Predictability of the Monthly and Seasonal Average Circulation of the Atmosphere

PI将进行建模和诊断研究，以调查月和季节平均大气环流的年际变化和可预测性。长期目标是研究海气陆耦合系统的可预报性。为了实现这一目标，战略是利用现实的模型的各个组成部分（大气，海洋和陆地表面的过程）进行敏感性和可预测性研究，首先审查的可预测性的每个组成部分分别，并最终审查的可预测性的耦合互动系统。PI和他的团队将继续他们正在进行的关于时空平均大气环流可预测性的研究，以建立物理基础，并证明动态扩展范围预报的可行性。为了实现上述目标，PI将继续改进由NMC导出的大气环流模式，以便进一步提高其模拟年循环和年际变化（包括时空波动）的能力。他还将使用这个模型结合地球表面的真实的条件来研究区域空间平均大气环流的可预测性。这项研究很重要，因为它将为改进业务天气和气候预测模型提供一个易于应用的基础。

The PI will carry out modeling and diagnostic studies to investigate the interannual variability and predictability of the monthly and seasonal average circulation of the atmosphere. The long term goal is to investigate the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. To accomplish this objective, the strategy is to utilize realistic models of the individual components (atmosphere, ocean, and land surface processes) to carry out sensitivity and predictability studies first to examine the predictability of each component separately, and ultimately to examine the predictability of the coupled interactive system. The PI and his group will continue their ongoing research on the predictability of space-time averaged atmospheric circulation to establish a physical basis for, and demonstrate and the feasibility of dynamic extended range forecasting. To accomplish the above objective the PI will continue to improve the NMC-derived atmospheric general circulation model so that its ability to simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability including space-time fluctuations is further improved. He will also use this model in conjunction with real conditions at the earth's surface to investigate the predictability of the regional space-to,e averaged circulation of the atmosphere. This research is important because it will provide a readily applied basis for improvements in operational weather and climate prediction models.