Predictability of the Monthly and Seasonal Average Circulation of the Atmosphere

大气指数将进行模拟和诊断研究，以调查大气月平均环流和季节平均环流的年际变化和可预测性。长期目标是调查海洋-大气-陆地耦合系统的可预测性。为了实现这一目标，战略是利用单个组成部分(大气、海洋和陆地表面过程)的现实模式来进行敏感性和可预测性研究，首先分别检查每个组成部分的可预测性，最后检查耦合相互作用系统的可预测性。PI和他的团队将继续进行时空平均大气环流可预报性的研究，以建立动态扩展范围预报的物理基础，并论证其可行性。为了实现上述目标，PI将继续改进NMC的大气环流模式，以进一步提高其模拟包括时空波动在内的年周期和年际变化的能力。他还将结合地球表面的实际情况使用该模型来研究区域大气平均空间环流的可预测性。这项研究很重要，因为它将为改进运行中的天气和气候预测模型提供一个容易应用的基础。

The PI will carry out modeling and diagnostic studies to investigate the interannual variability and predictability of the monthly and seasonal average circulation of the atmosphere. The long term goal is to investigate the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. To accomplish this objective, the strategy is to utilize realistic models of the individual components (atmosphere, ocean, and land surface processes) to carry out sensitivity and predictability studies first to examine the predictability of each component separately, and ultimately to examine the predictability of the coupled interactive system. The PI and his group will continue their ongoing research on the predictability of space-time averaged atmospheric circulation to establish a physical basis for, and demonstrate and the feasibility of dynamic extended range forecasting. To accomplish the above objective the PI will continue to improve the NMC-derived atmospheric general circulation model so that its ability to simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability including space-time fluctuations is further improved. He will also use this model in conjunction with real conditions at the earth's surface to investigate the predictability of the regional space-to,e averaged circulation of the atmosphere. This research is important because it will provide a readily applied basis for improvements in operational weather and climate prediction models.