A Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Gender, Race, and Ethnic Disparities in the Probability of Incarceration

该奖项由2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)资助。累积的社会科学证据表明，被定罪的黑人和西班牙裔被告比白人被告更有可能被判处监禁，而被定罪的女性被判入狱的可能性比男性低得多。这个项目的重点是在过去的二十年里，美国城市地区在监禁概率方面的人口差异是否发生了变化，以及观察到的任何变化是否与同一时期发生的其他社会、经济和政治变化有关。该项目考察了三个具体的研究问题：(1)在过去20年中，被定罪者被监禁概率的种族、民族和性别差异是否发生了变化？(2)在过去20年中，城市县和州之间的种族、民族和性别差异是否有所不同？(3)在这段时间里，在美国司法管辖区内和跨司法管辖区，哪些社会、经济和政策条件对种族、民族和性别差异的监禁概率趋势影响最大？这些问题是通过对1990年至2008年美国城市法院9万多起刑事定罪的多层次分析来解决的。该项目侧重于拉丁裔、非拉丁裔黑人、非拉丁裔白人、男性和女性以及特定性别的种族和族裔分组的监禁概率的绝对和相对趋势。特别注意评估量刑政策的转变、种族和性别态度的改变以及社会和经济条件中客观群体差异的缩小是否导致入狱概率的人口差异的变化。这一结果将阐明过去20年来种族、民族和性别差距较小、下降最明显的地方的社会条件和公共政策。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).The accumulated social science evidence suggests that black and Hispanic convicted defendants tend to be significantly more likely than white defendants to receive a sentence of imprisonment, and that convicted females are significantly less likely to be sentenced to prison than males. This project focuses on whether these demographic disparities in the probability of incarceration have changed during the past two decades in American urban areas and whether any observed changes are associated with other social, economic, and political shifts that have occurred during the same period. The project examines three specific research questions: (1) Have racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration among convicted persons changed during the past two decades?; (2) Have racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration during the past two decades varied across urban counties and states?; and (3) What social, economic, and policy conditions have been most influential in shaping trends in racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration within and across jurisdictions in the U.S. over this period? These questions are addressed with a multilevel analysis of more than 90,000 criminal convictions in urban American courts between 1990 and 2008. The project focuses on absolute and relative trends in the probability of incarceration for Latinos, non-Latino blacks, non-Latino whites, males, and females, as well as gender-specific racial and ethnic sub-groups. Particular attention is devoted to assessing whether shifts in sentencing policies, changes in racial and gender attitudes, and reductions in objective group differences in social and economic conditions have yielded changes in demographic disparities in the probability of incarceration. The results will illuminate the social conditions and public policies that characterize places in which racial, ethnic, and gender disparities are smaller and where they have declined most significantly during the past two decades.