A Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Gender, Race, and Ethnic Disparities in the Probability of Incarceration

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。积累的社会科学证据表明，黑人和西班牙裔被定罪的被告往往比白色被告更有可能被判处监禁，被定罪的女性被判处监禁的可能性明显低于男性。 该项目的重点是在过去的二十年中，美国城市地区监禁概率的人口差异是否发生了变化，以及是否有任何观察到的变化与同期发生的其他社会，经济和政治变化有关。 该项目审查了三个具体的研究问题：（1）在过去二十年中，被定罪者监禁概率的种族、民族和性别差异是否发生了变化？(2)在过去的二十年里，在城市、县和州之间，监禁概率的种族、民族和性别差异是否有所不同？以及（3）在此期间，在美国司法管辖区内和司法管辖区之间，什么样的社会、经济和政策条件对形成种族、民族和性别差异的趋势影响最大？ 这些问题是解决了一个多层次的分析超过90,000刑事定罪在美国城市法院1990年至2008年之间。 该项目侧重于拉丁美洲人、非拉丁美洲黑人、非拉丁美洲白人、男性和女性以及按性别划分的种族和族裔亚群体被监禁概率的绝对和相对趋势。 特别注意的是专门评估是否在量刑政策的变化，在种族和性别态度的变化，并减少客观群体的社会和经济条件的差异产生了变化的人口差异的监禁概率。 调查结果将阐明社会条件和公共政策，这些条件和政策是种族、民族和性别差异较小的地方的特征，也是过去二十年来下降最显著的地方。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).The accumulated social science evidence suggests that black and Hispanic convicted defendants tend to be significantly more likely than white defendants to receive a sentence of imprisonment, and that convicted females are significantly less likely to be sentenced to prison than males. This project focuses on whether these demographic disparities in the probability of incarceration have changed during the past two decades in American urban areas and whether any observed changes are associated with other social, economic, and political shifts that have occurred during the same period. The project examines three specific research questions: (1) Have racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration among convicted persons changed during the past two decades?; (2) Have racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration during the past two decades varied across urban counties and states?; and (3) What social, economic, and policy conditions have been most influential in shaping trends in racial, ethnic, and gender differences in the probability of incarceration within and across jurisdictions in the U.S. over this period? These questions are addressed with a multilevel analysis of more than 90,000 criminal convictions in urban American courts between 1990 and 2008. The project focuses on absolute and relative trends in the probability of incarceration for Latinos, non-Latino blacks, non-Latino whites, males, and females, as well as gender-specific racial and ethnic sub-groups. Particular attention is devoted to assessing whether shifts in sentencing policies, changes in racial and gender attitudes, and reductions in objective group differences in social and economic conditions have yielded changes in demographic disparities in the probability of incarceration. The results will illuminate the social conditions and public policies that characterize places in which racial, ethnic, and gender disparities are smaller and where they have declined most significantly during the past two decades.