Guerrilla Insurgencies: The International and Domestic Sources of Resource Mobilization and Coercive Bargaining

主要研究者（pi）对1980-2007年的游击叛乱进行了创新的理论和实证研究。这些理论模型既借鉴了国际关系学者提出的战争讨价还价理论，也借鉴了比较政治学者提出的资源动员的集体行动理论。pi使用这些模型来分析国内和国际力量如何在三个连续的阶段影响游击叛乱。在第一阶段，核心问题是低水平的游击武装冲突是否会升级为大规模的内战。在第二阶段，分析的重点是了解游击队和政权之间强制讨价还价的模式，其中战斗人员选择不同的武装攻击和谈判策略。在这一阶段，关注的核心结果包括战争的持续时间、暴力的严重程度和目标，以及谈判的频率和时机。在第三阶段，pi分析了内战如何通过谈判协议、军事胜利或在没有任何解决方案的情况下缓和局势来结束的动态。在这三个阶段中的每一个阶段，pi利用他们的理论框架，利用IR讨价还价理论和集体行动理论来解释不同的行为模式。pi期望讨价还价理论对于理解战略互动和联合反应所产生的结果尤其重要，而集体行动理论将最有帮助的是建模个体战斗人员的行动和选择如何对联合结果做出贡献。他们预计国际因素对游击队叛乱的发起和结束特别重要，而国内因素对叛乱的动态将更为重要。为了检验从他们的战时谈判和集体行动理论中得出的假设，pi构建了一个原始数据集，该数据集随机抽取了1980-2007年间173次游击叛乱的人口样本。这些假设通过一系列新的细粒度数据集的统计分析进行检验，该项目的结果将对游击叛乱动力学的基础研究、冲突讨价还价模型和集体行动理论的学术文献做出重要贡献，并开发出其他研究人员应该广泛感兴趣的新数据集。除了对基础研究的贡献之外，这个项目的发现应该对美国和国外寻求及时干预来管理和控制其他国家内部武装冲突的政策制定者有意义。例如，调查结果应有助于决策者预测：(1)低水平的内部冲突何时会升级为内战；(2)内战何时会导致人道主义危机和针对平民的大规模暴力；(3)战斗人员是否可能受到外部威胁和制裁的胁迫。

The principal investigators (PIs) use an innovative theoretical and empirical study of guerrilla insurgencies from 1980-2007. The theoretical models draw upon both bargaining theories of war developed by international relations scholars as well as collective action theories of resource mobilization utilized by comparative politics scholars. The PIs use the models to analyze how domestic and international forces influence guerrilla insurgencies across three sequential stages. In the first stage, the central question is whether a low-level guerrilla armed conflicts escalate to large-scale civil war. In the second stage, the analysis focuses on understanding patterns of coercive bargaining between guerrillas and regimes in which combatants choose different strategies of armed attacks and negotiations. In this stage the central outcomes of interest include the duration of the war, the severity and targets of violence, and the frequency and timing of talks. In the third stage the PIs analyze the dynamics of how civil wars come to an end via negotiated agreements, military victories, or de-escalation without any settlements. At each of these three stages, the PIs utilize their theoretical framework that draws upon IR bargaining theory and collective action theory to explain varying patterns of behavior. The PIs expect bargaining theory to be especially important to understanding outcomes resulting from strategic interaction and joint responses, while collective action theory will be most helpful in modeling how the actions and choices of individual combatants contribute to the joint outcomes. They expect international factors to be particularly significant to the initiation and termination of guerrilla insurgencies, while domestic factors will be more important to the dynamics of insurgency.To test the hypotheses derived from their theory of wartime bargaining and collective action, the PIs construct an original data set on a random sample of guerrilla insurgencies drawn from the population of 173 such insurgencies from 1980-2007. The hypotheses are tested through a series of statistical analyses of new fine-grained datasets and the results of the project will make important contributions to basic research on the dynamics of guerrilla insurgencies, scholarly literatures on bargaining models of conflict and collective action theory, and develop new datasets that should be of widespread interest to other researchers. In addition to contributions to basic research, the findings from this project should be of relevance to policymakers in the US and abroad who seek timely interventions to manage and control internal armed conflicts in other states. For example, the findings should help policymakers to anticipate: (1) when low-level internal conflicts will escalate to civil wars, (2) when civil wars will lead to humanitarian crises and large-scale violence against civilian populations, and (3) whether combatants are likely to be coerced by outside threats and sanctions.