Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Self Confidence in a Principal Agent Relationship

在一个完美的市场中，雇主会提供工资和奖金，为员工提供恰到好处的激励，让他们完成交给他们的任务。但是，如果像广泛记录的那样，员工对自己的能力系统性地过度自信或缺乏自信，那该怎么办？如果是这样的话，雇主也许能够利用这些偏见。例如，雇主可能会给过于自信的员工提供低工资和与出色表现挂钩的高额奖金。过于自信的员工会接受低工资，因为他们（错误地）认为自己很可能得到高额奖金。为了验证这种预测，pi将进行一项实验，首先通过比较每个参与者在能力倾向测试中的分数和每个参与者预测自己会得到的分数来评估参与者的自信心。然后，受试者在计算机实验室中参与模拟就业情况。过度自信或缺乏自信的影响是通过比较参与者的行为来衡量的，当他们的任务成功的概率是由他们的测试分数决定的，当它取决于随机分配的数字。这种设置保持了除了员工自我评估能力之外的所有东西不变。该实验将证实不同的自信水平是否确实与雇主和雇员的不同激励、努力程度和总体利润有关。最终，它将为探索自信与性别等人口因素之间的联系以及性别差异对工作合同结构的影响奠定基础。

In a perfect market, employers will offer wage and bonus packages that will provide employees with just the right incentives to accomplish tasks they are given. But what if, as has been widely documented, employees are systematically over or under-confident regarding their abilities? If so, employers might be able to take advantage of these biases. For example, employers could offer overconfident employees low wages and very high bonuses tied to outstanding performance. Overconfident employees will accept the low wages because they assume (incorrectly) that they are very likely to get the big bonuses.To test such predictions, the PIs will conduct an experiment in which participants are first assessed in terms of their self-confidence by comparing each participant's score on an aptitude test to the score the each participant predicted he or she would get. Subjects then participate in a simulated employment situation in a computer laboratory. The effect of over- or under-confidence is measured by comparing behavior when participants' probability of success in their task is determined by their test score, and when it depends on a randomly assigned number. This setup holds everything but the employee's self-assessed ability constant. The experiment will confirm if different self-confidence levels are indeed associated with different incentives, effort levels, and overall profits for employers and employees. Ultimately, it will set the stage for exploring the connection between self-confidence and demographic factors like gender and the implications of gender differences for the structure of work contracts.