Collaborative Research: Evolutionary and Comparative Models of the Demographic Transition

Mary Shenk博士（密苏里大学）和Mary Towner博士（俄克拉荷马州立大学）将使用来自孟加拉国Matlab的嵌套数据集来检查人口转型的进化和比较模型，这是一种全球现象，高生育率和死亡率被低生育率和死亡率所取代。大多数研究将人口转型与经济发展联系起来，但其潜在机制仍激发了许多跨学科的争论；作为一个统一的框架，进化理论在帮助阐明相关动机和机制方面显示出巨大的潜力。该项目的目标是利用进化理论推进对人口转变的理论和实证理解，并首次对关键的进化和非进化模型进行全面的比较分析。这些目标将通过三个具体目标来实现：(1)使用来自孟加拉国的大规模纵向数据来评估人口转型的三个有影响力的进化模型，重点关注风险、亲代投资和文化演变；(2)采用循证统计方法对进化模型与非进化模型进行比较；(3)在Matlab总体的子样本上收集详细的新数据，提供深入的信息，以便于多个模型的比较。人口结构的转变将在21世纪产生重大的社会影响。高出生率阻碍了贫穷国家的经济发展，而人口老龄化和低生育率破坏了发达国家的安全网，并助长了社会紧张局势。进化方法有可能彻底改变人口行为的研究，但进化人口学的工作范围有限，只有一小部分学者熟悉。该项目旨在通过使用种群水平数据测试进化模型，将其与其他领域的模型进行比较，并跨学科发布结果，从而改变这种模式。该项目将通过向研究人口、政策期刊和发展工作团体传播研究结果来处理政策影响。它还将为学生提供研究培训，并在合作院校之间建立持久的联系。

Dr. Mary Shenk (University of Missouri) and Dr. Mary Towner (Oklahoma State University) will use nested datasets from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine evolutionary and comparative models of the demographic transition, a global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Most research links the demographic transition to economic development, but the underlying mechanisms still inspire much interdisciplinary debate; as a unifying framework, evolutionary theory shows great potential for helping to clarify both the motivations and mechanisms involved. The goals of the project are to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of the demographic transition using evolutionary theory, and to provide the first comprehensive comparative analyses of key evolutionary and non-evolutionary models. These goals will be met through three specific aims: (1) use large-scale, longitudinal data from Bangladesh to evaluate three influential evolutionary models of the demographic transition, focusing on risk, parental investment, and cultural evolution; (2) use an evidence-based statistical approach to compare evolutionary models with their non-evolutionary counterparts; and (3) collect detailed new data on a subsample of the Matlab population to provide in-depth information to facilitate the comparison of multiple models.The demographic transition will have significant social impacts in the 21st century. High birthrates hinder economic development in poor nations, while population aging and low fertility undermine safety nets and contribute to social tensions in developed nations. Evolutionary approaches have the potential to revolutionize the study of demographic behavior, yet work in evolutionary demography has been limited in scope and is only familiar to a small community of scholars. This project aims to alter this pattern by testing evolutionary models using population-level data, comparing them to models from other fields, and publishing the results across disciplines. The project will address policy implications by disseminating findings to the study population, policy journals, and the development work community. It will also provide research training to students and forge durable ties between collaborating institutions.