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International Conflict Among the Great Powers

大国之间的国际冲突

基本信息

批准号：
9023067
负责人：
Paul Huth
金额：
$ 4.82万
依托单位：
Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
1991
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1991-03-01 至 1993-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9023067&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
International Conflict Among Great Powers

项目摘要

This award supports an ambitious program of research to advance understanding of the conditions likely to promote or discourage war between major international powers. A long standing assumption of international relations, but one rarely tested systematically, is that the structure of the international system significantly influences the probability of war. In particular, it is held that the probability of war increases with the level of uncertainty in the international system about the likely outcome of war. This is linked in turn to the number and relative power of nations and alliances in the international system. This research develops and tests a series of hypotheses about the probability of war which derive from a theoretical model integrating the structure of the international system with the propensity of national decision makers to take risks. Systematic tests of these hypotheses will be undertaken using data on the population of great power rivalries that have been catalogued since 1816. In addition comparative case studies of both typical and deviant cases will be undertaken to illustrate in greater detail the results of the statistical analyses and to illuminate areas of weakness. Finally, the implications of the analysis will be explored for possible lessons for reducing the likelihood of great power war in the contemporary international system. When completed this research will strengthen our theoretical understanding of the effects of different international structures or world orders on the likelihood of war and facilitate judgements about the desirability about proposed changes in international structure.

该奖项支持一项雄心勃勃的研究计划，以促进对可能促进或阻止战争的条件的了解主要国际力量之间。一个长期存在的假设国际关系，但很少系统地测试，国际体系的结构影响战争的可能性。特别是，法院认为，战争的可能性随着不确定性的增加而增加在国际体系中关于战争的可能结果。这与国家的数量和相对实力有关和国际体系中的联盟。这项研究开发了并测试了一系列关于战争可能性的假设，从一个理论模型中得出，倾向于国家决定的国际体系制造商承担风险。将利用数据对这些假设进行系统的检验对大国竞争的人口，自1816年以来，此外，比较案例研究典型案例和偏差案例将被用来说明，更详细的统计分析结果，照亮弱点最后，将探讨分析可能的经验教训，当代国际关系中大国战争的可能性系统当完成这项研究将加强我们的理论理解不同国际结构的影响或世界秩序对战争的可能性，并促进判断关于拟议的国际变化的可取性，结构