clouds in global climate models. The ways in which model deficiencies are limiting the ability to both quantify predictability and realize skillful climate predictions will be examined. Maximum advantage will be taken of each model's individual strengths and uniqueness, including its niche in the nation's climate modeling agenda, and feedback at scientific andoperational levels will be provided to each of the modeling groups.BROADER IMPACTWhile COLA's primary focus is basic research, its establishment as a national center, its strategic partnerships and its open policies make COLA a national resource. The Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences (2007) found that COLA's efforts to understand climate predictability, to provide national leadership in climate research, and to provide information technology infrastructure are important contributors to the nation's multi-agency goals for global climate variabilityand change and better climate forecast services. COLA activities have broader impacts beyond basic Research via publications, education, seminars and workshops, advisory and review panels, and software and information services making a difference in several key areas, including:o Contributions to the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Reporto Educating the next generation of climate scientists through a PhD program in strategic partnership with George Mason University as well as a high school internship programo The distinguished scientific lectures program that is well attended by Washington, DC-area scientists and students, and the joint COLA-CPC "Climate Test Bed (CPC) Seminar Series"o On-site and external workshops, including workshops organized for the Sloan Foundation and the International Centre for Theoretical Physics and the May 2008 World Modeling Summit for Climate Predictiono Active membership and leadership of national and international panels of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), NSF, AGU, US CLImate VARiability and predictability program (CLIIVAR), the Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX), NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and Climate Test Bed (CTB), the CCSM, the NSF STC Multi Scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP), that International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), and the national TeraGrido Distributing weather and climate software and information, including GrADS and GDS - free, open-source software that is fully supported by COLA (www.iges.org/grads/grads.html)