Predictability and Variability of the Present Climate

当前气候的可预测性和变化性

• 批准号: 9910853
• 负责人: Jagadish Shukla
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: George Mason University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-10-01 至 2005-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9910853&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Predictability; Variability; Present; Climate

AbstractATM-9910853Shukla, JagadishGeorge Mason UniversityTitle: Predictability and Variability of the Present ClimateThe main objective of this grant research is to establish a scientific basis for, and to advance our understanding of the variability and predictability of the present climate using comprehensive and realistic models of the climate system. The primary emphasis is to simulate, understand and demonstrate the predictability of seasonal-to-interannual climate variations using coupled models of the atmosphere, ocean and land system. Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual variability requires modeling and understanding variability on interdecadal time scales; therefore, the PIs will investigate some aspects of the decadal variability and predictability of climate.

本研究的主要目的是建立一个科学的基础，并利用全面和现实的气候系统模型来提高我们对当前气候的可变性和可预测性的理解。主要的重点是利用大气、海洋和陆地系统的耦合模式来模拟、理解和证明季节到年际气候变化的可预测性。理解和预测季节到年际变化需要在年代际时间尺度上建模和理解变化;因此，PI将研究气候的年代际变化和可预测性的某些方面。