Collaborative Research: Vertical Heating Structure in Large-Scale Convectively Coupled Tropical Waves

大规模有组织的对流，特别是以马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 的形式，对各种天气/气候现象产生重大影响。不幸的是，当前的大气环流模型（GCM）无法稳健地表示这些形式的变化。特别是，MJO 的广泛接受和全面的理论仍然难以实现。该项目旨在通过全面表征 MJO 和对流耦合赤道波 (CCEW) 的垂直结构（特别是非绝热加热）来应对这一挑战，以更好地限制理论理解并为模型开发社区提供关键的验证信息。具体来说，研究人员将 (i) 描述热带降雨测量任务 (TRMM) 的特征 - 估计与大规模和低频 CCEW（包括 MJO）相关的垂直潜热结构，并在 TRMM 降雨、大气红外探测器 (AIRS) 温度和湿度以及 CloudSat 云型变化的背景下检查它们，特别关注描述空间变化、季节调制、事件间变化以及对我们理论的影响理解； (ii) 将这些加热和潮湿的热力学结构与新的再分析产品的值进行比较，以评估和表征基于卫星和模型的产品在代表 CCEW 方面的不确定性和缺点； (iii) 将这些加热和潮湿热力学结构与一对传统 GCM 和一对利用多模型框架的 GCM 的值进行比较，以量化 CCEW 模型表示的保真度，并向模型开发团队提供反馈； (iv) 检查罗斯贝波发射对热带加热结构的位置和垂直剖面的依赖性。该项目的更广泛影响包括：(i) 改善我们的全球气候/天气模型中热带对流活动的平均结构和变异性，这最终将提高热带和热带外地区中大范围天气和季节性气候预测的技能，促进在次季节时间尺度上开发迄今尚未开发的预测潜力，并减少与气候变化全球模型预测相关的不确定性； (ii) 在高需求领域培训研究生。

Large-scale organized convection, particularly in the form of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), exerts significant impacts on a wide range of weather/climate phenomena. Current general circulation models (GCMs), unfortunately, are incapable of robustly representing these forms of variability. In particular, a well-accepted and comprehensive theory for the MJO is still elusive. This project seeks to address this challenge by fully characterizing the vertical structures of the MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs), particularly diabatic heating, to better constrain theoretical understanding as well as to provide crucial validation information to the model development community. Specifically, the investigators will (i) characterize the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) -estimated vertical latent heating structures associated with the large-scale and low-frequency CCEWs, including the MJO, and examine them in the context of the TRMM rainfall, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture, and CloudSat cloud-type variations, with a particular focus on describing the spatial variability, seasonal modulation, event-to-event variability, and implications for our theoretical understanding; (ii) compare these heating and moist thermodynamic structures with values from the new reanalysis products to assess and characterize the uncertainties and shortcomings of both the satellite and model based products in regards to their representation of CCEWs; (iii) compare these heating and moist thermodynamic structures with values from a pair of traditional GCMs and a pair of GCMs utilizing multi-model framework to quantify the fidelity of the model's representation of CCEWs and provide feedback to the model development teams; and (iv) examine the dependence of the Rossby Wave emanation on the location and vertical profiles of the tropical heating structures. The broader impacts of this project include (i) improvements in the mean structure and variability of tropical convective activity in our global climate/weather models, which will ultimately lead to improved skill of medium-to-extended range weather and seasonal climate predictions both in the tropics and extra-tropics, facilitate the development of the hitherto unexploited forecast potential at the subseasonal time scale, and reduce uncertainties associated with global model projections of climate change; (ii) the training of a graduate student in an area that is in high demand.