Predictability of Monthly and Seasonal Average Circulation of the Atmosphere

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The PI will carry out modeling and diagnostic studies to investigate the interannual variability and predictability of the monthly and seasonal average circulation of the atmosphere. The long term goal is to investigate the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. To accomplish this objective, the strategy is to utilize realistic models of the individual components (atmosphere, ocean, and land surface processes) to carry out sensitivity and predictability studies, first to examine the predictability of each component separately, and ultimately to examine the predictability of the coupled interactive system. The PI and his group will continue their ongoing research on the predictability of space-time averaged atmospheric circulation to establish a physical basis for, and demonstrate the feasibility of dynamic extended range forecasting. To accomplish the above objective the PI will continue to improve the NMC-derived atmospheric general circulation model so that its ability to simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability including space-time fluctuations is further improved. He will also use this model in conjunction with real observed states of the global atmosphere and global boundary conditions at the earth's surface to investigate the predictability of the regional space-time averaged circulation of the atmosphere. This research is important because it will provide a readily applied basis for improvements in operational weather and climate prediction models.