Collaborative Research: Vertical Heating Structure in Large-Scale Convectively Coupled Tropical Waves

大范围的有组织对流，特别是马登-朱利安振荡(MJO)的形式，对广泛的天气/气候现象产生了重大影响。不幸的是，当前的大气环流模型(GCM)不能很好地表示这些形式的可变性。特别是，关于MJO的一个广为接受和全面的理论仍然难以捉摸。该项目试图通过充分描述MJO和对流耦合赤道波(CCEW)的垂直结构，特别是非绝热加热来应对这一挑战，以更好地约束理论理解，并向模式开发界提供关键的验证信息。具体地说，研究人员将(I)描述热带降雨测量任务(TRMM)估计的与大尺度和低频CCEW有关的垂直潜热结构，包括MJO，并在TRMM降雨、大气红外探测仪(AIRS)温度和湿度以及CloudSat云型变化的背景下研究它们，特别侧重于描述空间变异性、季节调制、事件对事件的变异性以及对我们理论理解的影响；(2)将这些加热和潮湿热力结构与新的再分析产品的数值进行比较，以评估和描述卫星产品和模式产品在表示CCEW方面的不确定性和不足之处；(3)将这些加热和潮湿热力结构与一对传统的GCM和一对GCM的数值进行比较，利用多模式框架量化模式对CCEW的表示的保真度，并向模式开发小组提供反馈；(4)研究Rossby波发射对热带加热结构位置和垂直剖面的依赖。这个项目的更广泛影响包括：(1)改进我们全球气候/天气模式中热带对流活动的平均结构和变异性，这最终将有助于提高热带和热带外中至长期天气和季节气候预测的技能，促进在次季节时间尺度上迄今尚未开发的预测潜力的发展，并减少与全球气候变化模型预测有关的不确定性；(2)在需求旺盛的领域培训一名研究生。

Large-scale organized convection, particularly in the form of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), exerts significant impacts on a wide range of weather/climate phenomena. Current general circulation models (GCMs), unfortunately, are incapable of robustly representing these forms of variability. In particular, a well-accepted and comprehensive theory for the MJO is still elusive. This project seeks to address this challenge by fully characterizing the vertical structures of the MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs), particularly diabatic heating, to better constrain theoretical understanding as well as to provide crucial validation information to the model development community. Specifically, the investigators will (i) characterize the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) -estimated vertical latent heating structures associated with the large-scale and low-frequency CCEWs, including the MJO, and examine them in the context of the TRMM rainfall, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture, and CloudSat cloud-type variations, with a particular focus on describing the spatial variability, seasonal modulation, event-to-event variability, and implications for our theoretical understanding; (ii) compare these heating and moist thermodynamic structures with values from the new reanalysis products to assess and characterize the uncertainties and shortcomings of both the satellite and model based products in regards to their representation of CCEWs; (iii) compare these heating and moist thermodynamic structures with values from a pair of traditional GCMs and a pair of GCMs utilizing multi-model framework to quantify the fidelity of the model's representation of CCEWs and provide feedback to the model development teams; and (iv) examine the dependence of the Rossby Wave emanation on the location and vertical profiles of the tropical heating structures. The broader impacts of this project include (i) improvements in the mean structure and variability of tropical convective activity in our global climate/weather models, which will ultimately lead to improved skill of medium-to-extended range weather and seasonal climate predictions both in the tropics and extra-tropics, facilitate the development of the hitherto unexploited forecast potential at the subseasonal time scale, and reduce uncertainties associated with global model projections of climate change; (ii) the training of a graduate student in an area that is in high demand.