Collaborative proposal: The political and Security Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change on Modern Populations: An Integrated Computational Model

合作提案：气候突变对现代人口的政治和安全影响：综合计算模型

• 批准号: 0940744
• 负责人: John Orbell
• 金额: $ 90.66万
• 依托单位: University of Oregon Eugene
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-15 至 2016-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0940744&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; proposal; political; Security; Impacts

Since the 1970s, climate scientists have developed increasingly sophisticated models of the world climate system. These models are converging on predictions about climate changes that are likely to occur in coming decades. Such changes are certain to provoke human responses and many commentators have suggested what those responses are likely to be in particular parts of the world. Nevertheless, human populations are complex systems in which changes in one part of the system can have significant consequences for other, perhaps quite remote, parts of the system - meaning that human responses to climate change must also be studied as processes in a complex system involving, potentially at least, all human societies. To date, however, the social sciences have not produced models of large scale human population systems that integrate predictions from climate models. One reason for this neglect may be that such work requires knowledge not only of the basic principles of human behavior and the techniques for modeling it, but also of (1) current climate models; (2) geographic information systems (GIS) which provide a means for organizing geographic data worldwide, including human population data; (3) statistical techniques for analyzing the large amounts of data produced from population simulations; and (4) actual human responses to climate changes both in the recent past (e.g., Darfur) and in the more remote past (e.g., ancient Maya). Accordingly, the present project includes two political scientists with background in behavioral modeling; a climatologist who has worked extensively on climate modeling; an expert in geographic information systems; an expert in applied mathematics and statistics; and an archaeologist. Initial steps toward the behavioral model will be tested against known cases of climate change in the recent past (e.g. Darfur) and the more remote past (e.g., the Mayan collapse). To the extent predictions from the developing model do not match known human responses in such cases, its parameters will be adjusted - and, subsequently, tested against further such cases. Archaeological evidence shows that climate change has undermined many civilizations in the past but also that the climate changes per se were often less damaging than the human responses to those changes - including mass migration and armed conflict. In the interdependent modern world, human responses to climate changes have the potential to ripple well beyond an immediately affected area, and responses to such changes in different and perhaps quite remote areas might interact in negative ways. Thus, well developed models of likely human responses to expected climate changes - including abrupt changes - will allow policy makers to anticipate not only local consequences of local climate changes, but also geographically perhaps quite remote consequences. The project takes initial steps toward more fully developed models of human responses to climate change, just as early climate models can now be seen as initial steps toward the more fully developed climate models that presently exist.

自1970年代以来，气候科学家已经开发了越来越复杂的世界气候系统模型。这些模型正在融合有关未来几十年可能发生的气候变化的预测。这样的变化肯定会引起人类的反应，许多评论员提出了这些反应可能在世界各地。然而，人口是复杂的系统，在该系统中，系统的一部分变化可能会对系统的另一部分（也许是相当遥远）产生重大影响 - 这意味着，还必须将人类对气候变化的反应作为复杂系统中的过程研究，至少是所有人类社会。然而，迄今为止，社会科学还没有产生大规模人口系统的模型，这些模型可以整合来自气候模型的预测。这种忽视的原因之一可能是，这种工作不仅需要知识，不仅需要人类行为的基本原理和建模技术，还需要（1）当前气候模型的知识。 （2）地理信息系统（GIS），该系统提供了全球组织地理数据的手段，包括人口数据； （3）用于分析人口模拟产生的大量数据的统计技术； （4）最近的人类对气候的实际反应在最近的过去（例如，达尔富尔）和更遥远的过去（例如，古代玛雅人）。因此，本项目包括两位具有行为建模背景的政治科学家。一位在气候建模方面广泛工作的气候学家；地理信息系统专家；应用数学和统计专家；和考古学家。在最近的过去（例如，达尔富尔）和更遥远的过去（例如，玛雅人崩溃）的情况下，将针对已知气候变化的已知气候变化案例进行测试。在这种情况下，从发展模型的预测范围不匹配已知的人类响应，将调整其参数，并随后针对进一步的情况进行了测试。考古证据表明，气候变化在过去破坏了许多文明，但气候变化本身通常比人类对这些变化的反应（包括大规模迁移和武装冲突）的损害通常要小。在相互依存的现代世界中，人类对气候变化的反应有可能使远远超出受影响的地区，并且对不同偏远地区的这种变化的反应可能会以消极的方式相互作用。因此，人类对预期气候变化的可能反应的良好发展模型（包括突然的变化）将使决策者不仅可以预测当地气候变化的当地后果，而且在地理上也可能会造成偏僻的后果。该项目采取了最初的步骤，朝着对气候变化的更全面发展的模型，就像早期的气候模型现在可以看作是朝着目前存在的更完全发展的气候模型迈出的初始步骤一样。