Collaborative Research: Evolutionary and Comparative Models of the Demographic Transition

玛丽申克博士（密苏里州大学）和玛丽托纳博士（俄克拉荷马州州立大学）将使用孟加拉国Matlab的嵌套数据集，研究人口结构转型的演变和比较模型，这是一种全球现象，高生育率和死亡率被低生育率和死亡率所取代。大多数研究将人口结构转型与经济发展联系起来，但其内在机制仍然激发了许多跨学科的辩论;作为一个统一的框架，进化理论显示出帮助澄清所涉及的动机和机制的巨大潜力。该项目的目标是利用进化理论推进对人口结构转型的理论和经验理解，并首次对关键的进化和非进化模型进行全面的比较分析。这些目标将通过三个具体目标实现：（1）使用孟加拉国的大规模纵向数据，评估人口结构转型的三个有影响力的演变模型，重点是风险、父母投资和文化演变;（2）使用基于证据的统计方法，将演变模型与非演变模型进行比较;以及（3）收集Matlab人口子样本的详细新数据，以提供深入的信息，便于多个模型的比较。人口结构转型将在世纪产生重大的社会影响。高出生率阻碍了贫穷国家的经济发展，而人口老龄化和低生育率则破坏了安全网，加剧了发达国家的社会紧张局势。进化方法有可能彻底改变人口行为的研究，但进化人口学的工作范围有限，只有一小部分学者熟悉。该项目旨在通过使用人口水平数据测试进化模型，将其与其他领域的模型进行比较，并跨学科发布结果来改变这种模式。该项目将通过向研究对象、政策期刊和发展工作界传播研究结果来解决政策问题。它还将为学生提供研究培训，并在合作机构之间建立持久的联系。

Dr. Mary Shenk (University of Missouri) and Dr. Mary Towner (Oklahoma State University) will use nested datasets from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine evolutionary and comparative models of the demographic transition, a global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Most research links the demographic transition to economic development, but the underlying mechanisms still inspire much interdisciplinary debate; as a unifying framework, evolutionary theory shows great potential for helping to clarify both the motivations and mechanisms involved. The goals of the project are to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of the demographic transition using evolutionary theory, and to provide the first comprehensive comparative analyses of key evolutionary and non-evolutionary models. These goals will be met through three specific aims: (1) use large-scale, longitudinal data from Bangladesh to evaluate three influential evolutionary models of the demographic transition, focusing on risk, parental investment, and cultural evolution; (2) use an evidence-based statistical approach to compare evolutionary models with their non-evolutionary counterparts; and (3) collect detailed new data on a subsample of the Matlab population to provide in-depth information to facilitate the comparison of multiple models.The demographic transition will have significant social impacts in the 21st century. High birthrates hinder economic development in poor nations, while population aging and low fertility undermine safety nets and contribute to social tensions in developed nations. Evolutionary approaches have the potential to revolutionize the study of demographic behavior, yet work in evolutionary demography has been limited in scope and is only familiar to a small community of scholars. This project aims to alter this pattern by testing evolutionary models using population-level data, comparing them to models from other fields, and publishing the results across disciplines. The project will address policy implications by disseminating findings to the study population, policy journals, and the development work community. It will also provide research training to students and forge durable ties between collaborating institutions.