The Climate Memory of Tropical Cyclones: Dimensions, Magnitude, Mechanisms for Generation and Removal, and Implications

热带气旋的气候记忆：规模、强度、产生和消除的机制以及影响

• 批准号: 0842618
• 负责人: Robert Hart
• 金额: $ 41.85万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-02-01 至 2013-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0842618&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Climate; Memory; Tropical; Cyclones; Dimensions

This project will comprehensively define the climate footprint ("memory") of a tropical cyclone (TC) in time and space, explaining many fascinating and important aspects of the footprint. Specifically, the investigators will (i) define the temporal and spatial extent of the structure of the TC footprint and its variability, (ii) define the mechanisms for TC footprint generation and removal and the variability of those mechanisms geographically and temporally, (iii) quantify the role of TCs in climate through aggregate energy measures implied by the aggregate footprint, and (iv) compare the TC aggregate energy measures to other climate transport mechanisms, such as the mean meridional circulation and baroclinic activity. The investigators will utilize the varying reanalysis datasets and the new Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) coupled reanalysis to quantify the uncertainty in the footprint magnitude and the driving physical mechanisms, acknowledging the inherent limitations of such datasets.This work will bridge a major gap that exists between our understanding of "weather" (in this case TCs) and climate, when no such gap exists in nature. The assumption has been historically that the large-scale impacts of TCs can be (at best) broadly parameterized in Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and that the large scale climate simulation will not suffer substantially. The research will in detail qualify and quantify this impact and that assumption's validity. The aggregate role of TCs in climate as a whole will be quantified.The broader impacts of this project include an improved understanding of the TC role in climate. The ability to forecast floods, droughts, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is dependent upon the accurate simulation of the upper ocean and atmospheric boundary conditions, and the atmospheric teleconnection patterns that result. The project will shine a light on the overall potential limits of climate predictability as induced by the TC footprint. It will train graduate students and ensure wide dissemination of results and findings in conferences, workshops, seminars, publications, and websites.

该项目将全面定义热带气旋（TC）在时间和空间上的气候足迹（“记忆”），解释足迹的许多迷人和重要方面。具体而言，研究人员将（i）确定TC足迹结构的时间和空间范围及其变异性，（ii）确定TC足迹产生和消除的机制以及这些机制在地理和时间上的变异性，（iii）通过总足迹所隐含的总能量措施量化TC在气候中的作用，以及（iv）将TC总能量措施与其他气候传输机制（如平均纬向环流和斜压活动）进行比较。研究人员将利用不同的再分析数据集和新的气候预报系统再分析和再预报（CFSRR）耦合再分析来量化足迹大小和驱动物理机制的不确定性，承认这些数据集的固有局限性。这项工作将弥合我们对“天气”（在这种情况下TC）和气候之间存在的主要差距，当自然界中不存在这种差距时。历史上的假设是，TC的大尺度影响可以（最好）在全球环流模式（GCM）中广泛参数化，大尺度气候模拟不会受到实质性影响。这项研究将详细限定和量化这种影响和假设的有效性。技术合作在整个气候中的总体作用将得到量化，该项目的更广泛影响包括加深对技术合作在气候中作用的理解。预测洪水、干旱和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件的能力取决于对上层海洋和大气边界条件以及由此产生的大气遥相关模式的准确模拟。该项目将揭示TC足迹引起的气候可预测性的总体潜在限制。它将培训研究生，并确保在会议、讲习班、研讨会、出版物和网站上广泛传播成果和调查结果。