Collaborative Research: The Political Economy of Localized Communal Conflicts in Ethiopia

合作研究：埃塞俄比亚局部社区冲突的政治经济学

• 批准号: 0960673
• 负责人: Tsering Youdon
• 金额: $ 11.3万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-01 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0960673&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Political; Economy; Localized

Under what conditions does violence erupt in multiethnic communities? Why does conflict break out between groups in some communities but not in others? Such questions are investigated through a study of communal conflicts in Ethiopia, a poor country where local order often breaks down as neighboring groups take up arms to resolve their disputes. By examining patterns of conflict at the district level, this research project aims to explain how institutions of local governance influence tensions produced by social divides and resource scarcity. Specifically, this study examines to what extent the outbreak of violence depends on the representation of different groups in district-level administration and the intensity of weather-related shocks to local crop production or animal rearing.Ethiopia provides an ideal context for studying how communal conflicts arise through the interaction between institutions, identities, and resources. While the country's districts vary considerably in levels of ethnic diversity and land productivity, decentralizing reforms adopted in the past 15 years have empowered all districts to make decisions over budget expenditures, land use, and agricultural inputs. The distribution of district resources may not affect the welfare of citizens during normal times, but a district's authority over land and water use becomes a critical issue during the prolonged periods of scarcity often confronted in a country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Whether local groups monopolize or share control of district administration could therefore influence the outbreak of violence between them.To assess the causes of communal conflict in Ethiopia, this project will develop a dataset of conflicts found in all districts and undertake ethnographic studies of two selected districts over a two-year period. First, the project will draw on government and non-government sources of information to assemble a dataset of local conflicts across Ethiopia's 550 districts between 1995 and 2006. The district-level data will allow for a statistical analysis that tests whether the outbreak of violence can be attributed to institutional, demographic, or economic factors. Second, the project will use the district-level dataset to identify two districts for in-depth ethnographic study. Interviews and focus groups will be organized with members of selected communities to establish how, in practice, administrative authority, demographic pressures, and resource constraints heighten fear or competition between groups. These ethnographic studies will further help to establish how episodes of communal conflict are understood in their local socio-cultural context, overwhelming traditional mechanisms of dispute resolution and possibly creating cycles of recurrent violence. This project is relevant to the stability of countries in Africa and other developing regions, which share many of Ethiopia's economic and political characteristics. Its research will directly address the impact of decentralizing reforms, which are often promoted as an institutional solution to the competition over resources in multiethnic countries. Yet, it remains to be shown how decentralization affects the outbreak of violence between groups, particularly when those reforms can bring about a realignment of power at the local level. This project's findings will provide a better understanding of how institutional changes interact with demographic and resource pressures in fragile states. The lessons derived from this research will permit scholars and policymakers to craft institutional reforms better suited to preventing communal conflicts that often degenerate into complex humanitarian crises.

多民族社区在什么情况下会爆发暴力？为什么有些社区的群体之间会爆发冲突，而另一些社区则不会？这些问题是通过对埃塞俄比亚社区冲突的研究来调查的，埃塞俄比亚是一个贫穷的国家，当地秩序经常崩溃，因为邻近的团体拿起武器来解决他们的争端。本研究项目旨在通过研究地区一级的冲突模式，解释地方治理机构如何影响社会分化和资源稀缺造成的紧张局势。具体而言，本研究探讨在何种程度上的暴力事件的爆发取决于代表不同群体在区级行政和强度的天气相关的冲击，当地作物生产或动物raising.Ethiopia提供了一个理想的背景下，研究如何通过机构，身份和资源之间的相互作用产生的社区冲突。虽然该国各区在种族多样性和土地生产力方面差异很大，但过去15年来实行的权力下放改革使各区都有权就预算支出、土地使用和农业投入作出决定。在正常时期，地区资源的分配可能不会影响公民的福利，但在一个依赖雨水灌溉农业的国家经常面临长期缺水的情况下，地区对土地和水资源使用的权力就成为一个关键问题。因此，地方团体是否垄断或分享对地区行政的控制，可能会影响到它们之间暴力的爆发，为了评估埃塞俄比亚社区冲突的原因，本项目将编制一个所有地区冲突的数据集，并在两年期间对两个选定地区进行人种学研究。首先，该项目将利用政府和非政府的信息来源，收集1995年至2006年期间埃塞俄比亚550个地区的地方冲突数据集。地区一级的数据将有助于进行统计分析，以检验暴力事件的爆发是否可归因于体制、人口或经济因素。第二，该项目将利用地区一级的数据集确定两个地区进行深入的人种学研究。将与选定社区的成员进行访谈和重点小组讨论，以确定行政当局、人口压力和资源限制实际上如何加剧群体之间的恐惧或竞争。这些人种学研究将进一步有助于确定如何在当地社会文化背景下理解族群冲突事件，这些冲突压倒了传统的争端解决机制，并可能造成暴力循环。该项目关系到非洲和其他发展中区域国家的稳定，这些国家与埃塞俄比亚有许多共同的经济和政治特点。它的研究将直接涉及权力下放改革的影响，权力下放改革往往被作为多民族国家争夺资源的体制解决办法加以推广。然而，权力下放如何影响群体之间暴力的爆发，特别是在这些改革能够在地方一级重新调整权力的情况下，仍有待证明。该项目的研究结果将使人们更好地了解体制变化如何与脆弱国家的人口和资源压力相互作用。从这项研究中得出的经验教训将使学者和决策者能够制定更适合于预防社区冲突的体制改革，这些冲突往往会演变为复杂的人道主义危机。