Collaborative Research: Development of a Technology for Real Time Ex Ante Forecasting of Intra and International Conflict and Cooperation

这个奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案(公法111-5)资助的。冲突在黎凡特、南亚和其他地方继续肆虐。政府、非政府组织和政府间组织正在寻找一种技术，帮助他们预测暴力的爆发。在预测未来两年的单一事件和政治不稳定方面取得了一些进展。但我们缺乏科学上可靠的工具来衡量这些和其他预测的统计不确定性，实时做出预测，分析交战各方的行为，以及做出应急预测(预测的条件是第三方可能的干预)。我们开发了一种科学先进的技术来满足这些愿望：一种在开放源码网站上实时、事前预测世界三个地区内部和国际冲突与合作的工具。时间序列数据是由最先进的Tabari自动编码软件使用客串事件和演员编码系统生成的；来源是新闻提要聚合器，如Google News和通过真正简单的聚合提要(RSS)访问的欧洲监视器。具有马尔可夫切换的贝叶斯多变量时间序列模型适用于这些数据。然后，这些模型产生定向并元行为系统的预测概率密度。模型的性能基于密度评估；通过发展的重新校准方法对模型进行修正。该网站将报告黎凡特、南亚和东亚选定的交战国系统的预报；它将传播编码事件数据、这些情况的实时预报以及预报不确定性的度量、基于可能干预的应急预报、关于模型性能的信息。这项技术将满足国际关系中大多数(如果不是全部)预测的需求。有三个具体的贡献。首先，论证了实时事件自动编码的可行性和价值。到目前为止，这种编码一直滞后于实时；数据的价值还没有实现。目前的统计工作在预测方面的应用是第二个贡献。在政治学中，我们第一次产生和评估密度(而不是点)预测。我们还用新开发的重新校准技术改进了我们的预测模型。第三，明确分析了众所周知的冲突和合作阶段转变的趋势，并将其纳入我们的预测。我们模型中的马尔可夫切换元素捕捉到了这些非线性。使用TeraGrid，我们产生占据某些状态的行为系统的概率加权预测，报告转移概率，并包括对两者的不确定性的估计。因此，最终的预测模型将在国际关系中独树一帜。我们制作的预测将可供非政府组织、政府间组织以及任何对预测黎凡特、南亚和东亚冲突感兴趣的各方使用。为了帮助这些政党使用我们的预测，我们将在APS、ISA和IPS举办的会议上发表演讲。我们还将通过中央研究院等机构在台湾等国家介绍我们的工作并宣传我们的网站。最终，我们的网站将根据学者的意见和政策制定者对如果发生某种干预将在短期内发生什么的预测来报告应急预测。对相移概率和预测密度的估计将伴随这些或有预报。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Conflicts continue to rage in the Levant, South Asia, and elsewhere. Governmental, nongovernmental, and intergovernmental organizations are seeking a technology that will help them anticipate the outbreak of violence. Some progress has been made predicting single events and political instability two years ahead. But we lack scientifically sound tools for gauging the statistical uncertainty of these and other forecasts, making predictions in real-time, analyzing the behavior of groups of belligerents, and making contingent forecasts (forecasts conditional on possible interventions by third parties). We develop a scientifically advanced technology that meets these desiderata: a tool that produces on an open source website in real-time, ex ante forecasts of intra- and international conflict and cooperation for three parts of the world. The time series data is produced by state-of-the art TABARI automated coding software using the CAMEO event and actor coding system; the source are news feed aggregators such as Google News and the European Monitor accessed via real simple syndication feeds (RSS). Bayesian multivariate time series models with Markov-switching are fit to these data. These models then produce forecast probability densities for systems of directed dyadic behaviors. Model performance is based on density evaluation; model refinements are made via developed recalibration methods. The website will report forecasts for selected systems of belligerents in the Levant, South Asia, and East Asia; it will disseminate the coded event data, real-time forecasts of these cases with measures of forecast uncertainty, contingent forecasts based on possible interventions, information on model performance. The technology will meet most, if not all, of the desiderata for forecasting in international relations. Three specific contributions are be made. First, the feasibility and value of automated real-time events coding is demonstrated. Until now, this coding has lagged real-time; and the value of the data has not been realized. The application of current statistical work on forecasting is a second contribution. For the first time in political science we produce and evaluate density (not point) forecasts. And we refine our forecasting models with newly developed recalibration techniques. Third, the well known tendency for conflict and cooperation phase shifts are explicitly analyzed and incorporated in our forecasts. The Markov-switching element of our model capture these nonlinearities. Using the Teragrid we produce probability weighted forecasts of behavioral systems occupying certain states, report transition probabilities, and include estimates of the uncertainty of both. Thus the final forecasting models will be original in international relations. The forecasts we produce will be available for use by NGOs, IGOs, and any party interested in anticipating conflict in the Levant, South Asia, and East Asia. To help these parties use our forecasts we will make presentations at meetings held by the A.P.S.A, I.S.A, and I.P.S.A. We also will present our work and publicize our website in countries like Taiwan via institutions like the Academia Sinica. Eventually, our website will report contingent forecasts based on inputs from scholars and policy makers' forecasts of what will transpire in the short-term if certain kinds of intervention occur. Estimates of the probability of phase shifts and of forecast densities will accompany these contingent forecasts.