Predictability of Earth's Climate

这个更新项目将利用最先进的全球大气、世界海洋和陆地表面综合模型，致力于了解地球当前气候波动在季节到十年时间尺度上的可预测性。pi将调查季节到年际的可预测性如何随着气候变化而改变。这是对他们正在进行的研究的一个重要补充，也是理解全球气候变化对区域气候影响的一个基本要素，因为与一个地区最相关的全球气候变化的影响将通过自然气候现象发生的变化来体现。pi将通过调查整个气候系统可实现的可预测性来加强他们以前的工作。特别是，它们期望定量地确定在当前气候和正在变化的气候中可以预测哪些季节和区域气候变化。由于气候变化中的区域气候变化在很大程度上是自然变率模式变化的表现，因此这项研究对国家在气候变化科学方面的努力至关重要。更广泛的影响作为全球环境与社会研究所的一部分，cola与整个社会分享其研究工作的成果，并长期致力于为研究和教育界以及全球社会服务。COLA调查实际的气候系统，利用实际的全球观测，并使用与实际的常规气候预测相同的复杂模型进行可预测性研究。因此，COLA研究直接有利于改善社会许多部门的气候预测，包括农业、能源、水资源和人类健康等。对教学、培训和学习的贡献包括让研究生参与研究活动，并在课堂上使用概念和最先进的气候模型来辅助教学。COLA的科学家还通过建立机构合作，为加强研究基础设施作出了贡献；提供分析软件工具，使大量学生和其他研究人员能够直接利用气候数据；并通过印刷和网络传播，通过在美国和国外的公开讲座，以及通过其他媒体渠道，确保其科学成果得到最广泛和最及时的传播。

Intellectual MeritThis renewal project will work towards an understanding of the predictability of Earth's current climate fluctuations on seasonal to decadal time scales using state-of-the-art, comprehensive models of the global atmosphere, world oceans and land surface. The PIs will investigate how seasonal to interannual predictability is altered as climate changes. This is a major addition to their ongoing research and an essential element of understanding the impact of global climate change on regional climate, because the effects of global climate change that are most relevant to a region will be manifested through changes in the occurrence of natural climatic phenomena. The PIs will enhance their previous work by investigating the realizable predictability of the total climate system. In particular, they expect to establish quantitatively what seasonal and regional climate variations can be predicted, in the current climate and in a changing climate. Since regional climate variations in a changing climate are largely manifestations of changes in the natural modes of variability, this research is crucial to the Nation's efforts in climate change science. Broader ImpactsCOLA, as a part of the Institute of Global Environment and Society shares the fruits of itsresearch work with society as a whole, and has a long-standing commitment to serve the research and educational communities as well as the global society. COLA investigates the actual climate system, utilizes actual global observations and uses the same complex models for predictability research that are used for actual, routine climate prediction. Therefore, COLA research is directly beneficial to the improvement of climate forecasts for many sectors of society, including agriculture, energy, water resources, and human health, among others. The contributions to teaching, training and learning include involving graduate students in the research activities and using both conceptual and state-of-the-art climate models in the classroom to aid in teaching. COLA scientists have also contributed to enhancing the infrastructure for research by establishing institutional collaborations; providing analytic software tools to enable a very large number of students and other researchers to make direct use of climate data; and ensuring the broadest and most timely distribution of its scientific results through the print and web-based distribution, through public lectures throughout the U.S. and abroad, and through other media outlets.